NorthHillsWx

HRRR has precip from the coastal back to the triangle. Just a hair too late for anything significant there but it’s a much more potent storm for just about everyone else and would certainly have a higher ceiling. On its island but definitely interesting to see nonetheless

That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above

Ensembles looked better than the Op and Euro actually improved. Hard to call a 1-2” advisory snow a bust if it doesn’t amount to that much haha

Other than the lowly ICON the NAM has been the absolute worst model this year

I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there

Last 2 HRRR runs are trying to get a coastal cranking at the end

ANDDDDD FROM WAY OUT IN LEFT FIELD HERE COMES THE NAAAAAMMMMM!!! Almost looks like it tried to get a coastal involved, kinda a hybrid system… oh poor NAM, you terrible model you

I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone?

You live in the wrong region my friend…

Not going to lie, how nice it is outside right now makes me ready to move onto spring. Might be the nicest day of the year so far with the full sunshine

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event!

One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light.

Honestly that portion of this “event” is most interesting. With the upper level trough and cold pool going directly overhead there would be convective elements and you could get some heavy snow showers. That’s not really shown on other guidance but to me thar has a higher chance of producing accumulating snow than anything with this

Widespread flizzard incoming on the GFS! Seriously, this threat is dead unless some dramatic shift happens bc 1) snowing in the afternoon lightly with surface temps above freezing will not stick and 2) the upper level system though strong is strung out and lacking moisture meaning the ceiling is extremely low even if all available factors in this setup were favorable. There’s no costal influence and waiting on a lee-side trough to develop enough forcing to squeeze whatever little moisture is available with downsloping and delayed cold to produce accumulating snow is like hoping your high school girlfriend will call you back. When the coastal left the chat a couple days ago this threat died.

IMO, RGEM is a very realistic looking output.

Honestly, despite differences in surface map and precip depiction, the above statement has been mostly true for several days. SW to central VA has been the focal point for whatever QPF this upper level system will bring and it’s been that way across most modeling (NAM and it’s mood swings not included)

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

Very similar look to Canadian

RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north

I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute

I’m sure Virginia Beach, the snow capital of the south, will cash out again

One will fold, and it will be the GFS

Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees

If I was in northern VA I’d feel really good right now… positive trends today so far for “something” this way