NorthHillsWx
-
Posts
5,806 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
-
1-2” then a glaze of ice color me happy -
19.6 out this morning. Whatever falls first Friday night will definitely stick.
-
Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.
-
Always the last to fold. Don’t blame them.
-
Agreed. They usually undercut guidance with snow cover though. Probably a big melt though but at this point i just hope there’s something to worry about melting
-
Dec 2018 was wild. NW wake had 10” while southern Wake had a coating.
-
It’s highly likely that front end IS our storm in the snowfall department
-
These are the storms we were raised on. Time to book a hotel in roxboro
-
Kinda exactly what we expect to get from most miller A’s. Don’t think this is ironed out until Thursday
-
GFS is 1-2” snow then ice for RDU. Stays below freezing for duration
-
GFS minimal changes
-
Icon went way west with SLP
-
I’m not going as far as to say we’ve been NAM’d (because it’s honestly believable given other modeling) but that’s a beautiful run for this entire forum just about
-
NAM with a hell of a front end thump
-
You’re in a great spot
-
A good thing going for us is ensembles have largely been better than op runs from each of the model suites. To me that says there is better potential for this to trend positively for snow lovers than the opposite. Call it a gut feeling, whatever you want, but I think 18z and 0z might improve across the board for snowfall
-
That is an incredible ensemble look at this range.
-
Tough spot to be for winter weather, even in this forum. So that’s saying something
-
Historically I’ve used the Ukie for predominantly fodder or entertainment. But I could say the same for the Icon, and I’m willing to hang my hat on that at the moment
-
Every 12z model so far has been a warning level event for RDU…
-
It nailed the Raleigh heat island
-
Yea. And track is fine
-
Strung out, no rates
-
Yes but time and time again I’ve seen that northern edge of freezing rain end up as more sleet and 925 modeled too high, especially if the surface is that cold. There are very few instances that come to mind of freezing rain and 27 in RDU.
-
With surface temps in the mid 20’s I’d have to think a lot of that freezing rain modeled would likely be sleet. 1-3” of sleet/snow with a glaze of ice would be acceptable in my neighborhood
