NorthHillsWx

0.42” last night brings the MTD total to 11.35”. Some areas got much much more

I am confused with the systems organization today. That naked swirl is definitely the COC recon found but there is no reason why is should be going south. It doesn’t appear to be part of a larger cyclonic gyre but I guess that is the only explanation

I actually think it looks a whole lot better overall. It’s developed banding on the eastern side and on satellite it looks like the thunderstorms have consolidated into a singular mass vs popcorn storms. “Center” is west of main convection but otherwise this looks closer to a TS than last night. Westerly shear is clearly a factor at this stage. So far, Euro seems to be handling development the best. I am not sure early development matters as much. The best conditions this system encounters will be north of Cuba as it parallels the Florida coast. I’d look for a tight COC and a well formed CDO if RI is to happen. Actual strength leaving the carribean will not matter much on the overall ceiling this system has given the POTENTIAL for RI. I’m more concerned with the structure and shear from the upper level system to the west

Over .60” and raining this morning. This brings out total MTD well over 10”. For central and eastern NC it’s fortunate the majority of this hurricanes rains will fall over the western half of the state as we are fully saturated and waterlogged at this point EDIT: finished with 1.04” here which brings our MTD to an incredible 10.93” with more on the way this week! Cannot imagine a hurricane hitting central NC directly with this kind of saturated ground

Precursor rain event is not ideal. 3-6+ before the storm gets there for some of the mountain areas

Landfall: 105 kts 959 mb

They explicitly say it’s forecast to be a major at LF in the discussion. The only change between 5 pm and 11 was guidance has trended down as a whole. I’m taking all intensity guidance with a dump truck worth of salt grains until we get a center. And models initialize correctly.

What a freaking specimen to hit mainland Mexico while rapidly intensifying. I just cannot believe this happened two years in a row, though John is nowhere near Otis’s historic strength

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

I do think they probably saw the current state and models trending downward as maybe signs to be slightly less bullish at this time but I literally thought the exact same thing when I read it. IMO the forecast makes sense. There’s no reason to change anything from their track or intensity forecast at this time.

I haven’t posted in a little while and have been watching this storm develop but have a couple of things to say: 1) models (GFS guilty as charged) have proven to show their bias in developing these CAG systems too quickly. Clearly it’s taking this time to organize, and imo that was expected and models showing this jumping straight to a hurricane were out to lunch 2) the development signal overall track guidance has been EXCELLENT. I mean it’s been DAYS and the general idea of development and movement haven’t changed and that’s before we even have a named system 3) intensity forecast is… problematic at best. The ULL to the west and a trough interaction on approach are significant variables that are difficult to forecast. If aligned improperly, both features could impart shear on the system both as it develops and also as it heads towards the coast. However, as the ULL retrogrades NW, it could leave a window with an extremely favorable environment and explosive SST. Models are extremely split on how this interaction plays out. 4) I would not take eastern tracks off the table quite yet. The ULL I spoke to earlier is what pulls this westward. The further east this forms, the less of an influence that system will have. Ian is an example where models greatly overestimated the interaction with a ULL in the western GOM and yea, let’s just say those track forecasts were way off. That being said, guidance is extremely and I mean extremely clustered for there being a COC. I guess this is just directed to say not to let your guard down across the entire west coast of Florida. 5) Stop the hype. This isn’t pointed at this forum, but the hype level this storm has received is off the charts. I’ve seen extremely tempered weather folks on social media throwing out HAFS runs showing a 888 catastrophe for Florida while failing to post the 975 cat 1/2 from the next run. Extremely respected Mets seemingly have slurped the kool aid on this one and I can tell you it’s unlike any storm I’ve ever seen before from a social media perspective, considering it’s not even a tangible named system yet.

Frightening situation with John this evening. RI appears to have continued and the storm has popped a pinhole eye. What an amazing occurrence to have two rapidly intensifying hurricanes making landfall in mainland Mexico in back to back years

We picked up 0.33” yesterday morning. 9.89” MTD

A couple reasons- 1 being the the trough is being modeled as more progressive and slightly stronger so it picks up whatever forms and whisks it to to the NE while imparting strong westerly shear snd 2 the surge of drier air behind the trough is more entrained into the system. Another half-a-storm incoming, if todays modeling proves correct

Really a hostile environment showing up in northern GOM across modeling. 25-30kts shear and dry air lurking.

We picked up 0.37” of rain yesterday. Definitely a rainy month. 9.56”

One word of caution when looking at the GFS and CAG storms is that it is notorious for over estimating development and speed of development. These generally start as broad systems that can take awhile to organize. Looking at various models, a myriad of environments are depicted for the northern gulf including trough interactions, westerly shear, dry air. Not every model paints the most favorable picture for whatever develops and those details are not possible to resolve at this time. Now- that being said these also can be some of our worst storms, hurricane Michael being a prime example. I’d definitely use caution watching these endless GFS runs depicting gulf-filling monsters knowing it’s bias- but certainly it shows the potential. Key is all models show a storm in that timeframe and that is an extremely strong signal that a storm will form. NHC already bumped it up to an orange.

Something about this gives me the vibe this is “the storm” of the year for the US. Lots of potential next week lots of model watching coming up.

This is our year!

9.19” MTD makes 3 straight months here above 9” of rain

December 2018, before it turned to rain

I Definitely underestimated the rain today. 3.34” storm total. Though slightly above the 1-3” forecast it was within the higher amounts up to 6” range. And we were out of the higher amounts just south of here. Overall, I’d say a slight overachiever in central NC

GFS brings a cat 2 into Tampa, meaning it’s wrong. Hurricanes don’t hit Tampa

While not impressive on radar, the showers this morning are extremely efficient rainfall producers. Lots of wrecks on my way to work in garner this morning

Up to 2.44” here. Maybe a little more to go. 8.29” MTD. Temp has warmed to 73 degrees overnight. Really shows the front that was still attached to our LP system