NorthHillsWx

Two words: sun angle. Yes I said sun angle. I don’t care if it’s 25 degrees it will not stick in the middle of the day this time of year unless it’s ripping and that 0.25” will be half wasted in melting. Late February it’s guaranteed to be wet roads unless you have rates. We’ve seen this time and time again. I guarantee if the GFS verified no one on here would have snow covered roads. There’d be black ice the next day for sure. I love daytime snow except in late season bc it doesn’t stick unless it’s ripping. Good news is we have plenty of models showing more QPF and banding so this is moot unless the GFS verified.

With it falling in the afternoon and midday and light rates, GFS is wet roads and grass maybe covered

Though impactful bc it’s frozen precip, the GFS is a nuisance event and falls almost entirely in the afternoon with light rates. It’s probably a WWA storm for everyone but SE VA. Pathetic

Oh it’s pretty dang dry. About 0.25” of QPF

GFS is gonna be a 4-5 hour storm lol

Sounds like RAH has been on the southeast forum this afternoon! Literally sounds like this thread

We received 0.71” which brought our weekly total to 3.16”

lol reverse NAM’d!

It’s funny because every storm is different but seasonal trends oftentimes win out.

This is just and observation and not any sort of discussion but I love how the Canadian breaks out cold smoke over the Carolina’s as the coastal is pulling away as the ULL with the NS energy is passing by. Would be a nice way to end the event though very unlikely

Wind underperformed big time here. Not sure we gusted over 40 and it hasn’t even been that breezy since

Juicy here

EURO is a Raleigh-northeast storm

I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia

I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia

Va Beach sweet spot

Say about it what you will, but the GFS has been rock steady for several runs

I’m not going to speak for everyone bc the storm has definitely trended a little weaker and this is an IMBY post but RDU has probably been the biggest benefactor of trends since yesterday. It’s gone from a plain rain/ice look to crippling ice storm to now better chance of a sleet/snow event. QPF has gone down but I can speak for everyone when I say we’ll take that as a trade off for colder mid levels. Now we don’t want this to trend strung out but imo thats not likely. It wants to strengthen on the coast. Starting to think the triad-southeastern VA and the top two counties of NC below the border will be the sweet spot. There will likely be a nasty cutoff south of there. Not buying the all snow idea in Raleigh unless drastic changes occur the next couple days, it will be a mixed bag

The GFS, though still the warmest at mid levels, continues to chisel away at the warm nose from below. You’re starting to see the ZR area collapse and more sleet. This was discussed the past few days as a trend with miller-As and we’re now seeing it on the model. What was once a thick warm nose across a lot of the piedmont is now looking like a relatively narrow transition zone (expected) with more sleet than ZR

Canadian all snow for northern 1/2 of NC but definitely less precip than 0z. GFS was less precip but once again colder. CMC will not be well received west of triangle…

I think everyone on here, me included, is guilty of IMBY posting and the RDU crowd can hijack a storm thread from time to time. As @strongwxnc just said knowing poster locations usually helps. If y’all wanna see a sh*t show hop over to the MA forum starting with the 0z runs from last night

There’s no doubt trends are not good in foothills and western VA. Also the extreme HECS solutions seem to be fading. But this looks nothing like a nothing burger for the eastern 2/3 of NC and VA. Need the better models to report in shortly

But it is significantly colder and winds up into a major storm for central and eastern areas. I get it, trends aren’t good for WNC. But that was the best run yet for a lot of folks here from that (crappy) model

ICON was not weaker and is a major storm for the eastern 2/3 on NC and SE Virginia. Also much colder

What could slow this down/cause a pivot