NorthHillsWx

I will say this- I’m not pushing the panic button yet unless the euro/cmc cave at 12z. CAMs struggle with LP development due to convective feedback and we really aren’t in the timeframe thar is considered to be their wheelhouse yet. The 6z euro and 0z Canadian had actually trended very favorably from their previous runs. Definitely more on edge than 24 hours ago but still feel like central NC-east is in a good spot

A VERY good analog of this system in the January 28 event last year. Arctic front with late LP development along it. This storm has colder air to work with but dang the Synoptics line up incredibly similar to this setup and the snow map is very similar to what modeling is showing

An amazing run for that area. Just hours and hours of light-moderate snow. Would be an incredible event

I’ll be honest- this is a tough one. We’re relying on a low and precip to literally pop overhead as the energy is passing by. No way any model will have a good handle on exactly when that will happen 48 hours out. Literally a few hours makes a huge difference. Not like there will be a precipitation shield moving through the south we/models can hone in on before it gets here. If I’m west of the Triangle, I’m sweating now. Triangle has the nerves on edge after living rent free yesterday. NE NC and SE VA feeling pretty awesome

Only saving grace is the freezing line is offshore the coast and down to savannah Georgia and If taken verbatim then every corner of wake county has a least 5 inches of frozen on the ground after the storm…

I’d imagine the snow areas would benefit from ratios much better that 10:1 with that kind of cold air. Holy hell that’s a mega storm for everyone on this board

So, how bout that almost 6 inches of sleet. You think that would stick around till March?

We’ve ALL been NAM’d

As I said earlier, if it’s just sleet and in the 20’s that’s a huge win. I haven’t had snow on my driveway since 2018 in December. A winter storm with snow/sleet, temps way below freezing, and no freezing rain is almost unheard of here. So if the pretty snow map doesn’t verify and we get 2-3” of glacier, I will be the happiest person on the board. As for the no precip part… definitely praying we don’t trend further east, but honestly a weak, slider type system is what gives us our snow most of the time. I like the trends today and I love where we’re at

I mean, that’s almost identical. Thanks!

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day.

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point

Keep in mind ICON doesn’t show sleet or freezing rain on this depiction but it’s pretty similar to the Euro… Has triangle staying pure snow tho!

Not at all. We’ll take the check, please!

Nope, you had your storm. Share some with your brethren further east

A la last January

I love how in Raleigh we literally do better 99 times out of 100 with weaker, slider type systems than blockbuster lows like last weekend. Excited for this one, perfect setup for us and the freezing line is nowhere near wake county

Don’t think anyone thought they were bad for central NC

Agreed. We’re in a great spot given all the recent runs except the super suppressed Canadian solution from 12z

TBH- for once in recent memory I feel like the the Triangle is in a good spot

Oh that’s a pretty sight

***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen

Anyway you slice the models today: 1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out 3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east 4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today

Long range NAM but that’s a big time storm growing at the end of the run. Also- the duration of this even looks amazing

I’ll take anything as long as it stays below freezing once the wintry precipitation starts and that there is enough snow or sleet to shovel. This looks like a good bet to get 1-3” of snow or sleet in the triangle with brutally cold temps. Honestly I don’t care if it’s just sleet 2” of sleet is a good storm to me. Models certainly showing a warm nose but steadfast on frigid surface temps. Keep the freezing rain out and this (and with these profiles it looks like an expansive sleet storm) will be a great storm regardless of total snowfall. Models are trending towards this type of storm and I’m perfectly ok with that!