NorthHillsWx

Lots of lighting in eastern eyewall

This system has strengthened 30 kts since 5 am yesterday and the pace hasn’t slowed. And that’s while undergoing an ERC and developing a core. Now that’s out of the way, I only expect the rate of strengthening to increase through the day. Only 15 kts a major makes…

Going into beast mode once the CDO wraps around, which it’s doing. Downplay intensity all you want, I think this thing is right on schedule. I’m going 110-115 kt peak still and I Believe it comes at the landfall advisory

Athens to Clemson to Asheville…. Get ready

Isaac looks like a hurricane this morning. Clearing out an eye. These mid latitude storms are always interesting to me

Flight level winds way up this pass, over 100 kts

John is back from the bed and now explicitly forecast to rapidly intensify into a cat 1 possibly 2 before a second Mexico landfall. This is insane

Everything about this storm is on schedule. It was a 55 kt tropical storm this morning and is a 75 kt hurricane this evening while organizing a core. Once that happens there is literally nothing holding this back from continuing to strengthen, at what pace I’m not sure, but this is a guaranteed 3+. Large core storms aren’t going to spin up 40 kts in 12 hours but this one doing 20 is impressive

It’s probably been said on here but Atlanta to the upstate and Asheville need to prepare for extended outages and tree damage on top of historic flooding. This is going to be one those areas never forget, sadly. Seems pretty locked in at this point

5pm was one of the more dire sounding advisories you’ll hear from NHC

Me thinks this is going to be storm porn as it relates to a classic looking eye when it peaks. Getting the look already

As for dry air intrusion- this is totally normal for any developing hurricane. With the lack of shear at present, and the extremely vigorous convection the system is generating, I expect it to be easy to mix out as the core develops. This is a CLASSIC look of a storm primed to go. There is no inhibiting factor at present to prevent steady to rapid intensification. This is on schedule and to be honest that is a terrifying satellite look at this stage

Hurricane upgrade incoming at 11

Tallahassee is going to get smoked and the further west this goes the odds increase that the peak surge will hit a populated beach town. Things are in motion right now that are leading up to a historic and devastating hurricane. Only saving grace is the broad circulation may keep peak winds down just a bit but that will not affect surge potential or inland wind threat one bit. Very disheartening to see the satellite look this morning and know this thing is about to go over the loop current

Tallahassee might get one of their worst storms

0.42” last night brings the MTD total to 11.35”. Some areas got much much more

I am confused with the systems organization today. That naked swirl is definitely the COC recon found but there is no reason why is should be going south. It doesn’t appear to be part of a larger cyclonic gyre but I guess that is the only explanation

I actually think it looks a whole lot better overall. It’s developed banding on the eastern side and on satellite it looks like the thunderstorms have consolidated into a singular mass vs popcorn storms. “Center” is west of main convection but otherwise this looks closer to a TS than last night. Westerly shear is clearly a factor at this stage. So far, Euro seems to be handling development the best. I am not sure early development matters as much. The best conditions this system encounters will be north of Cuba as it parallels the Florida coast. I’d look for a tight COC and a well formed CDO if RI is to happen. Actual strength leaving the carribean will not matter much on the overall ceiling this system has given the POTENTIAL for RI. I’m more concerned with the structure and shear from the upper level system to the west

Over .60” and raining this morning. This brings out total MTD well over 10”. For central and eastern NC it’s fortunate the majority of this hurricanes rains will fall over the western half of the state as we are fully saturated and waterlogged at this point EDIT: finished with 1.04” here which brings our MTD to an incredible 10.93” with more on the way this week! Cannot imagine a hurricane hitting central NC directly with this kind of saturated ground

Precursor rain event is not ideal. 3-6+ before the storm gets there for some of the mountain areas

Landfall: 105 kts 959 mb

They explicitly say it’s forecast to be a major at LF in the discussion. The only change between 5 pm and 11 was guidance has trended down as a whole. I’m taking all intensity guidance with a dump truck worth of salt grains until we get a center. And models initialize correctly.

What a freaking specimen to hit mainland Mexico while rapidly intensifying. I just cannot believe this happened two years in a row, though John is nowhere near Otis’s historic strength

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

I do think they probably saw the current state and models trending downward as maybe signs to be slightly less bullish at this time but I literally thought the exact same thing when I read it. IMO the forecast makes sense. There’s no reason to change anything from their track or intensity forecast at this time.