NorthHillsWx

If it snows and sticks to my mulch enough so that I can see it on the ring cam I’ll call it a win

Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season!

Agreed- pretty much everything has continued to show a period of snow.

Given the dynamics involved with this system, I don’t think ground temps matter as much as they would for a lighter event. Snowfall coming down at 2” an hour will stick to a frying pan right off the cook top… It obviously will melt your accumulation somewhat so it won’t be maximized but you can get heavy totals with warm ground when the rates are what are being suggested. That being said- the NW trend took the vast majority of this board away from the party. The 1-4” of backend snowfall shown on models for much of NC is not going to be enough to overcome the warm ground, such as will happen in VA. A storm track inland over southern NC is not a conducive storm track for accumulating snow in these parts. Sure there will probably be some backend flakes but this is a Virginia storm for sure

Folks in DC would implode

This has gone from token flakes to perhaps a major foot+ storm but unfortunately looks like the NW trend has commenced leaving most of us in the sanitarium per usual

It’s definitely going to snow in Raleigh since I’ll be out of town…

GFS still bullish on Monday morning. NAM flip flopping. Actually starting to seem like some areas Raleigh east may actually have a chance at a small or novelty event. I’m sure Euro is Dr No but GFS has been consistent and it has been shown on NAM as well…

0.13” last couple days brings us to 2.58” for the month. AC is officially on, house temp up to 73 yesterday (I try to keep closer to 70). Ridiculous

Well, we’re inside of 5 days and Sunday night looks interesting at least for wintry weather. Wouldn’t expect much more than a novelty event at most but pretty crazy if we can get any wintry weather Sunday after shattering record highs in the mid-upper 70’s Saturday

One thing I’ll say is Sunday/Monday looks to feature some sort of interesting weather. Might have severe weather then a rain/snow mix on back to back days. Would be nice to break out of the boring weather we’ve been stuck in for a day or two…

How about the 947mb low the 0z GFS spit out over New England the 2-3rd…

AC in late December… yuck! We turned off our heat yesterday. I just landed in Louisiana visiting family and can say it is summer-like with humidity here. Looks like we’ll be into the 80’s here next couple days

Unfortunately I’ll have to agree with you until I see some evidence otherwise. We’re at the point where we can’t even drum up fantasy snows and the mountains can’t even get a snow. If it’s not snowing in banner elk it ain’t gonna be snowing in Raleigh. We’re punting well into January at this point

Looks like a cool down to start the new year (January 3-4) but until the PNA flips I just am not buying anything frozen in the Southeast and it looks like we’ll have to wait some time into January for that to happen. Wash, rinse, repeat with the pattern we’re stuck in. Lows this week will be 20-30 degrees ABOVE average!!! That’s absurd!!!

I completely agree. -PNA absolutely cancels out all others.

The NW trend would’ve worked out so well for winter weather with this system but…. Great Lakes low…

Another good rainfall, we finished 0.44” which brings our MTD to 2.45”

.35” with the first round. See if we get anything else overnight. Temps been hovering between 38.2-38.8 for the last few hours

If only if only it was 6 degrees colder… 38 and rain, we excel at miserable weather in winter

The gravity waves on radar this evening are pretty awesome to watch

I am betting on a blanking for RDU this winter in the snowfall department. Raleigh will not see measurable snowfall this season

Wondering how long into January we’re gonna have to punt now

The torch that was the 06z GFS run was an all-timer

Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain