NorthHillsWx

Loving it but the fall food plots are taking a beating at the farm. Not even enough moisture for dew in mornings

El Niño didn’t work either

It looks increasingly likely we will finish with 0.00” in my backyard which would be the driest month (obviously) following the wettest month since I’ve lived at my house. Also, an entire month without rain?!?! I know mountain areas are happy without any additional flooding but I’ve gotta think with all the fuel laying on the ground we will have a substantial wildfire threat if this dry streak continues which there are no indications of it letting up

There are some very high end videos from Oscar in Cuba but I am not sure of their authenticity. Definitely seems to be some misinformation out there. I firmly believe this was likely a high end 2, low end 3 especially where that eastern eyewall came ashore due to satellite presentation, pinhole eye and radar plus the lighting that was ongoing through landfall suggesting a quickly strengthening system. Very unfortunate we didn’t get recon but this storm was strengthening quickly into landfall in my opinion. Will there be enough evidence with such a small core for the upgrade?

Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1

I think some people in the eyewall are going to be surprised

It even looks like it might be starting to pop an eye

I would bet good money with the radar/sat presentation at the moment that Oscar is at least a cat 2

Oscar is an extremely well-organized micro cane. Eye showing up nicely on radar now. Wish someone had known to chase this, would’ve been incredibly interesting watching that tiny eyewall move through https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

With Nadine/Oscar both finding land, the amazing amount of landfalls this season continues

NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow

Belize is lucky Nadine didn’t have more time over water. That storm was going to go beast mode with 24 hours more over water

What an absolutely strange last few months in rainfall department. 0.54” in June, over 15” in September, and now looking like we’ll finish October without any measurable rainfall. From the wettest month since I’ve lived here to the driest.

First 30’s of the season! 38.5 with very light frost on rooftops

Almost neutral-weak La Niña might be more helpful than a strong El Niño or string La Nina we’ve become accustomed to last 5 years. Blocking has been excellent late summer-now. I’m sure that collapses but I feel better this year.

Still no rain here this month. Wonder if we make it through October without measurable rainfall

It looks like a tropical depression to me. It’s been generating organized convection over a tight LLC overnight and into this morning

After getting 15” last month I’m not going to say we “need rain” here but we’re sitting at 0.0” for the month

Totally disagree with the “surge is already baked in” notion with small storms. With a large storm like Helene, Ike, Katrina, Laura, yes, sure. If it was a large strong hurricane when the storms winds reached shelf waters, landfall intensity matters very little for surge values. There is nothing wrong with over-preparing and I think Florida did an incredible job getting people out of harms way. The majority of the deaths from this storm were from the tornado outbreak which you cannot really prepare for

IMO the storm did exactly what you’d expect a cat 3 to do. I think some hyperbole was due to the extreme strength of the storm earlier in its life, but that tiny 1 mile eyewall wasn’t going to have any impact on landfall impacts. This is a novel concept, but sometimes a major landfall can be just that, a major landfall and the exact impacts one would expect. Every major isn’t going to be Helene or Katrina, but this was a highly damaging storm and did exactly what a low-end cat 3 should do- 8-12’ surge in eyewall, 100-115 mph gusts just inland. The tornado outbreak, however, was exceptional. This storm likely will be retired due to its historic strength and widespread damage in Florida. So far Florida receives an A+ for hurricane prep for all 3 storms this year. Desantis, love him or hate him, is very effective at managing hurricane impacts in Florida.

Someone said it earlier, but my god the tornado outbreak over water east of Florida on that loop. Probably some EF3+ waterspouts

Agreed. It’s a very populated area, just not Tampa populated. Still, from reports south and north, it seems the devastating surge was limited to a small area, we’re just waiting to see how hard that area got hit. It seems strange to downplay 5-8’ surge (like many of the areas weve seen reports from experienced) it just doesn’t seem as severe being those same areas experienced that same surge two weeks ago with Helene. Still a lot of surge

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things.

Cantore was there. Said it was on par with Helene’s surge at his location

Strongest winds were on the north when it made landfall