NorthHillsWx

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts

Picked up 0.21” from the frontal passage this afternoon. 3.53” for the month now. Temp has crashed to 65.1 from a high earlier today of 84.0

I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha! Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts

I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes

While I’m sure this strengthens when it turns northeast this is one of the worst model/forecast intensity performances of the season. SHIPS had a very high chance of RI even 24 hours ago for the present time. Seems everything underestimated the north, NW shear. That being said, the system has a vigorous circulation and with shear vector improving and bath tub water beneath it this should still be a strengthing hurricane through LF though it will definitely be a half-a-cane and 85 kts seems like a reasonable ceiling, which is far less than what it seemed most of the week

Pretty sure this is going to be downgraded to a TS based on recon at next advisory

I’m not going to say there’s a 0% chance being it’s over bathtub water, but it’s less than 10% this thing gets even close to major imo. Heck, it’s entire center of circulation is now exposed and recon’s first pass has a small area of stronger winds well away from the center. It’s definitely not strengthening and if anything has weakened since overnight

Pamela really seems to be struggling with some westerly shear and dry air. You can see outflow boundaries from collapsing storms on the NW side and cloud tops are definitely being sheared from the west. Hurricane hunters will be in the storm later today and I’m wondering if they will find more shear is present than being analyzed at the moment. Definitely not the sexy hurricane I was expecting that we’d seen on models over previous few days. NHC continues to advertise the storm being near major hurricane status at landfall but I’m seriously doubtful looking at the presentation this morning and the fact this thing is about to be ejected to the NE. Likely to be a half-a-cane regardless

HWRF brings the low off the NC coast to hurricane status in rapid fashion this evening

May have spoken a bit early . We had 2.56” overnight and still raining lightly. Looks like we were on the very low end in the county too, seeing a lot of 6”+ lollipops your direction

Picked up 0.02” overnight and this morning for the first measurable rain of the month. That makes our 15 day total 0.04” so it’s been very dry. Tonight looks promising so hopefully we can get a soaking rain!

0.01” more than we got or have received today at my house. Had a great storm at Rex hospital yesterday evening where I’m staying as my first child was born yesterday morning! Definitely was a good break to watch the lightning and rain from the room while my daughter napped. Needed it, zombie status today

8 US landfalls including two Hurricanes and a major plus a major (one of the most expensive and damaging hurricanes in history) landfall in Mexico and a strong, rare hit on Newfoundland? I am struggling to see how this alone is a dude, not including the fish storms and ACE

Anyone downplaying this season is a joke. Numbers, ACE, major landfalls… I mean come on

One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery

Sam has cleared out a symmetrical, beautiful eye once again. This is an incredible storm

Pretty incredible to maintain this intensity for this long these don’t happen every year…

This has been quite the specimen for sure. And absolutely gorgeous this morning to boot

Picked up 0.02” overnight my mtd is now 3.53”

It’s possible Sam could reach or exceed 40 units of ACE. That’s incredible

Dry as of late. Looking like 3.51” is going to be the total for the month. Beautiful weather, even yesterday’s 87 degrees didn’t feel too terrible. Rest of week looks amazing

Sam looks quite healthy atm.

For those tracking seasonal ACE we will be exceeding the typical year end value for the Atlantic overnight. With two likely areas of development and Sam ongoing as a major hurricane for the next couple of days, we are likely to end up well above the average by next week. Knowing the frequency of strong October storms in recent years, the 2021 ACE value could be incredibly high by seasons end. Sam is likely to exceed 30 units, as Larry did earlier this year, making these exceptionally high ACE producing storms