NorthHillsWx

Looking more and more likely we’ll get 3 NS before June goes out. Obviously nothing strong but a fast start to a potentially very busy season

Not surprisingly, the abnormally dry area in NC has EXPLODED from 4% of the state to 66% of the state just in the last week according this weeks drought monitor! That’s a massive change and I can say that given the infrequent nature of the rains of last month, many areas were already seeing very dry conditions despite not being classified as such. I expect drought conditions to overtake the eastern half of the state by next week and worsen unless we get a tropical system. Pop up showers aren’t going to get it done at this point, and obviously we haven’t even had any of those in 2+ weeks

Got me

Some of those northern gulf rigs have been gusting 55-60 mph since yesterday. While I doubt that mixes down, it just shows that this storm has a very broad amount of energy. TS gusts showing up on multiple land based sites now in Texas

And we officially have Alberto. Welcome to the party, 2024 Hurricane season. Gonna be a wild one

It’s amazing how the concave shape of the SW gulf seems to wrap up storms. The convection almost perfectly aligns with the coastline

This looks like a tropical storm now. I bet we get a name. Still a broad circulation but convection probably fits criteria for our first name of the year.

Per the GFS it never rains again. Might be turning into a dessert

Recon validated NHC- no closed center yet. Also finding winds to minimal TS force well north of the “center” though we already had plenty of buoy and rig confirmation of those wind speeds. This will certainly bc a close call as to whether it becomes a TC or not

It is pretty concerning to see this low shear environment over the GOM this early in the season. Not that this system will take advantage bc of its sprawling nature but that could be a bad sign down the road. Usually these early season GOM storms are quite sheared for all or most of their lifespans, this storm has a beautiful upper level anticyclone spanning the entire gulf

The creek that runs through my neighborhood has almost completely dried up. I have never seen it reduced to a trickle like this before. It’s usually 8-10 yards wide and now you can step over it.

At least most of y’all had two months worth of rain last month. This is going to be pushing the lowest precip month ever (0.79”) since I’ve lived at my current house (6 years). We have just 0.31” through 18 days. Add in the heat, it’s a tinder box

No rain chances here for at least another week. We are in a localized drought. I’m not sure we will even get to 1/2” for the month

Only 0.29” here MTD. It’s dry as a bone

Looks like an incredibly dry stretch incoming. Summer temps incoming as well. Enjoy the slightly cooler weather while it lasts bc our first death ridge is incoming. Hopefully models are overhyping it and it breaks down allowing for some breaks but it looks like extended hot and dry weather is a almost certainty

A measly 0.02” last night brings us to 0.29” MTD. Looks extremely dry going forward. For areas that missed out on all the rain over the last month, get those sprinklers ready. GFS brings us <0.50” through the run and Euro and CMC are completely dry. Going into the last few days of June with under 1/2” mtd total is a possibility here

I feel like this summers going to turn me into the new Shetley. We’ve been on the outside looking in from every rain event and are probably running about a foot and a half below what folks in triad and upstate have this year

Measly 0.07” here. Got the split, 1”+ amounts north and south of us. 0.27” MTD

I don’t want to get into the CC debate but when you look at the east coast as a whole, the record sea temps, and some pattern anomalies that seem to have more influence over our ability to snow than in years past, there’s a reason the entire east coast is in rarified air when it comes to snow droughts extending multi-years. There’s a very strong argument that our fragile baseline state for snow (usually 32-33 degrees through the column even for some major events in the past) may be too warm now simply bc the water temps storms have to work with warm us above that fragile dance. There’s a reason that in the south at least there hasn’t been a coastal storm since 2017 outside some areas of the triad in 2018 that didn’t end up raining. The few snows we’ve had since then have all come from modes other coastals. Watch our 100, 50 year averages decline and you start to realize this is a very strong trend. Seeing your average snow decrease from 7 to 5” over 50 years may not sound like a lot but losing 30% of your seasonal total on average means a lot of snowless years will come given 1 storm can send you above that. I worry we may be shattering snow drought records by the end of this season. Now I know it can still snow and all this is thrown out the table for a while if we do luck into one so I’ll be right there tracking once November rolls around, but the long term trends and prospects for snow in the future are pretty bleak

Just picked up .20” of rain from a very heavy shower. Temp made it up to 92 before the rain. Extremely muggy 79 now with steam rising from everything. First rain since May 27

El Niño La Niña, doesn’t matter, there’s nothing we can get snow from anymore

Just saw the NWS monthly report and RDU never hit freezing the entire month, marking the first time since 1945 and only the 2nd time in history that the site failed to fall to 32 degrees for the month of March. Overall it was the 9th warmest March in history for RDU

Yep

Some hints of tropical development next week in the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas

Irma actually weakened to a 4 over the water before re-intensifying into a 5 before landfall in Cuba. As it moved over the Florida straights post-Cuba, it re-attained cat 4 status before making LF in the keys, but the core became disrupted due to dry air and modest NW wind shear. Watch a radar loop of the storm approaching the keys, it is evident when the core becomes disrupted. It was a half-a-cane from the keys to Naples LF. While the Cuban disruption certainly kept intensity down, it did have time to reorganize and reintensify to a 4 while on approach, but shear and drier air were more an issue as it approached the US as it did reform a beautiful symmetrical core after Cuba, briefly. If the storm had tracked further north towards Miami instead of brushing Cuba, it may have weakened from the same factors that weakened it dramatically from the keys to Naples. Or it may have missed those as it arrived before they did. My money is on Irma being a monster cat 5 if it had stayed north and hadn’t slowed down while hitting Cuba, but there were variables other than land at play that contributed to the weakening before US landfall