NorthHillsWx

Absolute utter devastation. This looks more like tornado damage. Just wow

Union island seems to be ground zero. Hope loss of life is minimal but the picture is what you’d expect from a high end 4 slamming full speed into a tiny island - catastrophic damage

I had grown so used to looking at perfection when viewing satellite of this storm that it’s current 155 mph state looks like trash, lol

3 deaths confirmed from the grenadines so far. Seems like Union island may have taken the worst hit as it never got into the eye. Per the report I read, 90% of the homes were destroyed with every building on the island sustaining damage. Comms are obviously limited and word of mouth can be inaccurate but word getting out is not sounding good so far.

As for surge- the Caribbean is very deep around the islands and so it limits water build up. It’s not like the gulf or Atlantic seaboard north of Florida. High surge is always localized to specific land features such as bays and river mouths and much more localized. While looking at Kingston, it does at face value look surge prone but there are some caveats: 1) the reef outside likely breaks up waves that limit the “driving” surge we get on the gulf coast 2) it would take a storm that brought the right front quad onshore directly over that bay to push water in, as described by the above poster. A side swipe or a storm passing to the south will not cause major water build up 3) though this isn’t a small storm, at least for now its core isn’t crazy large. If it does LF in Jamaica, there will be surge issues, but it will be limited to the right front quad. Due to aforementioned deep water surrounding the island, you won’t get the massive water buildup before the storm arrives you’d otherwise expect While Surge is certainly a serious threat, I don’t think catastrophic will happen due to the above reasons.

My 0.02- I’m going with climo + shear winning out. Beryl hasn’t surprised to this point, maybe a higher peak than what we thought to be possible, but it was apparent days out there would be few mitigating factors. It didn’t explosively strengthen in the face of a poor or questionable environment, it maxed out in a very conducive environment. That environment is running out. It faces high shear from a TUTT. It faces possible trough/dry air interactions. It will have land interaction with Jamaica. I think Jamaica is in trouble bc it is so close and so strong, but beyond that, its current strength has no bearing. I’d lean heavily on a cat 2-3 strike on Jamaica followed by a rapidly weakening storm into the Yucatán. In the gulf, shear could decrease, but there might be dry air issues (normal after a trough passes especially this early). There’s a reason some models essentially evaporate the system. Long story short- while you should never let your guard down with an active system in the gulf, Beryl has more mitigating factors going against it than anything that could help reintensify the system from this point through to the end of its life. Perhaps the synoptic setup changes as we get down the road for the gulf but I’m leaning with climo and what we know right now as for expected environment. NHC is smart to keep this a H moving into Yucatán and I have no issue with their forecast. I just know it will be weakening at that point

Seeing intensity forecasts ranging from cat 4 to 50 knots is crazy

My god. That is all. Speechless.

This is usually how annular canes start but that’s just not possible in the carribean in July, right?

I mean this is so borderline I can’t fault them for going either side of a 5. I swear this was likely maxed out 2 hours ago and those FL winds are reflective of that. I could see an upgrade if damage warrants it but I doubt this data warrants the upgrade. For both Ian and Michael there was conclusive wind data for the upgrade.

It peaked a couple hours ago but it’s very close to a 5 now

I wish we had recon 2 hours ago

That gust to 121 in Grenada is sobering. That’s 30 miles from the eye, in the southern quad of the storm. It’s also on the extreme southern end of the island. Good lord

Just from Beryl, our ACE may approach our average level for mid-August by the end of this week. How’s that for a head start for the ACE folks out there?

IMO there’s evidence this is already at cat 5. Radar, flight data, and satellite could all be used to say this is a 5. It’d close. I don’t think it’s done deepening yet either. 150 or 160, not terribly much difference. At least it missed the larger islands, those islands it did hit are likely shredded and will be uninhabitable after the storm for a long period. I hope everyone has safe shelter, I expect Irma-like images after the storm passes. As others have said, when you see these mesovortices you can get gusts much higher than the stated sustained wind. I have no doubt extreme winds well over cat 5 are being experienced at least in gusts. This storm is an absolute specimen. Hopefully we avoid loss of life

You can see some mesovortices rotating around the eye, similar to Michael’s presentation just before landfall. I have no doubt there are some cat 5 winds in some of these. This thing is high end and mean

Has the radar presentation of a 5… Just saying

Good News: this looks like it has gained enough latitude that the worst of the core might pass just to the north of Grenada.

130 mph 959 mb

Picked up 0.04” before midnight for a monthly total of 0.46”. You read that right. Under 1/2” for the freaking month. Picked up 0.05” after midnight so at least July starts with something

Yep… SFMR winds above 120 too. This is back to a 4

Recon finding stronger winds than last nights flight. Seems to support the current intensity, though I am sure it dropped below MH for a period early this morning

Nope, not good at all. Radar presentation is rapidly improving. I agree, the CDO is likely to become more symmetric again and radar seems to be confirming that with a strong band wrapping all the way around the eye. What looked like the islands may be catching a break a few hours ago now looks like a larger and just as strong storm may be the reality.

Doesn’t want to fully complete the ERC. Extreme hot towers going up now. Let’s see if this pushes it past the finish line. EDIT: radar looks like a complete ERC. Strengthening seems imminent

Picked up 0.11” for a monthly total of 0.42”. Unbelievable drought setting in, looks like another extended dry period