NorthHillsWx

I do agree- Savannah may catch a break here. They are firmly out of the heavy bands and I don’t see this back building over them unless this goes WAY SE. The more northern track probably spared them. Charleston may have a bit of a break after this band passes but there’s no way they don’t keep getting pounded with rain next few days given model consistency there. Being a lot of the city already has 8-14” of rain it seems likely that the 16-20” forecasts there will verify with some areas getting much more. I think the next heavy band that sets up over Charleston could cause the “catastrophic” flooding as the flood situation is already bad there and there’s literally nowhere for the water to go at this point. It’s one band away from reaching that point already.

It seems like this may be becoming a bigger deal for piedmont areas in NC. My rainfall forecast has been increased from 5-8” to 8-12” since yesterday. Coastal areas are much better at handling that volume of rain since it’s flat. However, those are hurricane Fran/Floyd type values for inland areas and that’s on top of a lot of rain last two weeks. This could be a bad situation further inland than was thought yesterday

Bad take of the day

Eastern eyewall is much stronger. Nearly all chaser reports from steinhatchee north are tame. Meanwhile horseshoe beach measuring gusts to 100 and I am sure Suwannee and cross city are getting raked. This thing really came together. Pretty structure this morning, eye clearing out on all satellite loops.

Hurricane. Upgrade official

Cedar key is taking it on the chin with that very strong eastern band. Those are probably the strongest winds in the entire system

FL winds over 90 kts corroborated the radar velocities showing >85 kts in the same band. SFMR values up to 65 kts. I believe we have a hurricane

Hurricane has boobies

It sucked in the giant pool of dry air that’s been floating around it all evening

Recon with 90 kt FL winds in that Eastern band…

Velocities over 100 mph showing up. With pressure fall’s continuing the wind will catch up. I still think 85 kts is attainable as the ceiling. Still battling residual dry air, two storms in a row we’ve been fortunate with on that regard

Getting solid pressure falls on recon

Yea recon kinda aligns with what I posted about a little while ago. The dry air it sucked in earlier is entrained in the core. Storms are firing and not sustaining. Downdrafts are probably affecting the stability of any cohesive eyewall at the moment. Due to the overall improvement of the cyclones structure, I doubt dry air is still getting into the circulation, but it’s dealing with the effects from earlier. This will eventually mix out but until it does the storm will struggle. You can kinda see the popcorn storms within the CDO on satellite illustrating this. Recon timed it perfectly for when the most recent eyewall collapse occurred so it’s probably in a wind minimum at the moment.

Definitely improving structure but dry air is certainly entrained. Watch how unstable the eyewall is. Certainly seems like the storm has developed a solid core but until the dry air it sucked in earlier is fully mixed out I don’t see this strengthening too much. That can happen quick though- see Beryl

I freaking love watching these things strengthen inside radar range. We’ve gotten to see every stage of this one’s development on US radar. Excellent weather entertainment. This definitely looks like a hurricane now and one that’s wrapping up quickly

This looks like the “h” word on radar now

In my opinion this is organizing extremely quickly. Look at banding outside of the core. It’s setting itself up for rapid intensification. I’m actually impressed with how quickly this has come together since this time yesterday. Every time I look at satellite or radar it looks like a more mature system. I think cat 2 is attainable

It is honestly amazing how talented downtown Tampa is at avoiding tropical systems

1” exactly yesterday, 1.07” mtd

Recon should provide a well timed pass here in a bit

Yep it’s just continued to look more and more impressive since I posted too. This looks like a very clear attempt at an eyewall

It looks like a nascent eyewall is now forming. Once this develops a cohesive core it might be off to the races before landfall. Unlike that storm last year that peaked too early over the gulf, this looks like it will be strengthening into landfall. I really wouldn’t rule out this making a run at 85 kts

Nothing here. We got split.

SE NC and OBX really seem to be the places with the highest threat of hurricane conditions from this system. Guidance has really honed in on that area over the last 18 hours

Might have us a little tropical action next week in the Carolina’s. Starting to look like the Gulf threat has become a little more ominous for the Carolina coasts