NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Everything looks like it trended a tick colder at the surface than 0z. This matters bc if it’s 26-27 vs 29-30 I’d have to think 925’s would be colder too and we could sleet instead of ice for some of the event. If it is in fact 26-27 with freezing rain, those high end ice totals will be realized
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Looks like it might cut inland. Looks miller B
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Hey, we might come close to equaling our snow total over the last 3 years in ice!
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It’s a major winter storm for NC and southern VA. Major major ice storm here.
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Pretty solid model agreement on an ice storm for us
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Icon drops 1.50” of precip and 99% is modeled as freezing rain for Raleigh. I don’t have freezing rain maps but that would likely be at least 0.75” of ice
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925s are 0 to -1 along and west of US 1 during the peak of the precip on ICON. Folks thats not freezing rain. That’s a sleet bomb
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Yikes is right…
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I worry the 1”+ freezing rain will show up over my house on that run
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Mixing aside, ICON is a HELL of a winter storm for NC
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ICON MUCH colder
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I think the triangle area is at its highest risk of a devastating ice storm since December 2002
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GEFS was much more suppressed/wintry in the Carolina’s, FYI.
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The low level CAA is strong with this one
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It was colder at the surface. Ice all the way to the coast. I’d have to think there was a lot of sleet showing as freezing rain.
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It’s a late bloomer but it’s better than 12z I guess. Definitely more amped along the coast
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GFS looks unchanged at H5. Likely to be warm again
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It’s hard to take it seriously here. It moved the low from cape fear to Mexico beach in one run
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And every year. It is a totally different solution than 12z. Wouldn’t live or die by what it says but having it look more like other models today isn’t a bad thing
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It looked to be phasing as the run ended. Very close. I’m not so sure it wasn’t about to go apeshit in a couple frames
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ICON was a mixed bag for central NC but much better than 12z. Looked like it was getting its act together at the end of the run
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Icon looks like it’s starting a little colder
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A 1” mean with a coastal is insane at day 5
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My .02 is that given model agreement for days now on a significant storm of some type for the area (and likely a high impact one for areas that get below freezing), and we’re only 5 days out, this probably deserves a thread since it’s hijacked any chance of discussion about the upcoming pattern, which honestly looks like we might get another chance before March.
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Monster storm up the coast. This would be a blockbuster storm for the east coast as a whole
