NorthHillsWx

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things.

Cantore was there. Said it was on par with Helene’s surge at his location

Strongest winds were on the north when it made landfall

Co worker in st Petersburg just replied and said there are branches down and a lot of street flooding but at least at his location not too much damage. They held power until well after it made landfall. Sounds like back half was the worst for them. Conditions Improving at his location

Finally getting released from Helene storm work. Thoughts and prayers continue for all those affected by this horrific storm. Lots of good out there too with folks helping one another. Awful situation continues in mountains. Hopefully they aren’t forgotten after Milton

Looks like it’s a go for round 2 of intensification. An interesting thing I’ve noticed on some of the hi res models is the strongest winds appear to transfer to the north and western sides of the system as it approaches Florida (sting jet?). While north of track areas would escape the surge, that’s cat 3+ winds showing on that side of the eye. If it goes slightly south of you, you are by no means safe simply because you avoided what will 100000% be a catastrophic surge on the south side. Heed evacuation orders

We need to save this for posterity. That’s absolutely absurd

False. Plenty go north.

Is there any cool pool left from Helen’s upwelling east of the loop current?

Given the current structure, cat 5 isn’t only on the table, it might be a likelihood at this point. I’m usually conservative but this pinhole has that look

My untrained eye says this is going to run into the Yucatán

There will 100% be an ERC (or 2) before Florida. One thing about that is a larger hurricane will be much more immune to negative environmental factors, like shear and dry air intrusions. That might be the difference in global and hurricane models as it relates to pre landfall weakening

Wow. Now this is rapid strengthening. That can be classified as the dreaded pinhole

Globals don’t really want to weaken this into landfall. O6z GFS and 0z Euro are very similar. Not sold on the degree of weakening some of the hurricane models show. Also not sold on this missing the Yucatán, keeps heading SE

Models were about as spot on with Helene as they can be. There was a slight east correction into landfall so this is true but that was a totally different setup with an interaction with an ULL. Any trends from Helene’s modeling can be discarded as this is a different setup. For the Tampa metro, track will be extraordinarily crucial. This will be another lopsided storm and if it goes just a hair south of the metro, impacts will be minimal vs catastrophic I hope everyone prepares for the catastrophic worst case even if the metro gets lucky. For now, they are solidly in the bullseye

HWRF is worst case surge scenario for Tampa bay

Was thinking the same thing. Also the 90 degree angle of approach will likely bring enhanced surge

It means never rely on the government for anything. That’s not the point of the government. This is all about people helping people, whoever they work for and wherever they came from. Every single major storm i don’t care if it’s democrats or republicans in power, the other side criticizes the government response and while helpful, there are so many other pieces on the private and volunteer side that drive these recoveries more than any government agency especially in the days after.

Government is gonna government. I’m just so impressed with the volunteer response. I’ve had several friends use their vacation time to bring equipment out west and clear roads and rebuild peoples driveways. Volunteers have flown daily missions since the storm passed delivering much needed supplies and evacuating stranded residents. People are literally driving from states away to help. It’s absolutely amazing the volunteer effort going into this storm recovery

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My comment (in the banter thread) was ABSOLUTELY not made to mitigate the worst hurricane in my states history in ANY way. It produced hurricane force gusts to Charleston and Indiana. I’m working in the upstate right now and I am fully aware of the devastation here and elsewhere. I am simply saying, I haven’t seen video or pictures of any high end wind damage on the Florida coast. It’s all surge. I wonder if convection falling apart on NE side of eye as it made landfall lent to max winds not making it to surface at landfall. That’s it. That’s all I’m saying. Steinhatchee was in the band and took terrible surge but I still haven’t see much high end wind damage from even there. As the storm moved inland, those winds meant literally zero, zilch, nada for the winds that occurred inland as the hurricane for wind field was massive. If cat 4 winds only occurred in a 1/2 mile band in a marsh it makes zero impact of the massive size of the storm. It is strange to have SUCH a lopsided cat 4 with areas in the western eyewall not even getting hurricane force gusts and supposedly 140 mph wind on the SE side. Once again, I am not mitigating the storm, this was posted in banter, as it is unusual for a storm of this intensity and size to have so little non surge damage in the impact zones along the coast

Been working storm since Monday afternoon. Been mostly near Chesnee SC. Cell service has gotten markedly better since Monday. Power line damage is unlike anything I have worked inland. Reminds me of Fran in Raleigh. One circuit was over 50% laying on the ground. Progress is being made. Feel for folks up here, they have been nothing but welcoming and have frequently offered to bring food and water for me and our crews.

Josh said *in his opinion* the eyewall of cat 1 Krathon was more severe than the eyewall of cat 4 Helene

35.32”

It was quite the downpour but otherwise no lightning or wind