NorthHillsWx

GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean!

Up to 6.27” storm total after this morning’s rain

It’s pretty rare for any rain event that basically the entire state picked up 3”+ in a day. Outside Asheville west and OBX I think everyone’s had around 3” to way more just today

While we most definitely will crack 6” in my backyard (almost there) it was spread out over 3 days and there was a long lull. If all 6” had fallen today it would’ve been a significantly worse situation, obviously. With a forecast that had totals shown as 10-15” within 18 hours of start time, this wasn’t even close to verifying. I know it’s in in line with earlier forecasts. I think the lack of any substantial banding before today and Debby’s increased motion really helped keep totals down. Obviously an impactful storm and a lot of flooding but most of it was run of the mill flooding. Guess we’ll see how the rivers respond through the week. Looking ahead, this has certainly set the stage for significant flooding should we get another system. With much of the southeast now flooded or waterlogged, another storm could be very bad. Something to watch with an orange in the Atlantic at present

Tornado warned storm near Bunn has a nasty looking hook but velocities are not crazy yet. That’s one to watch though

Pretty significant training of a band going on in Franklin county. Localized higher amounts and flooding likely

Confirmed tornado OTG near Kittrell per NWS. Radar is somewhat unimpressive

Gotta say- at least here this has been very underwhelming.

5.40” here storm total and raining heavily at the moment but looks like a large break upcoming

Tornado OTG near red oak

It definitely spun up overnight when it regenerated convection. The dry air that mixed in when it stalled likely saved South Carolina from the catastrophic flooding it otherwise would’ve been capable of producing. Widespread flooding in NC this morning but nothing major yet at least that I’m aware of. I am becoming concerned for the foothill regions that will get upslope enhancement to possibly exceed 10”. This storm has been a prolific tornado producer, and unfortunately one caused a fatality in Wilson county this morning

I just read that. Very sad. Looks like another possible brief tornado occurred just east of rocky mount. This is becoming a prolific tornado producer in eastern NC. We’re at 4.65” storm total but 1.55” of that came from the first band in 45 minutes. Not much here yesterday but it’s been a lot of rain today with close to 3”

Serious looking debris signature just NE of Louisburg. This one is associated with a very visible hook echo on radar. This probably is a significant tornado

Likely tornado just south of Rocky Mount Edit: Actually 3 strong signatures showing up in that area. Looks like typical brief spin ups but definitely a few short touchdowns

Also wind is starting to get cranked a bit. Noticed outages increasing. With the wet soils 30-40 mph gusts will be capable of more of that through the morning. Lots of 30+ gusts showing up right now. Probably won’t be a ton of outages but definitely something that’s affecting us now

Lots of flash flood warnings and a couple flash flood emergencies this morning. We’re around 4” for the event now. Western piedmont looks locked in for a bad flooding event. Here it may be wherever that tail sets up as Debby pulls north and northeastward. Some areas to the west that get that pivot could exceed 10” (which is what they had forecast here a couple days ago). I think were probably going to end up with 5-6” here which obviously is a significant event but there could be a couple more if that tail sets up overhead

After picking up 1.55” in about 45 min yesterday we have only picked up 0.09” since. 1.64” storm total so far

Nasty tornado with that storm NW of sunset beach based on radar right now

I’ve had more than half that in the first 40 minutes of the storm. I’d toss those island GFS runs, it’s already coming back into alignment with other models at 12z. Picked up 1.55” in 40 minutes from the first band. We’ll see what the meat of this thing brings here

These tropical downpours are a different species of rain. Picked up 0.20” in minutes from a run of the mill looking shower (on radar) EDIT: It’s a whiteout downpour. Working on 1” of rain in our first 30 minutes with Debby

I do agree- Savannah may catch a break here. They are firmly out of the heavy bands and I don’t see this back building over them unless this goes WAY SE. The more northern track probably spared them. Charleston may have a bit of a break after this band passes but there’s no way they don’t keep getting pounded with rain next few days given model consistency there. Being a lot of the city already has 8-14” of rain it seems likely that the 16-20” forecasts there will verify with some areas getting much more. I think the next heavy band that sets up over Charleston could cause the “catastrophic” flooding as the flood situation is already bad there and there’s literally nowhere for the water to go at this point. It’s one band away from reaching that point already.

It seems like this may be becoming a bigger deal for piedmont areas in NC. My rainfall forecast has been increased from 5-8” to 8-12” since yesterday. Coastal areas are much better at handling that volume of rain since it’s flat. However, those are hurricane Fran/Floyd type values for inland areas and that’s on top of a lot of rain last two weeks. This could be a bad situation further inland than was thought yesterday