NorthHillsWx

Usually when these tight core cyclones hit land while being sheared they dissipate quickly or their circulation spreads out and take a while to regenerate if they move back over water. However, the Yucatán is not exactly a hurricane killer. I will say when looking at forecasts from the NHC, the Jamaica-Caymans part was slightly too low for intensity (but consistently called for it to be near MH intensity near Jamaica) but the rest of their forecasts have been pretty spot on. They predicted a cat 1-2 Mexico LF from the start pretty much and looks like that’s what we got. Operationly they’ll keep this a cat 2 LF but I have my suspicions this was significantly weaker. Long story short- great job NHC

Per chasers on the ground in mainland Mexico this doesn’t sound like much of a hit at all. Haven’t seen anything yet approaching cat 2 from video or reports. I wonder if Cozumel took a harder hit while that NW eyewall was still intact, but sounds like this thing really fell apart coming in

Beryl wins. I’m done trying to forecast this storms intensity. It was on the ropes going by the caymans but has clearly reorganized this early afternoon. Unbelievable

Our ACE for the basin is now where it should be on August 27 with an active major hurricane ongoing…

Radar reveals a lack of banding besides the rapidly degrading eyewall. Coupled with pressure rises, I think this thing is unraveling at a quickening pace (finally)

For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning

I’ll say this- I do not think Beryl has THAT much time as a major left. Its satellite presentation has degraded significantly and regardless of impact with Jamaica, its circulation will be disrupted. NHC discussion sounds like it’s on borrowed time at current intensity as is. We have been saying this for 24 hours but now, a marked weakening trend is imminent. This was such a mature and robust circulation with extremely high oceanic heat and instability that it was able to maintain but dry air will eventually slow that down and allow the shear to weaken it. Very resilient storm but it’s starting to show cracks this morning

The only negative if the core misses Jamaica is how does a stronger storm 24 hours from now (due to limited land interaction) affect us down the road. Today will be the most shear the storm experiences. Models had been seeing that + land interaction with Jamaica and interpreting serious weakening. If you marginalize the impact from Jamaica, we will have a stronger base-state storm before the Yucatán. Does this mean a more northerly track possibly extending time over the GOM? Lots to be resolved post-Jamaican impact today but something to take note of

Recon shows a steady state storm. Just wow for July. If this does indeed reintensify in the GOM we’re talking getting into September-like ACE numbers for the basin, from a single storm

Back from the dead? 96L showing some signs of life on satellite and models this morning. It is no doubt bringing some terrible weather to the impact zones from Beryl today. They need none of that

I was about to post this. 96L has been picking up support from models since yesterday. Delayed development but there is a signal

It is going to be a razor thin margin either way for Jamaica. Is there a public radar site there?

That core is still ripping

Welp. Running out of time for Jamaica to avoid a major storm. Only way this isn’t a bad impact is a few more westward jogs.

100%. Anything that wasn’t concrete is gone. That’s one of the heaviest wind damage videos I’ve ever seen

Might be saying goodbye to beryls eye. Feels like saying goodbye to an old friend

Absolute utter devastation. This looks more like tornado damage. Just wow

Union island seems to be ground zero. Hope loss of life is minimal but the picture is what you’d expect from a high end 4 slamming full speed into a tiny island - catastrophic damage

I had grown so used to looking at perfection when viewing satellite of this storm that it’s current 155 mph state looks like trash, lol

3 deaths confirmed from the grenadines so far. Seems like Union island may have taken the worst hit as it never got into the eye. Per the report I read, 90% of the homes were destroyed with every building on the island sustaining damage. Comms are obviously limited and word of mouth can be inaccurate but word getting out is not sounding good so far.

As for surge- the Caribbean is very deep around the islands and so it limits water build up. It’s not like the gulf or Atlantic seaboard north of Florida. High surge is always localized to specific land features such as bays and river mouths and much more localized. While looking at Kingston, it does at face value look surge prone but there are some caveats: 1) the reef outside likely breaks up waves that limit the “driving” surge we get on the gulf coast 2) it would take a storm that brought the right front quad onshore directly over that bay to push water in, as described by the above poster. A side swipe or a storm passing to the south will not cause major water build up 3) though this isn’t a small storm, at least for now its core isn’t crazy large. If it does LF in Jamaica, there will be surge issues, but it will be limited to the right front quad. Due to aforementioned deep water surrounding the island, you won’t get the massive water buildup before the storm arrives you’d otherwise expect While Surge is certainly a serious threat, I don’t think catastrophic will happen due to the above reasons.

My 0.02- I’m going with climo + shear winning out. Beryl hasn’t surprised to this point, maybe a higher peak than what we thought to be possible, but it was apparent days out there would be few mitigating factors. It didn’t explosively strengthen in the face of a poor or questionable environment, it maxed out in a very conducive environment. That environment is running out. It faces high shear from a TUTT. It faces possible trough/dry air interactions. It will have land interaction with Jamaica. I think Jamaica is in trouble bc it is so close and so strong, but beyond that, its current strength has no bearing. I’d lean heavily on a cat 2-3 strike on Jamaica followed by a rapidly weakening storm into the Yucatán. In the gulf, shear could decrease, but there might be dry air issues (normal after a trough passes especially this early). There’s a reason some models essentially evaporate the system. Long story short- while you should never let your guard down with an active system in the gulf, Beryl has more mitigating factors going against it than anything that could help reintensify the system from this point through to the end of its life. Perhaps the synoptic setup changes as we get down the road for the gulf but I’m leaning with climo and what we know right now as for expected environment. NHC is smart to keep this a H moving into Yucatán and I have no issue with their forecast. I just know it will be weakening at that point

Seeing intensity forecasts ranging from cat 4 to 50 knots is crazy

My god. That is all. Speechless.

This is usually how annular canes start but that’s just not possible in the carribean in July, right?