NorthHillsWx

Yea the GFS was quite Interesting for Sunday!!!

Could be a nice surprise for someone. That’s a potent piece of energy flying through.

ICON also very close to something SUN PM especially for triad, SW VA folks on here

I am very much OK with the ICON look at this juncture

Down to 25.2 this morning. Only up to 31.6 as of this typing with a stiff NW wind.

Everyone needs 12z to produce or this place will die

I cannot believe we already got a sun angle post

It need not get forgotten with the RDU crowd that even though the snowless record will not be broken, our 1/2” of slop did not do anything to put a dent in our snow drought. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and now through 2025 we have seen a grand total of one seasonal snow of 3”, everything else has been 2” or less. We are in an extreme snow drought even for our area

After the last 6 winters I need it bad

Was typing something similar. This is one of the ways we lose I posted yesterday. The energy gets hung up in the SW and we end up with what the GFS just showed. That would be epic pain

Not often you see a 1041 parked over central NC

06z GFS pushes our system into the Yucatán

It is a total end to end ice storm

Place is dead

Sunday night might be interesting

These are the best ensembles we may have ever seen at this range. Unbelievable trends today on that front.

For my money I bet central/northern VA get this storm. It just wants to snow there this year

There is but I’m just saying, we have seen these cold pushes over modeled time and time again this storm is going to ride that edge and I am becoming more and more concerned it’s inland. Honestly the suppressed runs yesterday gave me hope

Ouch

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before

What’d I miss at 12z??? Place seems active

One thing I am very concerned with this storm is there is nothing to keep it from going NW. There is no blocking. If the energy gets hung up out west or the cold push is over modeled we will see significant NW movement as we approach that timeframe. This is where this system differs greatly from the last one where NW movement was always limited. We really are dependent here on that MW high both in strength and location. I know the upside is there but this scares me as it could be a massive rain storm and that is a very valid possibility. Hate to say this but this is definitely a thread the needle situation reliant upon the pre storm cold push and HP for storm track. Do not think a rainstorm is off the table this go round

27.7 this morning. 20s are the norm this winter

Amen

To reel the forum back in, let’s look at where we stand on the Brick storm: 1) there is an incredible storm signal for the 21-23rd timeframe 2) ensemble support is HIGHER than it was at this range with our last system (this is when it started to fade) 3) H5 setup looks much better than the last system and cold air might be fresher 4) Pretty much every run cycle is showing a major winter storm on one of the ops. In my experience this only occurs with the big storms. I’m not saying a big storm is coming, I’m saying models are showing us there is support for a large storm and the pieces of energy to get one are there. Major storms don’t hide their origins. This one has higher end potential and models are showing us just that 5) No can kicking. This timeframe has been steady. We’re into the 1 week out phase. This is important bc we are not talking fantasy land anymore, like when Brick made potentially the call of the millennium