NorthHillsWx

Ida is intensifying at an incredible rate going into landfall

Would not shock me to find a hurricane on this next pass. Ida has clearly continued to intensify and with the small core I would not be surprised to find hurricane force winds

As if we needed another level of concern, Ida has continued to lean towards the eastern side of the track envelope. Recon has confirmed this again with their center fixes. These slight eastward adjustments are increasing the risk of New Orleans getting the direct impact of the right front eyewall, and more importantly the mouth of the Mississippi. A strong southerly to southeasterly fetch (potentially from a cat 4+) hurricane would be devastating if the eyewall takes that track. Once again, I am not trying to engage in hyperbole, but this is a growing possibility with a storm of this magnitude and that is track trajectory. Hopefully it corrects westward under the ridge once in the gulf

Yes but that doesn’t always mean a vertically aligned (stacked) circulation and established core. It’s going over a “easy” spot of Cuba for storms to maintain intensity without much disruption and will not need to reorganize or form a core once in the Gulf in a highly divergent and light shear environment. Also, it’s track literally follows the loop current. This is going to be a monster hurricane, I am incredibly confident. As someone stated earlier, it’s rare on this forum or in any tropical weather discussion to have to look for reasons the storm will not strengthen rapidly. Models have been locked in unanimously for days and what we’re seeing this morning was the one thing I believed could slow it down: lack of an inner core before it could fully take advantage of its environment. Also- the outflow from the pacific system which was a possible detriment to intensification has been nullified by the more northern and eastern track. If this was going into Texas it would likely hand encountered some shear from that, or at least some outflow restriction, but it’s a non factor on the current track. I usually refrain from hyperbole on this site, but this has the hallmarks of another historic Gulf hurricane in the making.

This thing may be going through RI before Cuba… I’m siding with the higher intensity guidance on this storm given the structure at present. This is ahead of modeling

Now explicitly forecast to become a major before landfall: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

06z GFS takes this much further East into Cuba as a hurricane

Even for josh, that sounds terrifying. Glad he’s ok!

FL winds indicated hurricane even though SFMR observations were quite low. They averaged the two. I have to agree though, I seriously doubt this is producing surface winds even near hurricane force with the lack of convection. This will be a 45-50 kt storm at landfall. It’s over water as warm as it will get and does not have time to organize a core. There is no jet stream energy to tap into (like some higher latitude systems like Isaias) so this will be a decaying TS at landfall

Any word from Josh post-landfall? Last I saw from him he was driving through the eyewall of a rapidly intensifying borderline cat 4 on the coast at night. Hope all is well!

First major of the season. Been a wild day for grace

When did grace decide to get all sexy-like!?

Laura

If this had spent another 12 hours over water this morning it would’ve been a serious storm. Took really until the 11th hour to get its core put together

Josh measured 978 in eye, considerably lower than NHC estimate at landfall

I’ll be the first to say it: on visible, and not just in one frame, it looks like Henri may be starting to clear out an eye

Grace *still* lacks a coherent and robust core. Very fickle looking at the moment. Those westerlies on the south side of the circulation leave much to be desired.

Grace looks a little “popcorn-like” at the moment. Evidence of some of that mid level dry air.

Agreed. I’d think this warrants an upgrade, especially with increasing organization at this time. Not sure if NHC will bite or wait for next flight to confirm. This by all means is on the cusp

0.09” overnight and this morning for a mtd total of 3.82”. Currently overcast and a humid 76.6 out

Surprised no one is talking about the tornado outbreak going on. Multiple confirmed tornadoes including two PDS warnings, one of which is ongoing west of Columbia

Oh how I wish we had recon in Henri atm…

Land interactions have certainly not been kind to Grace. But things can change pretty fast if a core does get established. Obviously the thermodynamic potential is out the roof tomorrow if it can get going. Yep. Guidance is quite split on this one too, especially before it gets to the Yucatán. About half the guidance forecasts a slow strengthening pattern to continue, I’m assuming due to lack of a cohesive core, while the other half makes grace a hurricane at a more rapid pace. Really tough forecast, I think NHC is playing it correctly forecasting grace to be on the cusp of hurricane strength at landfall. If the system had a more well defined core this would be a strengthening hurricane. Relatively low shear, extremely moist envelop, and due to the thermodynamic potential and what we’ve already seen, grace has not lacked intense convection through its journey in the Caribbean

Yep. I believe we have a hurricane incoming

Grace has struggled mightily at organizing a coherent core it’s entire life. Even this recon mission shows the center of circulation is weak and embedded in what by all accounts looks like a wave envelope. Would not shock me to see several center reformations as it interacts with Jamaica. Until that happens, the very gradual strengthening we’ve seen last 24hrs would be all I’d forecast heading into the Yucatán. Strange system, overall environment would usually indicate a stronger system than what we’re seeing.