NorthHillsWx

I get stuck on Raleigh’s climo a lot, but look towards the foothills, the triad, the roxboro snow globe. Even in our (triangle) fail years, those areas seemed to always make out ok. Looking at individual climate sites for snow can be a bit misleading as our snow storms frequently have giant variations across the state, but seeing all these areas blanked and struggling this much is humbling

Right. I don’t even think we’re in a rut, I think it’s just how it is in today’s climate. Last 5 years we’re averaging a hair over 1” of snow per season and I’ve seen my street covered once since December 2018. Teleconnections and analogs don’t mean anything anymore. We’re setting new precedents of failure every year. I know we haven’t seen the last good snowstorm in this area, but expecting a decent event every year used to be the norm. Now we’re more like hoping for our streets to be covered once every 5 years and a warning level snow every 10

I still stand by this. I get the pattern is right, but where is the cold?

I feel like we now have Columbia’s climo here in central NC.

The storm taking a perfect track for Virginia/MA on the 13th and being nothing but rain is also a terrible sign

Jack Campbell there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. Thats why it's so warm north of the storm track. Michael Berger no signs of that at all, all the cold air in on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range. When you see crazy maps with departure from average temperatures for late February, you must remember what average is. 10-15° below average in the Feb 15-25 timeframe still puts us in the 40s. It's not cold enough for winter weather. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc Quotes from Brad P on his post

His Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/swyyDz4sp3ZLEgJm/?mibextid=WC7FNe

Brad P ain’t having it, at all. Saying this period, and thus this winter, has no chance

Anddddd…. it’s gone. Killed by the GLL it previously had digging into Arkansas behind it

I do miss the days before we knew we had no chance a month out. Always was fun watching TWC classic local forecasts waiting to see snowflakes on the weekly graphic

I’ve been hoping my negativity would will it into existence. That 1055 high on the 0z GFS would definitely work, lol. 1037 from 6z is weak sauce

The winter thread is too much fun. A few still holding onto analogs and 492 hour weeklies for hope, then illogical and nonsensical spewing from everyone at the bottom of the cliff. Good times

In layman’s terms: it’s gonna rain

Even our fantasy storms suck

Honestly the stages of winter grief chart has been the most accurate thing posted on the forum this year

Everyone threw in the towel after that January bust

This board needs a snowstorm like a fish needs water. Honestly all the east coast boards are just as bad if not worse.

Marvelous March > Fabulous February

I have full faith march will save this winter

Love some 80’s without humidity

Not liking the 18z cold push into the Mississippi valley. That hasn’t worked here

My point wasn’t that this isn’t a good climo period for snow, it was that you need anomalous cold to snow late in February. All those years with big storms you mention brought that at the right time. It seems we get closer and it keeps warming up soon as we get inside 15 days. Maybe I’m wrong but until we get a sustained cold signal in New England with this pattern, it will just result in cold rain south of the mid Atlantic

Yep they’re up here too

The split flow looks great, blocking looks great, but you know what’s still the problem we’re going to have? There’s no real cold air. Even that fantasy storm last night was a product of rates and not there being a good arctic high in the source region. Until proven otherwise, it looks to me like a mid Atlantic setup where there might be just enough cold air north of us. We might get some storms but I’m doubtful the cold will be enough. We’re reaching the part of our climo where we need anomalous cold for frozen and that isn’t showing up

Worst winters in my lifetime: 1) Winter 2023-4 2) Winter 2022-3 3) Winter 2020-1 Notice a trend???