NorthHillsWx

Low of 28.1 this morning

I feel like NC and most of the Atlantic seaboard has gotten exceptionally lucky since Florence. I have a gut feeling that changes this year. Everything screams an exceptionally bad season for the basin

Not terrible. Last year we had leaves out before March

It doesn’t seem to be that far ahead here compared to normal. That being said, the last few Februarys have been so warm that maybe it’s skewing what normal is… Blooms on most flowering trees but nothing popped yet

Watching that slug of moisture going from the gulf out into the Atlantic is extremely frustrating. I’ll call the opaque sky and 30’s a win this year, closest thing to snow we’ve had this year smdh

The 23-24 may be worth watching. EURO isn’t that far off. Need the low in MW to dig more but I’ve seen this evolution work out before.

One other symptom I believe we’re seeing of a warm Atlantic has played out in the MA and NE over the last week. They got a perfect track coastal storm and, other than a few bands where rates overcame BL temps, most areas struggled to accumulate. Boston was mostly rain from a storm traveling south of the 40/70 benchmark in mid February! You cannot tell me that the sst anomaly along the east coast wasn’t at least partly to blame for the outcome of that system in areas where the flow came off the water. Now for the flip side- this clipper that just went through. Without any coastal influences and no coastal flow, it was able to produce a stripe of snow from 8-14” from the Midwest to the coast. In fact, even areas outside the band were able to accumulate efficiently. I know the DC area got screwed but that was mostly due to the storm track and lack of precip in that area. My point is this: both of those were borderline BL temp setups and one was far more efficient at producing snow than the other. Down here, EVERY event just about is borderline, and given the same setup as they experienced, that 2-3 degree coastal influence due to excessively warm sst can be the difference between what, given normal sst, would be a winter storm vs a rainstorm. Just pretty wild to see in many regards a clipper outperform a juiced up coastal in prime climo in NE

The coast/being something interesting. Grasping at straws

For what it’s worth, 18z GFS inched closer again

CPCs march-may outlook says above average temps and precip. Sounds like a early spring

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC

Jan 2000 will never be topped in central NC. From the blown forecast of almost no snow when we went to bed to waking up to nearly 2 ft, plus just the ridiculous rates that continued into daylight. There were several storms that year too. That’s what made me a weenie, that and hurricane Fran 4 years earlier. The top two weather events of my life in a 4 year span. The Christmas snow is on up there, as is the near foot of snow we got in 2002. The 2002 snow was memorable as I was at a hurricane’s game when it started and I remember Greg Fischel coming on the Jumbotron doing a weather update saying snow had arrived earlier and forecast amounts had increased. We left after the game and walked out to a winter wonderland, whereas it was bare outside when we went in.

I think someone pulled two other instances of it earlier but we’re getting very close to our record. Also, I bet those other blankings featured some sort of ice or storms nearby. It’s the complete lack of ANYTHING remotely close that blows me away. Not even Greensboro or Roxboro has had snow in this period. From that perspective, this feels unprecedented. I mean 2 years in a row and not a single system inside 5 days to track, it feels about as close to snowing here as it’s been in Tampa Florida during this time

@GaWxis out for the season. That’s the equivalent of the fat lady singing loud enough for all to hear

I know, I missed the 2003 storm and “snowmaggedon” both by a year! That sleet storm was one of the wildest winter storms I’ve ever seen though. I think it was 6-7” of pure sleet and turned into a glacier that stuck around through March There was another storm, can’t remember the year, but we were supposed to get rain, then they issued an advisory for 1-3” but it was still supposed to switch to rain early, then the day of it just kept snowing aggregates and they upped us to a warning after we had probably 6” otg. Idk what the final tally was but it was super exciting and unexpected

I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm.

Weeds have sprung.

Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now

Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again

The fact we had the numbers we had last year in spite of an Nino was impressive. I wouldn’t say it acted like a Nina, shear was in places you’d expect towards the end of the season in a Nino and storm tracks were very Nino like

It cannot be understated how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of the Atlantic and La Niña forecast to come back.

In the last 6 years I think one cold period was accurately modeled at range, last years Christmas cold outbreak.

When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV

Maybe one day my kids will see it snow in Raleigh. It’s about like asking it to snow in Jacksonville Florida now

It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need!