NorthHillsWx

You made that call early too...

There is some potential showing. Euro/GFS/CMC Op runs all have some interesting storms depicted. Lets see if we can trend colder, shouldn't have much trouble with that!

The models are programmed to reset expectations inside the 10 day window

I'm in the same boat. My fiancé and I had to buy wet paw wipes. Our mudroom is living up to its name! At least the ground has been frozen for a few days so there's been some relief

It's completely a guess but I feel the same way. At least they are showing several coastal storms or late bloomers in the Mid Atlantic. Cold is an issue (haven't heard that before). We still have a lot of winter to go but man, I haven't seen many runs in the last couple weeks even in fantasy land advertising a single flake for Raleigh. Hard to keep hope alive while burning through 2 months of prime climo relying entirely on a month that has let us down so frequently...

I love how some of the talk in the Foothills/Mountains thread was mocking the doom and gloom from the main thread when they were just able to squeeze out a couple inches of snow on what was forecast to be a dry day! If that ever happened outside the mountains, I would never bicker again. Haven't seen a flake this winter!

Yea, 2/1 snow ratios for someone in the mountains too...

Good look for cold air and eastern trough... at the end of the GFS Op run. Maybe something will give going into February. Chasing 10+ day cold patterns has grown old...

Might actually turn the heat on again today. That's a win this "winter," right?

Well, we've hit what's becoming the yearly rallying cry: February will save us! Prime climo be damned

These 2 posts back to back just cracked me up... Ahh, life in the Southeast

Will probably be more active than this winter's thread the next couple months...

Warmer than average, wetter than average, below normal or no snow. 2019-20 might go down as my first winter period without seeing any snow. Cliff? Oh I'm off the cliff. I'm swimming with the sharks below

Haven't thrown in the towel yet but darn close to. Chasing storms 10+ days out only to have them turn to rain storms (and not even borderline ones) has taken the wind out of my sails with this "Pattern Change." I will, however, enjoy some winter-like days next week before we warm up and rain again

yay?

The rain on Saturday looks to have pushed back to Saturday night. Also went from over and inch on the GFS a couple days ago to nothing today. NWS sounded somewhat bullish on a large area of rain in this morning AFD. Will be interesting to see if they change course at this afternoon's update. Might actually get a dry weekend!

Back to bleak mood on here... Cold air coming and storm systems riding the southern stream. I'd be concerned if models WERE showing snow, the kiss of death in these parts. We have the #1 ingredient coming: cold air, at least seasonable or below. I'll take our chances with a storm in the next 10 days.

Agreed. Don't think the magnitude of cold has changed, just turned to suppression city...

12z GFS brings a brief period of light sleet/snow to northern parts of central NC Saturday Morning. Obviously not acc but would be refreshing after the Hellish weather we've been stuck in

Use statements like these with caution in these parts...

With the odds and Vegas stacked against us, we will find a way to prevail and score a "Big Dog," just like when TL16 outduels Burrow tonight. This heatwave in Dec-January is akin to Clemson's escape vs UNC: looked like the sky was falling and the season was lost, but in the end, all it takes is one key play or pattern change, and you come out on top. Just like 44-16!

Flip to a colder pattern continues to be well-advertised. As many have said, especially more than a week out, I would not focus on storm track. Just the presence of cold air and some southern stream energy means the players have left the locker room after a long weather delay (or more than 2 week gap between the semi's and the Championship) and are on the field. Now it's time to play ball. Hopefully we come out on top, like we ALL hope Clemson wins it's 3rd title in 4 years, except in this case the Title victory is something that whitens the ground and changes the mood on this board for the remainder of the season. Spot the ball!

Love chasing 10 day cooldowns on the models, knowing we are 100% going to burn 10 more days of peak climo to get there, while also knowing that it will not be as cold as modeled AND the cold will definitely be delayed is a wonderful feeling! IF everything works out as modeled, we will have to burn 10 more days of peak Climo after burning the last month plus... Love winter in the South!

Euro does not have the cold. At all lol.

One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out