NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Pretty awesome hurricane footage
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430k outages in NC right now
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Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there
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Would be the shortest thread of a major US landfall in AmericanWx.com history
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No chance at cat 3. I’m only saying I do not think this is going to weaken. It’s still (slowly) deepening and sat presentation has improved since this morning. It only has maybe 6 hours until the eyewall is onshore
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The problem with this graphic is that the first forecast point, 12 hours, the storm is already inland
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This is not the same look delta had coming in. This is a well formed strengthening storm. Conditions won’t permit it to go crazy but this is still strengthening and has just about run out of time for any weakening to take place
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On another note, the eye is now becoming visible on the long range LIX radar.
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I think it, presentation wise, looks the best as it has yet. The deep convection is more consistent, it had that popcorn look when the eye feature was more pronounced, and it is popping an eye on visible as we speak. Recent trends and forward motion, I don’t see this weakening. I think cat 2, 85 kt landfall
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NHC now going with 100mph near landfall
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Me thinks intensity guidance is gonna bust low low after what I’m looking at tonight on satellite
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Agreed. If this convective flare up persists, it seems it will, those pressures will come down quick. That’s a large amount of heat being expelled into the atmosphere
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Pretty amazing we’re looking at our 6th US hurricane landfall this season. I know they haven’t all been blockbusters but Laura, delta, Isaias, sally, and now probably zeta would be bonafide headliners by themselves in any season on this forum. We’re spoiled
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New, stronger convection is beginning to fire near and around the center. The next 8-10 hours should give us a good idea where the intensity bar is set, though I still think there are enough positive factors going for this to be a stronger system than what these show. I like 70-80kts
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Zeta has developed an extremely impressive outflow pattern since last night. However, convection is struggling mightily near the core and a large moat has developed between the central convection and a cyclonically curved outer band. I believe we’ll see the outer band structure decay over the next 12 hours and an increase in convection over the center as that occurs. SST are sufficient and with the outflow pattern, I do expect strengthening to occur. However, the system took more of a hit over land than it seemed while over land. This spread out structure will take much longer to coalesce and see a quick uptick in intensity. I predict a slowly organizing system to peak and then stay at similar intensity through landfall. Probably on the order of 70-80kts. If this had a better structure I would be concerned of a stronger system but it will take considerable time to reorganize in its current state
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Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana
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It would not surprise me at all if sally was upgraded due to the large amount of damage to use as evidence. Plenty to judge max wind speeds with.
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Gotta hand it to the GFS if this system develops in the western Caribbean, it’s been showing it in long range, now medium range for endless runs now
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2020 is determined to paint every mile of coast from brownsville to Massachusetts in some sort of tropical watch/warning
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I was about to say... that’s one of the most Wilma-like runs we’ve had since... Wilma. Think the moral of the story is there is an increasing signal for development in the place you’d expect it this time of year. I didn’t think 2020 would let the season end without a bang! Ensembles have been holding onto the idea of development in the W Caribbean for a few days now so seeing it show on the ops for several runs is not unexpected. I don’t think we’re done yet...
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I’d say you’ve been consistent in pointing out the gradual organizational trend of the storm today. Your posts have been bookended multiple times in the exact opposite observation by someone else thinking the storm is weakening after strengthening for 3 frames. Haha. Point is- we’re seeing a gradually strengthening system. Pressure falls and winds gradually responding. I think NHC forecast is on point though I can also see the storm failing to attain major again but barely. Large Ike-like storm at landfall so exact intensity is not that important anyways, other than for us weenies.
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Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart lol
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Got a friend who just got to Cancun yesterday for his honeymoon. Why he went, I have no clue. He is reporting they have evacuated his entire resort inland.
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This is going to be an awesome pass
