Fred’s circulation is actually much better defined today in visible and as noted in the 11am discussion, recon found as much. Funny how misleading the convection yesterday was. I’d say Fred is considerably better defined at this point with minimal convection than at any point yesterday. What does it mean? Not much, that center is going to be shredded. Guidance moving further and further west has large implications as well. It keeps the majority of the system inland over Haiti and Cuba. This all favors a significantly weaker scenario. If the system had crossed the Dominican Republic, or even Puerto Rico as some modeling signaled yesterday, it would have had a much better chance to strengthen with the extended period of time over the Atlantic. Now the question becomes 1) can the system survive enough to have a chance to strengthen in a couple days 2) does it go far enough west into the Gulf to be able to take advantage of bathtub water or does it ride the Florida peninsula and struggle further with land interaction? All this and the environment ahead of Fred is extremely marginal.