NorthHillsWx

My 30% chance of rain is turning into a downpour this morning. Might break an inch 1.5” and pouring. What a bust today by models!!

This storm must be drawing from upper level jet energy bc holy moly it went “poof” on satellite

I remember when every gulf system weakened into landfall and the conversations on here were the opposite… Pretty crazy run of last second intensifying storms. This might have been a product of perfect timing with a convective burst more so than large scale influences but definitely getting hairy videos all over social media now. This one will verify cat 2 on land

This definitely looks cat 2 https://x.com/davis_wx/status/1833988239671062551?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

It looks like the storm is making a jog east as it interacts with land. Might bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans

Eyewall is moving onshore in the marshes now. Nothing crazy from chasers yet but I’d expect hurricane conditions within next 45 min for those near the coast

Keep in mind these oil rig observations are taken in some cases a couple hundred feet above the water. These will be substantially higher than what is observed on land. I can see some mixing down in gusts in the strongest convection

Looks like this is going to be ashore ahead of schedule

Definitely a potent eyewall, what one would expect for a mid-upper tier cat 1. Of all the land-impacting storms of recent- this one has followed the script almost perfectly with very few forecast surprises both from track or intensity. Kind of refreshing to have an “easy” forecast for once

93L looks like it’s going to develop. It has the look. Lots of rotation evident as soon as it came off the African coast and it’s currently maintaining deep convection. Im intrigued but the tropical-ish thing forecast to spin up off the southeast coast along the boundary. While this likely won’t get very strong and might not be purely tropical, trough axis could cause this to be a prolific rain maker in the Carolina’s. Might be more of a nor Easter but definitely has consistent model support

Recon doesn’t support 80 kts. Might be leveling off. From here, oceanic heat decreases while shear increases. As someone noted, these jet enhanced storms tend to have a strong SE quadrant as it’s in line with the enhancement, very evident here

Looks like a mid tier cat 1 LF to me. Sticking with 80-90 mph peak and don’t see anything to suggest this is going to exceed that

I definitely think the biggest question marks with this storm are with track rather than intensity. Intensity forecast seems straightforward for once and honestly splitting hairs between 75-85 kts isn’t going to impact the outcome much. What was just said above about whether it’s peaking at LF vs weakening could be more impactful as that will to an extent drive the impacts. The eastward shifts certainly bear watching as to could take the right front quad over New Orleans. The good news about the approach west of the Mississippi is it won’t have much time to build up a surge for the metro area, though wind impacts will certainly be heightened

Super low pressure for a 55 kt storm

Outside of the “weird” apparent eyewall development yesterday, this storm has panned out almost exactly as expected. It’s taken a while for the broad circulation to tighten and that appears to be happening this morning. I’d expect steady strengthening until the shear increases towards landfall, with weakening whenever that occurs. A turn to the NE may limit the shear due to a more conducive vector but seeing up to 30 kts of shear, with dry continental air, screams a half a cane landfall. I’m still sticking to my 80-90 mph max and landfall likely near that

That’s a ready for liftoff look

So any debate about center is squashed. This thing looks good in a hurry

As we saw with Laura- though a lot of the coast there is susceptible to surge, most of that area isn’t built up besides small towns and hunting and fishing camps. Definitely a “good” spot to avoid a ton of human property loss. FYI I’ve fished in vermillion bay and outside of one point that is developed, there aren’t many structures period around the entire bay. Very cool spot and an awesome state park

Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center.

Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre

For what it’s worth at range banding features appear to be increasingly evident on Brownsville radar

This is an absolutely insane look for early September but ventilation to the NE won’t be a problem lol

Convectively this system is impressive. Instability and moisture are not inhibiting factors for development today

These jet-enhanced storms are usually reserved for later in the season, especially in the GOM. But goes to show the anomalously strong trough over the east coast. Freeze warnings in Virginia tonight! As for the storm itself, I could see one of two outcomes. A strong half-a-cane due to positive trough interaction or a sheared storm that never gets its act together. Don’t think this one’s going to be eye candy regardless of final intensity. Really reminds me of Nicholas from a couple years ago. Another interesting thing is how quickly models turn this thing into a sprawling post-tropical system after landfall. It’s possible this storm could have some non-tropical features as it approaches the coast and interacts with said trough. Really going to be an interesting evolution and I think it’s going to be very much up in the air 24 hours from now. My gut tells me this maxes out 80-90 mph and we see our third gulf storm landfall of the exact same intensity this season. One thing to watch as this organizes is whether or not it can develop a small core or if it stays broad. Broad in this case where jet interactions will ultimately dictate final intensity will surely mean this struggles to reach H Intensity. A tight core will have a much better shot, despite the shear likely to inhibit it’s appearance

GFS is screaming a hurricane Nicholas redux with the BOC wave/trough interaction