NorthHillsWx

Some of the wildest last minute jumps you’ll ever see from models. I almost feel bad for them… almost…

That is absurd.

Also- to see how poorly this thing was modeled, look at rainfall forecasts for here today. What looked locked in as an all-day washout has resulted in virtually no rain at all thus far. This thing went WAY south

It’s been full blown meltdown mode on the NE page. I can’t even imagine losing a foot + inside 24 hours and come away with nothing. This page wouldn’t react well

Yes and no. Northern areas should still be cold enough for snow and long lasting snow. Last year the upper NW and dakotas set records. This year it’s been anemic there bc it’s been so dry. The lack of New England snow to me is more pattern related than it simply being too warm. Check the cold outbreak west of the mountains this year. That was able to maintain itself in the Deep South despite little to no snow cover in the upper MW. Now there are times where we 100% benefit from existing snowpack to our north, say down to Pennsylvania, especially for borderline in-situ damming events. But I don’t think the recent lack of source region (NE away from coastline and Canada) snowpack is totally influenced by climate change

Imo the euro develops the wrong wave. I like the trailing energy I spoke about above. Pretty big differences in timing and wave progression but good to see some coldish air involved again

If anyone’s in need for some entertainment today, head to the New England forum. They have had warnings posted for up to 12-18” since yesterday and the latest EURO completely blanks a lot of those areas. Total meltdown mode up there

Yep. Only chance is for something with perfect timing. I like the Canadians evolution with the lobe of energy left behind and a separate cleaner wave trailing a little behind what the GFS shows. That’s the only way we win bc the “cold” will be transient and a delayed system will have more chance to interact with that very brief window. Two things to watch for the 19-20th time period: 1) can the southern stream energy consolidate quicker and possibly become more amped/further north 2) can the souther stream energy hold back after the initial wave moves through on roughly the 18th. We need that NS low to pass on by for a transient HP to build into NE or it rains. Good news from both runs of GFS and Canadian shows a stronger hp with colder/drier air in our source region. I actually don’t hate the placement of the high on either. If we notice a sharper trough trailing back in Texas in subsequent runs, I think the odds of something interesting to track will increase, assuming the timing noted above stays the same. This is a very very low chance of success but there are players we need on the field (cold (just enough), southern stream energy) so we cannot completely discredit it at this time I am trying to stay positive people, the last few days have really been frustrating but I do enjoy tracking weather and to many on this forums credit, there is at least something to track in the timeframe we have been watching

Canadian is very very close on the 20th

Add to that- with the NS low moving out sooner, it actually shows a 1031 HP in a favorable location with CAD signature showing. This isn’t a terrible look at range

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Probably won’t matter much but GFS is much more consolidated with the southern stream energy over Texas this run

While I agree, that period around last Christmas qualifies as a true pattern change. We just got unlucky there, but a week mostly below freezing is impressive for anywhere in the Carolina’s. This season didn’t feature anything I would consider to be a pattern change. The “cold blast” in January was essentially a frontal passage that flipped right back to AN, there was transient cold nothing locked in. You bring up a good point though: what is a pattern change? What are the minimum qualifications to say the pattern has changed or would you consider this January just a cold snap within the same pattern we were stuck in? I lean the latter. For me, a pattern change needs these qualifications: 1) altered H5 orientation across country 2) retention or addition of SER 3) either strengthening or weakening of STJ and/or NS You can throw in blocking, the state of the PAC, MJO, or many other indices but imo those 3 variables dictate sensible weather here and must all be altered to constitute a pattern “change” vs a blip within a set pattern. I don’t know if you can throw a time qualifier in there as well, such as H5 state must last at least 72 hours or something along those lines, but I could hear that argument as well

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight

Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month

Per 0z GFS, we reach freezing exactly 1 night through the entire run during this backloaded Nino February. Then we are firmly into spring

We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things: 1) SER becomes semi-permanent 2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels

I think the biggest issue is a simple one, we haven’t been able to lock in a favorable HP at all. The NS keeps obliterating every strong high that tries to establish itself regardless of blocking. Believe it or not, we don’t need pure arctic air to snow or get wintry wx east of the mountains. CAD has become a thing of the past, and those storms are our most frequent. Yes we are all searching for the miller A unicorn without thermal issues, but the vast majority of our wintry weather historically has come from miller B mixed bags and overrunning events. Pure Arctic air looks good on paper and long range models but it usually leads to suppression or transient cold shots without a New England high established

Wish there was a “love” button on the reactions. Finally enough light to do something after work. Currently 61 and actually pretty nice out. About a quarter inch of rain in the bucket from earlier

Glad everyone got outside yesterday

It’s another early spring across the triangle. Todays mid 70’s with the rain over next couple days will throw it into overdrive

We shot up to 77.2 which is our warmest temp to date for the year

That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members