NorthHillsWx

I fear we mix bad. Think those uber suppressed/cold looks were fools gold for thermals. We’ll see what globals show but hi res is concerning

FV3 has 0.4-0.5” QPF across most of central nc and the storm is only about half over at end of the run

You’re in that spot where you can smell the mix but have heavy snow. Gotta ride the line to max out!!!

FV3 looks like a major winter storm for most of NC and southern VA

Maybe the NAM is a sign the bleeding has stopped, or maybe it’s the HR 60 NAM. But that was not a bad run for a lot of the forum.

So NAM came back more amped and wetter east of I-77

Its much better precip wise than its last couple runs and goes sub 1000 mb just east of hatteras. Historically that’s a great spot for NC. Only problem and this is something we (RDU) knew but thermals suck and it’s almost all sleet in Raleigh. Better run I-85 NE

NAM gets its act together

That’s a very good GIF. I guess I haven’t been following the AI much but my take was when it jumped to more of a tucked look north of hatteras in alignment with EURO at the time. It truly hasn’t been gung ho with inland precip at any point though to y’all’s point. I’ll rescind my comments as that’s as consistent as any model for this storm. I guess a blind squirrel found a nut

Was wondering when he’d cave. Actually shocked it was this early when he dug in yesterday lol

We’re in the range where you cannot discredit the NAM completely. Other short range guidance can start to be used more critically

I’m not sure I agree with this. It’s has had several jumps of 300+ miles and actually corrected to the Euro at one point. It did start east and overall has stayed east and colder but it has been pretty jumpy in last 24 hours.

Absolutely epic model fail north of NC. To the point there aren’t terribly many examples of similar fails in that timeframe with a predicted major storm. WPC is usually conservative and even they honked the horn early based on the amazing model consensus we had. But weather is gonna weather, it’s why we’re here. If the 96 hour EURO was right everytime this wouldn’t be as fun. Eventually we’ll get one that tends positively for the forum. With all the negativity, central and eastern NC are still looking at a significant snow. It could die later but for now this is far from dead

Fixed it for you

I mean normally if this forum saw that map less than 48 hours from start time this place would be hopping with positivity

If it was me and it looks like we get 2-4” in Raleigh I’d stay put. Not sure I’d miss that given how rare snow has become here to chase 6-8” somewhere else. If those totals beef up to double digits NE of here, maybe I’d chase regardless what Raleigh got

Reminds me of Jan 2022. Completely lost the storm to the east then 24 hours out models caught on to interaction with trailing ULL and resulted in snow across the state with coastal enhancement further east

I agree for central/eastern NC but if it’s just the coastal and no WAA I really don’t think areas west of there have much chance of anything beyond nuisance snows or mood flakes. This could still be a big event and to your point it could just be honing in on the sweet spot but to me the boom scenarios have come way down and the bust, even in central NC, is literally no QPF. Maybe I’m wrong

I mean this is the 3rd storm this year that’s done the exact same thing. What a way to waste a -5 AO and +PNA for the east coast. Still holding out hope for central/eastern NC but foothills, upstate and western VA are beyond life support

DTs snow map is actually comical. He’s got areas in 6-12” range that legitimately won’t see accumulation

Honestly at this rate that might be our fate. Western cutoff is going to be brutal. It’s not like the southern/weaker trends are done. If anything, they’re picking up steam. NYC was here two days ago, the MA fell yesterday. Richmond went down this morning. We’re holding the line but that’s not where you want to be given everything I’ve seen. EURO has cut 1” of QPF here since yesterday morning. If current modeling was accurate I’d go 2-4” for Raleigh with a jack of 6-8” near Elizabeth city. But given the trends, that 2-4” could fall to TR by the end of the day and I almost expect it to

RDU needs 3.8” to hit climo, btw

I’m still optimistic for RDU to have a moderate snowfall and like you, I’ll sacrifice QPF if it’s snow and not ZR. But we’re solidly on the western edge now. Normally I’d say this is a good spot to be, but with our low trending weaker and not just south, we are now at real risk of missing everything. 06z GFS actually showed some positives and some of the hi res models show the coastal taking over and snow building over top of us but pretty much everyone has lost the WAA snow and that transfer to the coastal is going to leave a lot of folks dry. We are not out of it by any means and as is with this id go with 2-4” based on current modeling but the boom potential is rapidly waning and it’s looking much more likely the floor is mood flakes

It’s got Twitter Mets thoroughly flummoxed. Everyone bit on this one with EPS absence rock solid for nearly a week. You get to day 4 and with the EPS locked in the way it was, you expect at least there will be a big storm somewhere

I think as some have said on here that models just do not do well when the NS is as dominant as it has been this year. Every single storm has trended weaker up until go time. Even the late Jan system that produced the light snow, the NW trend wasn’t from a strengthening trend, models just caught onto the mid level moisture during the last 24 hours. Now this one is an exceptional fail because every model suite missed it. Not just EPS. It’s rare to get the day 4-5 agreement we had with this storm. I mean it was run after run consistency. I try not to get pulled into long range modeling but certainly when every ensemble group is painting the same picture inside day 6 you have to take note. This will be one that we need to remember in the future about how to fail in the mid range.