It really may never snow appreciably in Raleigh again. I just don’t know what it will take. Striking out last weekend hurt but was tolerable bc we had the rug pulled out on like day 4-5 but to have the rug pulled out at 36 hours is stupid bad.
Going back your really have to go back a long time to find a good snow here. December 2018 was a hefty event but it almost all fell late at night and has changed to plain rain by mid morning which took a lot of luster from it
Canadian STILL shows a 2-4” snowstorm for Raleigh.
I get it, the trends are concerning. I feel the same way. But even so, all the reliable models still align for a 2-4” snowfall over central NC…. A month ago we’d all be jumping for joy
^^^this. We were looking at a 1-3” sleet storm 2 days ago now, a 2-4” snowstorm with arctic air and high ratios. I see nothing cataclysmic from the modeling at this point. Definitely on edge but we’re still in a good spot
GFS held serve. Beggars can’t be choosers, yes totals are not super high but RDU looks really good for a 2-4” snowfall and temps in the 20’s STILL despite the doom and gloom here. That would be an awesome storm
If y’all wanna see a migration to the sanitarium wait for the RDU folks to have gone through last weekends swing and whiff to the west then have a beautiful setup for days and days only to have the rug pulled out from under them inside 48 hours with a swing and whiff to the east
I will say this- I’m not pushing the panic button yet unless the euro/cmc cave at 12z. CAMs struggle with LP development due to convective feedback and we really aren’t in the timeframe thar is considered to be their wheelhouse yet. The 6z euro and 0z Canadian had actually trended very favorably from their previous runs. Definitely more on edge than 24 hours ago but still feel like central NC-east is in a good spot
A VERY good analog of this system in the January 28 event last year. Arctic front with late LP development along it. This storm has colder air to work with but dang the Synoptics line up incredibly similar to this setup and the snow map is very similar to what modeling is showing
I’ll be honest- this is a tough one. We’re relying on a low and precip to literally pop overhead as the energy is passing by. No way any model will have a good handle on exactly when that will happen 48 hours out. Literally a few hours makes a huge difference. Not like there will be a precipitation shield moving through the south we/models can hone in on before it gets here. If I’m west of the Triangle, I’m sweating now. Triangle has the nerves on edge after living rent free yesterday. NE NC and SE VA feeling pretty awesome
Only saving grace is the freezing line is offshore the coast and down to savannah Georgia and If taken verbatim then every corner of wake county has a least 5 inches of frozen on the ground after the storm…
I’d imagine the snow areas would benefit from ratios much better that 10:1 with that kind of cold air. Holy hell that’s a mega storm for everyone on this board