NorthHillsWx

Absurd

I’m still thinking we get a system by the last couple days of the month but the AEWs forecast to produce HAVE to produce that first week of September or this season is sunk from having any chance of above normal activity. The bar has been lowered from hyperactive expectations (fast and furious watch for August, lol) to probably now in all likelihood clawing to meet average seasonal activity. There’s still a great signal from almost all ensemble modeling that the period between August 28-September 7 will feature several systems in quick succession. That will be critical to where we land as a season. We miss that period, we’re sitting at September 10, the climatological peak, and downward climo. It’s conceivable at this point we end with BN activity, but that week starting at the end of this month through beginning of September will be absolutely critical from a seasonal perspective

This was the GEFS from a week ago… I mean we’re talking full-on ensemble fail at this point

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

8.2”? I would think a sloppy 1.2” then change to 33 and cold rain would be more appropriate in that scenario

What should we be watching to see if there is any merit to some of the models in developing this trough? It looks like the players are already on the field (over water). Are there any hints that a solution like the GFS with eastern Caribbean development may be onto something at present? As stated, this is not a long or mid range forecast. This should already be starting to show it’s hand.

One point you make that I truly agree with is that few storms with very high intensity several days out end up the strongest at landfall. It always seems the most powerful landfalling storms are the ones that rapidly strengthened into or just before landfall. Ida, Harvey, Laura and of course Michael are great recent examples. And of course Dorian in the Bahamas. Very rarely does a storm mature days out and hold onto a similar high-end intensity into a US landfall. Even Katrina, Rita, and Irma were weakening upon landfall

Great video, I had actually just watched this before I saw your post. The only other similar pressure drop at landfall was with Michael, but still, Andrew reigns king in the modern era

We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least. Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week. On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific.

Picked up 0.08” this evening from a decaying shower

They also had that last gulf system as >70% haha

This will be the first one to set the table for future AEWs. GFS does a good job showing how the SAL circulating through the MDR is modified after each wave passage and the environment becomes better and better. The end of the GFS run shows a very moist environment after the passage of subsequent waves that should lead to MDR development coinciding with peak season.

GFS pushing back the development of the lead AEW even further and kinda splits the next wave. Not looking for specifics at that range but the trend with the first wave is definitely much, much more delayed development if any. The chances of going 0-0-0 in August are slowly creeping up unless something in the Caribbean, GOM, or mid latitudes pops up

0.06” last night/this morning, not sure when, but MTD 2.57”. Hoping for another couple rounds of rain this week especially at my farm where our fall food plots are getting ready to go in.

Not entirely accurate. We’re way below average on most counts. On average a hurricane forms in the Atlantic by August 11, which were 10 days past and adding to that. Also, yes there have been 3 storms, but none made it 2 days and one was a TS for like 6 hours. Our seasonal ACE is at a anemic, bottom % for this time of year, level. There have been 3 (3!) August’s in history without a named storm, and we are going to be flirting with rarified territory there. I think we’ll get a NS but we’re running out of wiggle room on that front, rapidly. Lastly, this was forecast to be a “hyperactive” year, so seasonal #’s are and will continue to be more scrutinized than say if the forecasts predicted an average season. 1999 is a popular analog, but by the end of this week that year we had 3 cat 4’s. That’s not happening this year. Maybe the script flips but we are starting WAY behind the 8-ball

Loving this below average stretch!

Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch

0.68” of rain today brings us to 2.51” for the month. High of 83 but spent the majority of the day in the 70’s. Very widespread rain today across NC

I’ll give myself kudos here: I never bit, especially after they flew that plane in there I did think it had a chance while it was still over the Yucatán but it clearly was sheared and disorganized after it entered BOC. Lesson for all: wait for recon/ascat before jumping to conclusions on convection

I know it’s going to change, but long term average ACE for today’s date is around 20. We’re sitting at 2.8….

Yep, MLC is further south and showing pretty clearly on radar. You can see the disorganization beyond that

I think we’re in for some big east coast impacts over the remainder of the season, though I would drastically cut season numbers based on when the season looks to get going. I think this season ends up with 14-16 NS, 7-8 hurricanes, and 3 majors. And I think at least 3 hurricanes will threaten the east coast with at least 1 actual landfall. Not hype, just looking at the basin, upper air pattern and consistent HP placement, and lack of significant shear especially with that large HP entrenched over the mid latitudes. As floydbyster points out, there are some great analog years for this season with loaded September and octobers. Dry, stable air can be overcome, and the wave train that is almost unanimously forecast to accelerate off the African coast in the coming weeks will fix that issue. This will still be a very significant season with major impact potential, and higher than normal impacts between cape hatteras through the east coast of Florida

I agree with the safety factor but we’re talking worst case scenario here a quick short lived 35-40kt storm. That’s not something the public needs to be aware of, despite gale warnings for sea and flash flood watches. If it had TS force winds I’d agree with the PTC designation. Why was the last system not designated a PTC while this was? That one was more organized and caused more rain than this will?

IMO- this should never have been designated a PTC. Recon clearly revealed an open wave yesterday, it had limited time over water, absolutely no model support even after being labeled an Invest, and a marginal shear environment to work with. I understand it was close to land but we can’t label every wave close to land a PTC. If it had TS force winds already (Like PTC 1) or some model support or some semblance of a developing circulation per recon, I wouldn’t question this. However lacking all of the above, the decision was questionable

0.09” overnight brings monthly total to 1.83”