NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Well above our forecast high of 32. Currently 36.3 Made it up to 39.2. Has since fallen a little bit so that may have been our max. Exceeding guidance/forecast by 7 decrees is significant!
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GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt
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Central NC is and has been cooked for a couple days now unless your hope is Pity flakes or a dusting
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Compare the FV3 to the NAM. It’s freaking comical
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lol the NAM doesn’t even drop any precip in Charleston
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New Orleans gets clobbered on HRRR
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It’s very cold but not extreme. Tuesday has moved from a high of 26 to 32 here and lowest temp is 16 which is about 1 degree colder than lowest we got last cold snap Friday morning
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That and it’s not just suppression. It’s just a flat wave. It has no chance to go up the coast
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The other thing that’s annoying about this is it isn’t even crazy cold anymore. Mid 20s and lower teens been replaced with 30s and mid to upper teens. As in almost the same as our last cold blast. Like if you’re going to suppress our storm to Florida at least give us something interesting
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At this point, go big or go home. Can’t buy an inch of snow might as well shoot for 15
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Birth of an apps runner
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Can you post
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This might be legit too. Low level temps and flow really look like an ice setup
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I know but the heaviest snow area isn’t even showing ANY snow on a single op
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Where in the world are those eastern NC totals coming from? Does that include the late week storm???
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Euro more suppressed. Almost no precip in NC besides immediate coast
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I think a lot comes from the gulf coast likely getting more than most have gotten the last 6 years
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This place went to hell in a handbasket
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HUGE NW shift on ICON. Eastern NC should like
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What a waste of a prolonged January cold snap. If you told me we’d be more than -7 through the first 20 days of January I’d definitely taken my chances
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Brad P and NWS did a fantastic job. Honestly I don’t think most on this forum really bought into the storm without any model consistency and with the real possibility of a strung out mess that was never going to work.
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Y’all will definitely see some snow. The big totals, however, are gone
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I said a long shot lol
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The late week system seems like it would have a chance to produce some snow if it’s close enough to get moisture back. Models are reinforcing the cold and with the new idea of an offshore LP development I don’t see why that wouldn’t be snow if we can get the moisture. Still a long shot but it has previously looked more like a rain event
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As for a full model miss, the Canadian gets the crown. It did trend towards reality yesterday but that’s why you never hug the Canadian. Surprisingly, EURO and EPS gets second place for junk model of this storm. While everything else was trending away it bought into the storm. Now it’s trending back to reality. UK, GFS, and… ICON all seem to have had the correct idea at the furthest range.
