NorthHillsWx

I actually like a night snow. Actually sticks to the roads and fun to watch in the lights. An excuse to open the good bourbon too. I’d love if it started in daytime and peaked in night but beggars cannot be choosers especially here…

Nope. It stays here. It’s ours

Im about to have to log off the models for the day. Not used to positive trends every time I look. Can’t take the kick in the nads I’m sure the GFS will be shortly, vibes too high right now

12z Runs so far: NAM: slower phase. Weaker HP but somehow colder (guess due to less amped). Big snowstorm for the forum ICON: Almost carbon copy of its last 2 runs. Cold, very solid snowstorm for most on the forum, especially N Carolina Come on CMC GFS and Euro!

HOLDDDDDDD

He drew the climo line between A and B lol. But I agree

Hard to complain with that look.

Noticed that but it’s also long range NAM

Yes. If this tracks 40 miles off CL I’ll think RDU stays some type of frozen/freezing. We get into trouble when LP tracks along the coast

I love when GSP gets excited. Easy to tell in their wording

Now THAT is cool

I just want to remind the forum it’s currently Tuesday. Depending on where you are this system arrives at some point Friday. We’re getting into NAM and short range guidance range. There’s developing consensus with the globals. We’re seeing trends develop and other models are picking them up too, the windshield wiping is lessening. This is where we want to be at this range. Cold air source has been solidified more than we were thinking a few days ago. Suppression is off the table. The storm is there across guidance. Phase and exact track are critical but we haven’t been in THIS position since Jan 2022. Excellent discussion on this board. Our posters have been ALL OVER this threat. Now seeing news outlets and Mets sounding the horn. Very very encouraging signs all around. Let’s reel in the GFS. Let’s get some consistency with the strength of the system from the Euro. Ensemble support is there. We’re getting into short range guidance, so going into tomorrow we’ll have even more ways to view modeled storm evolution. Appreciate this board and all the posters. Hoping this one works out for a lot of the folks on here

Raleigh has literally been surrounded by minor snow events this season

Acceptable.

It’s still well west of its ensemble mean. GFS ensemble has a LP position 50 miles off of hatteras. Workable.

I’m not saying it’s correct and it’s the NAM but DPs in single digits to around 10 across most of the Carolina’s as the storm rolls in… That’s a pretty classic wedge setting up

Having the Euro onboard for a decent storm with run to run consistency is so nice

Pretty much every model trended better for most on this forum overnight. EURO CMC and ICON all pretty much agree on storm track, leaving GFS on an island there. As was said above, that’s not usually the island you’d want to die on when making a forecast.

https://www.wral.com/photos-snow-showers-appear-monday-night-in-central-north-carolina/21796426/ Pretty good coating around Henderson and into franklin county with the band

NWS going with likely pops of a wintry mix for my point forecast Friday night. Pretty bullish for them

Go negative tilt just offshore of hatteras

Think it’s going to track through the piedmont again unfortunately

ICON found the I-85 line. My god, it’s happening

I changed it to observations page but it’s a very strong looking band on radar. I think NAM actually showed this band for several runs

Friend near Spring Hope reporting a heavy snow burst and a quick coating on everything