NorthHillsWx

Yep. Buckle up. Season incoming. May not live up to hyperactive expectations but the look beginning in a week, complete with a blocking high across the Atlantic, means land interaction is higher than normal. I’d focus on SW gulf areas and east coast through first week of September as possible areas for TC impact. Too much troughiness/shear in northern gulf but I am increasingly worried for the Carolina’s. Going to be praying for some recurved in a couple weeks

A lot of high rain chances (60-70%) for just 0.06”. Feels like a bit of a forecast bust at least for the immediate triangle area. Cool temps are phenomenal though! High of 76 yesterday and similar today, wow

The last week of August has consistently been shown to become more active per the ensembles. Do not live and die by individual GFS runs. This tropical season feels more like watching a potential southeast snowstorm on these boards…

Part of me wants August to officially go 0-0-0 then have September explode. Would be a very interesting analog to have in our back pocket in the coming years By explode I don’t mean I want death and destruction, but activity to track from a meteorological sense. I know there would be pushback to that statement so here’s your disclaimer

The wave train off Africa seems to really get going after the 24th. Conditions still do not appear too favorable based on current modeling (take with a huge grain of salt and I don’t care that the GFS has a hurricane on it at the end of the run) but the fact more and stronger waves will be moving off the African coast in peak climo means our odds of the Atlantic season getting started are significantly increasing the last week of the month. EPS and GEFS also seem to be sniffing this period out. I wouldn’t hype it but I think it’s very probable we get 1-2 named systems before the month is out

We probably will have a situation where the first couple stronger waves that make it off the African coast act like sacrifices to moisten the environment. It cannot be understated how dry the MDR has been and still is. Nothing is making it through right now. Those storms on the GFS last night are a perfect example. They were almost annular in how the model depicted them and that was the models reaction to them being surrounded by dry air. Most recent run snuffs them out before they get going, much more likely. We will need at least 2 waves to make it most of the the way across the MDR to pave the way for something more organized. That recirculating pool of dry air is quite literally choking out this season

Methinks 98L became a TD while moving onshore and we d likely still a TD. Great radar/sat presentation atm. Also, saw one buoy report with winds around 30-32 and gusts over 40. If this had a full day over the southern GOM with this structure….

We’ll watch how it develops but it looks like a Nor easter to me. If you look at the mid to upper lever wind charts you can see it’s frontal and then the incredible temp decrease on the backside. Further, it rides the edge of the gulfstream and Labrador currents and is likely being fueled by that temp contrast, rather than the warm water of the gulfstream. Looks nor Easter ish to me

For New England it’s actually showing highs in the 50’s while that’s pushing onshore! That’s pretty chilly for mid August!

That is purely a non-tropical nor easter. It has a front attached and a very chilly backside. That’s probably the worst sign for tropical activity at the moment possible. Restregthens the east coast trough and pulls in a fall-like airmass. Will be interesting to watch and probably new England’s best chance at much-needed rainfall but that is NOT tropical

Wind has switched to north and temp has fallen to 69.8 (from 72 earlier this morning). The front is through here. Thank God! Finished with 0.80” yesterday (0.17”) and today (0.63”) for a monthly total of 1.51”

Pretty good predawn rains here and elsewhere this morning. Area from Garner to Goldsboro has been getting clobbered! We’ve missed the heaviest rains but have over an 0.60” between yesterday and this morning and it’s now our 4th day in a row with >.20” so I cannot complain

He/she may be looking at the upset pick of the year, for August at least.

EPS is absurdly quiet for mid-late august. There’s no denying that

0.26” from a feisty storm this afternoon. 0.70” total from last 2 days and 0.87” MTD. High of 94 before the storms cooled us back to 78. Currently a sultry humid evening and 80 degrees with thunder rumbling in the distance. Love these summer evenings

Though I fully agree, the fact that many preseason forecasts called for 20+ storms is why many had that expectation this year. There will assuredly be impactful systems but some of the hype going into this season was more than normal from a numbers perspective, right or wrong. Also- we don’t even have the named swirls to debate this year. It’s just been dead

The fact a 0-0-0 August is even still on the table 10 days into the month with no sign of change is absolutely shocking from what the preseason prognostics seemed to indicate for this season. While I’m sure we will get a named system and possibly a few (it’s long range models folks, they suck) this does not have the look or feel of the hyperactive season that many forecasts indicated. I think that’s officially off the table. An active season is still in reach but the clock is ticking. If we burn through august without a hurricane (unlikely) then September and October are going to have to be nuts, not just above average, and there’s nothing concrete that supports that

Had a surprise cell blow up over the house and drop 0.44” this afternoon

I do not see anything that is changing in the Atlantic over the next 10 days that points to a switch flipping. Rinse, wash, repeat. Waves of anomalous SAL and any disturbances getting dried up, just like the current one. I seriously doubt this makes it through the month, but that is purely based on climatology and the thought that something has to change. There is no hard evidence that a change to active is coming any time soon.

I think the downward revisions by these major seasonal forecast outlets is telling, and I will also say that we have lowered the bar immensely from coming into the 2022 season. The dire predictions of a hyperactive season cannot be forgotten. Now with the start date looking pushed back past mid August, it looks almost impossible to get a season with that many storms. Sure, it likely will end up at least average to above average, but forecasting a hyperactive season and getting an average season is a major bust imo from some of the leading seasonal forecasters. That being said, hurricane season is not dead. August can and likely will turn on. September is and always will be the peak month. And we all know it only takes one storm to hit the right area and it’s a memorable season. But numbers wise, 18 storms seems like a stretch at this point given where we’re at and the continued hostile look for the next 10 days. GaWx’s discussion above is spot on, imo

Brutal summer for us as a whole. Going to remember this one. Lack of interesting tropical weather has made it all the worse.

Morning GFS: EPAC = weenie run Entire Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM = better luck next August long range and just one model but man I can’t remember the goofus being so dead in long range all season to this point. SAL just dominates.

Picked up just 0.05” yesterday which brought my monthly total to 7.61”.

What a bust for rainfall this weekend. We went from an 80% chance of rain today (yesterday mornings forecast) to no rain in the forecast and sunny. Tomorrow still showing 60-70% chances but NOTHING like the rainfall we were thinking over the last 5 days. Thankfully we’re at over 7.5” for the month here so it’s not that bad but what a forecast bust from just 24 hours out

It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning.