NorthHillsWx

UK GFS and CMC all colder at surface for most

I’m still highly skeptical of a large ZR area. It seems extremely likely someone will get a crippling ice storm given the unusual cold north of us and strong low level CAA but these miller As almost always trend to a narrower ZR area and more sleet. Also, the cold is deep and entrenched over Va and the high is building in as the storm moves in. Seems like a recipe for more sleet as the storm goes on and flip to snow if a deform band sets up…

I said this yesterday and I’ll stand by it but if this phases sooner (assuming same track) and a deform band forms I really think a lot of the western piedmont will flip to snow. That probably won’t be reflected on models until we get closer but with models seemingly ticking colder, at the surface I’d have to think 925s will too and dynamics may be able to overcome the 850 torch. Sadly colder lower levels don’t mean a fat warm nose can’t still exist but this looks to be a dynamic storm that can overcome a moderate warm nose with rates. Some of the soundings in the upstate and foothills show a thick warm nose but it isn’t much more than +1 which might be workable with small changes

6z GEFS was the best low track yet from that suite. Would seem to be colder/snowier

Here we go:

In a year that actually featured winter weather for the entire forum, it seems fitting that we finally buck the trend of early spring in February, with a major winter storm showing up midweek. The pattern is ripe for winter weather and models have been unusually locked in on a storm threat for the last 10 days. The storm has a very cold airmass to work with to the north but as always, track, timing, strength and depth of cold air will be critical to determining who gets what and how much. As we inch closer to “go time” it is becoming apparent this will likely be a high end storm for parts of the east coast, and it will be a mixed bag for NC/SC and possibly even north Georgia. Lots to iron out over the next few days but there is potential for high amounts of snow and ice over parts of the forum. Let’s get this thing rocking!

You’re in a great spot. It’s tough to decipher but line looks like I-85 with ice for triangle to coastal plain

This honestly looks like a colder version of 2002.

lol the AI with the casual 200 mile NW jump to be in lockstep with everything else. Actually colder at surface with ice for central NC. As scooby says, ruh roh!

Everything looks like it trended a tick colder at the surface than 0z. This matters bc if it’s 26-27 vs 29-30 I’d have to think 925’s would be colder too and we could sleet instead of ice for some of the event. If it is in fact 26-27 with freezing rain, those high end ice totals will be realized

Looks like it might cut inland. Looks miller B

Hey, we might come close to equaling our snow total over the last 3 years in ice!

It’s a major winter storm for NC and southern VA. Major major ice storm here.

Pretty solid model agreement on an ice storm for us

Icon drops 1.50” of precip and 99% is modeled as freezing rain for Raleigh. I don’t have freezing rain maps but that would likely be at least 0.75” of ice

925s are 0 to -1 along and west of US 1 during the peak of the precip on ICON. Folks thats not freezing rain. That’s a sleet bomb

Yikes is right…

I worry the 1”+ freezing rain will show up over my house on that run

Mixing aside, ICON is a HELL of a winter storm for NC

ICON MUCH colder

I think the triangle area is at its highest risk of a devastating ice storm since December 2002

GEFS was much more suppressed/wintry in the Carolina’s, FYI.

The low level CAA is strong with this one

It was colder at the surface. Ice all the way to the coast. I’d have to think there was a lot of sleet showing as freezing rain.

It’s a late bloomer but it’s better than 12z I guess. Definitely more amped along the coast