NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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FV3 and NAM gonna be good runs for central NC
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Not going to lie, watching the Euro join the trend with everything else is giving me hope. This is the first time we’ve had consensus on a trend across suites. When the euro headfaked everyone a couple days ago everything else was going opposite direction. One thing that seems locked in is New Orleans getting historic snowfall amounts. I have family in Lafayette and they are beyond excited. If we get snow it’ll make me much more happy to cheer for the gulf coast, lol
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And the sky is still blue
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So tonight, after having just the FV3 giving my area snow this morning, the GFS, EURO, ICON, NAM, and FV3 all have snow here. That’s a pretty significant cross model shift at least here. Keep in mind we’re not talking big amounts. At this point 1/2” seems like a win. I’m not expecting a big storm by any means. By 1” is certainly back on the table
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An inch would be epic to me at this point
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I love this place.
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I love the GFS so very much. The definition of consistency
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GFS gets 0.05-0.10” all the way to the NW triad this run. Keep in mind 0.15” probably gets you an inch in these temps. Really not a huge adjustment needed to get impactful snows across the piedmont if these trends continue
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Honestly I may log off again bc since I left pretty much everything trended this direction
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MAYBE we gave up just a little early….
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GFS gonna push the precip way NW from previous runs I believe
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I kinda laid off models for a little while but looking at this afternoons data I’d feel much better about accumulations in eastern NC than yesterday! Very positive trends there
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ICON too. Not NW but more neutral
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Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!
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NAM to RDU folks “You will take your flurries and you will like them!” Pretty big jump on most guidance. Don’t think this gets the triangle back into the game but it might be good for eastern NC peeps.
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Well above our forecast high of 32. Currently 36.3 Made it up to 39.2. Has since fallen a little bit so that may have been our max. Exceeding guidance/forecast by 7 decrees is significant!
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GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt
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Central NC is and has been cooked for a couple days now unless your hope is Pity flakes or a dusting
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Compare the FV3 to the NAM. It’s freaking comical
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lol the NAM doesn’t even drop any precip in Charleston
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New Orleans gets clobbered on HRRR
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It’s very cold but not extreme. Tuesday has moved from a high of 26 to 32 here and lowest temp is 16 which is about 1 degree colder than lowest we got last cold snap Friday morning
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That and it’s not just suppression. It’s just a flat wave. It has no chance to go up the coast
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The other thing that’s annoying about this is it isn’t even crazy cold anymore. Mid 20s and lower teens been replaced with 30s and mid to upper teens. As in almost the same as our last cold blast. Like if you’re going to suppress our storm to Florida at least give us something interesting
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At this point, go big or go home. Can’t buy an inch of snow might as well shoot for 15
