My location has received less than 1” over the last 40 days and almost all of that came from 1 system. We have received measurable rain just 3 of the last 40 days and central NC is now in moderate-severe drought
What looked like a sure fire 1/2” all week with the frontal passage has evaporated literally into a chance of not getting anything. Also, the low keeps trending east. Places west of 95 are out of the game
Has the look of another over-achiever on sat. HWRF says it gets close to a mid October cat 5. I’ll start putting a little more stock in the hurricane models now that we have a defined system.
With the nonstop NE fetch and offshore hurricanes it’s been the worst case scenario unfortunately. That’s even without a direct tropical landfall in the area. There hasn’t been a single week going back to July without a significant NE blow I cannot ever remember another summer like this on the OBX
Not tropical but most models are forecasting a very strong east coast low this weekend that will likely severely impact areas of the OBX that have seen devastating erosion this summer due to an almost nonstop NE fetch and numerous strong hurricanes driving wave run up. Buxton has been devastated this summer and this weekend will likely send even more houses into the water. Very bad situation there this year even though we have mostly dodged all tropical bullets
It’s been a strange season but one thing that has held up was the idea of the SW Atlantic producing. Record high OHC translated into an epic season for that specific part of the basin
The southern side is much stronger right now and would be in line with the forward motion but models keep building a strong sting jet over the NW quad at some point near or over the island partly due to interaction with Humberto. Not a totally tropical evolution but one to watch to boost winds at a bad time for Bermuda.
Imelda is trying to look pretty at the moment. Don’t think it holds this classic eye look for long though but it is definitely strengthening right now
Pressure falls continuing (looks possibly like sub 970) and winds starting to catch up. FL winds to 100kts this last pass and SFMR winds coming up at well. Bermuda is in for a serious blow. HWRF brings this to a major right over the island. I think cat 2 is most likely but the ceiling remains low end cat 3