NorthHillsWx

Foothills folks might leave this hobby if 12z came to fruition though

12z gfs op was its coldest run yet. My god. The gates to the Arctic open and stay that way

Yes but it does have the same storm shown on GFS. Slower to phase. But it’s there

Pretty wild to see both the Euro and GFS showing RDU at 5 or below on the 9-10th although it’s a result of deep snow cover on the GFS and just insane cold on the Euro

06z GFS delivers again on the 8th

That’s about the most sustained cold I’ve ever seen modeled on the GEFS. Source region just reloads and keeps sending it. I’ve been a 3/4 glass empty person and will continue to be until it snows again but that’s a fricking lot of cold modeled on the ensembles

Wash, rinse, repeat

It goes without saying, seeing those snow maximums on the ensembles over the water should concern everyone in this upcoming pattern.

I’m not seeing what others are noting on the ensembles in regards to moisture availability. Everything looks exceptionally dry if you take out the rain from the 2-4th period. So once the cold follows that system there is a very strong signal for it to be very dry. Maybe someone could show me the opposite but I don’t see anything but dry cold following that system

I’ll take my 15” of snow followed by 0 degrees and call her a season

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone!

Last year someone posted the stages of winter snow lovers in the south. That needs to resurface

We are going to seriously undercut our forecast of 29 tonight. Already 28.2

Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now

We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year

18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice

Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all

High of 39 yesterday. Low of 22. My gauge at the farm in Louisburg bottomed out at 13.9! Raleigh is an oven

They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W

It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone

18z GFS was a disaster but ensembles have the pattern we want. I’m not getting excited until we’re in the 7 day range

Not as cold as forecast for my location. Bottomed out at 24.7

12z GFS is a dream run for mountain folks around the 30th

We picked up 0.19” of rain last night after reaching a high of 71

We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years.