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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Just the usual elevated severe analog numbers. way out there though like past 300hrs. We'll see.
  2. Kmlwx
    CIPS in the long range is lighting up again
  3. Kmlwx
    How long until the first water rescue near the beltway when somebody drives into deep standing water?
  4. Kmlwx
    You should report that flooding to NWS - runoff here is really impressive.
  5. Kmlwx
    Decent CAPE and decent shear equaled this - even in the absence of good ML lapse rates. Also many of us got good sun today. It was a recipe for a good performance of severe weather. Number of LSRs is impressive. This will easily verify the watch and the overall risk area from SPC it looks like. Will be fun to see this show up in future years CIPS guidance.
  6. Kmlwx
    Marble sized hail at peak in Colesville, MD. Huge runoff down the street and into the creeks near Springbrook HS now. Will be interesting to watch the stream gauge at Kemp Mill.
  7. Kmlwx
    Juicy 90+ temps can work wonders if the right trigger goes through. We also had enough shear to get some updraft rotation like the earlier discussions. More organized version of the July-style pulse severe we get where a cell goes up but quickly collapses.
  8. Kmlwx
    Pea sized hail coming down in Colesville, MD! Torrential rain as well. Funny that the lead cell ended up delivering hail for me. The earlier dominant cell will go S of me it seems.
  9. Kmlwx
    TDCA is seeing some 50-55mph winds with the Montgomery cell still. Wind threat does seem to be a touch lower than before. CIMMS probsevere numbers a bit lower again as well - but could rise again.
  10. Kmlwx
    New warning deeper into Montgomery. Includes inside the beltway but not DC yet. Warned for 60mph and half dollar hail.
  11. Kmlwx
    The SCIT path confirms this.
  12. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere numbers are coming down a bit now with the MoCo/Loudoun cell. Let's see if it collapses or pulses back up at some point. It may be encountering some stabilized airmass as it's now entering the area where the front running cells were.
  13. Kmlwx
    Some of the hail numbers on the Loudoun/MoCo cell are coming down now. Still a heck of a storm - and a neat shape/look to the cell as a whole on the KLWX radar. So far I haven't seen much ground truth from it, though.
  14. Kmlwx
    It's a messy looking radar overall. Definitely the signature when there's not much inhibition and stuff just wants to fire.
  15. Kmlwx
    VIL numbers on the Loudoun/MoCo cell are really impressive. Looks like the core of the VIL will head near or just south of Poolesville on current track.
  16. Kmlwx
    That is a GREAT shot!
  17. Kmlwx
    My guess is that the Loudoun/Montgomery cell may weaken before it gets to me...but that's a really, really nice storm.
  18. Kmlwx
    The Loudoun cell is preparing to cross over into Montgomery. That cell seems to have some legs so far. That may be the one to watch for the closer in northern DC burbs and even DC proper. It's heading ESE and continues to look impressive both on KLWX and TIAD. Question is the impact of the lead cells near Gaithersburg and the beltway. Those could leave behind a bit of a stabilized airmass for the larger, more intense cell.
  19. Kmlwx
    Heads up Leesburg! Heck of a cell now. Good velocity continues on the TIAD scans.
  20. Kmlwx
    ProbSevere for wind spiked big time with the Loudoun cell!
  21. Kmlwx
    https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  22. Kmlwx
    Seems like a compact area of potential 60-65mph winds heading towards Leesburg judging by the TIAD radar.
  23. Kmlwx
    the ProbSevere placefile that @Eskimo Joe has shared before is printing out abnormally high values for some of these cells. Have gotten used to them staying under 30% most days.
  24. Kmlwx
    Severe criteria winds showing up on the TIAD radar on the Loudoun cell heading for Montgomery. Could head towards me if it keeps intensity.
  25. Kmlwx
    The Loudoun complex/cell bears watching as well. Nothing severe - but there may be a developing wind signature on that - 35-40mph range for now. But that may be organizing further. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with the outflow from the storms to the SE of it.
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