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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The one thing is that they probably mean substantial relative to this week's threats (which seem marginal for now). So "more substantial" could mean just a step above that.
  2. Kmlwx
    At this point I'm pretty meh on the remainder of the week. We'll see about Thursday. Intrigued (for now) on Monday. Doldrums around here lately.
  3. Kmlwx
    Would be cool to see ARs 3676, 3683, 3674, 3679 and the group just emerging into view form the east limb all merge and grow into a sunspot group to end all sunspot groups.
  4. Kmlwx
    Paging @Eskimo Joe - the 18z GFS throws at least some semblance of better-than-normal mid-level lapse rates our way a few times next week.
  5. Kmlwx
    GFS is very lame (in terms of parameters) though nearly the end of the run. Will see how this changes the in the coming days.
  6. Kmlwx
    I'm a little more optimistic the later into May we get. Obviously, it would be helpful is we had June heat/humidity available.
  7. Kmlwx
    NW flow comes to mind. That could be what they are referencing. If a little kink in the flow can come at us at the right angle, perhaps even with some EML advecting from the west, we could do very well. GFS has teased us with a few potential threats in the fantasy ranges the last few runs.
  8. Kmlwx
    If anything I'd expect it to run early rather than late. The earlier CMEs probably cleared things out enough to allow a faster forward speed. But space weather is fickle and unpredictable...even more so than Earth weather!
  9. Kmlwx
    Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland
  10. Kmlwx
    There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it.
  11. Kmlwx
    The HRRR past few runs have actually moved that Garret Co stuff through parts of the area tonight - even holding it together somewhat. It could really put a damper on northern light viewing, though.
  12. Kmlwx
    Maybe we can get an Eskimo Joe style disaster and the grid will fail.
  13. Kmlwx
    Meh. Back to tracking solar flares and CMEs
  14. Kmlwx
    I feel like this is the most likely option.
  15. Kmlwx
    Solid "blind" guess would be the usual climo favored spots of Fred/Carroll or down in Charles County east to the Bay. Rest of us may just watch and wave at the storms passing in the distance. Maybe we can all score a gusty outflow.
  16. Kmlwx
    Let's see what the 12z says when it comes out in the next hour or two. I think somebody will get walloped tomorrow - just not at all convinced it won't be fairly isolated/narrow.
  17. Kmlwx
    It blows a cell through Southern Maryland on the "classic" La Plata track it seems too. I'm intrigued enough for tomorrow. We'll see.
  18. Kmlwx
    Doesn't this stuff usually speed up?
  19. Kmlwx
    Initiation is often a problem for us
  20. Kmlwx
    I agree. I don't see much of anything suggesting "widespread severe" for us. The only conclusion I can make is that LWX is assuming that the models for subsequent days need to see the resolution of prior day convection and that they are only talking about potential. Who knows...kinda weird
  21. Kmlwx
    Both April 28, 2002 and June 13, 2013 are popping up on the CIPS analogs from the 12z run. This is looking at the 84hr panels. Also the LWX HWO is already mentioning large hail and 70mph winds from storms Thursday. Bullish. I guess a lot will depend on how the next few days of severe evolves.
  22. Kmlwx
    I'm pretty under-whelemed about this entire week. I'm sure many of us will hear thunder at some point but it looks pretty meh in terms of any really exciting weather stuff rolling through. We may continue our wait for a pattern that gets stuff to this side of the mountains. Lots of the good parameters so far this spring have looked great well to the west and then died off - and bad timing (as always).
  23. Kmlwx
    I'm still keeping an eye on it. Though it seems like each day could have a significant mitigating factor. Plenty of time for one day to shine through as a legit threat, though. I think the OH Valley is more of a lock than us.
  24. Kmlwx
    Still a severe signal for a threat or two in the Tue-Fri timeframe. I'm not "super enthused" for our area. But stuff can sneak up on us. For now just bears watching. One of those days (or more) could perform. CIPS still has some indication.
  25. Kmlwx
    La Plata tornado was April 28, 2002. Analogs are showing up around 4/25 so it's not a "perfect" match - and I did look at the H5 maps - it was a MUCH sharper vort pass
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