Holston_River_Rambler

Euro looked kinda interesting at 500mb in the eastern US at the end of its run. Not sure it’s worth an gif at 240 hours but I guess the control could be fun past 240.

Yeah, but it ain't the prettiest control run, lol. I don't have the H5 anomalies for the control, but the 300mb winds give a good idea of the pattern.

Here ye go feller:

Lawsy Mercy. I woke up and saw I had 3 (count that 3!!) notifications. Made me a little nervous, lol ! Mr Kevin, you will be happy to note that the BOMM chart has updated and now reflects one day later, Dec 8: A loop'd loop in 8 forecast!?! What's the world coming to? I mean that looks like a pretty solid bet of at least some time in 8. Of course assuming that BOMM's RMM forecast has the right idea. The Euro has it, but is a wee bit slower: Even ye olden GFS looks pretty solid: Even the worst case scenarios on the GFS take it to the "off the charts" territory in 6 and the last time we went there, it facilitated a SSW, originating over N. Asia: Jan - March 2018: Hmmmm 2018... That seems to have had a similar ENSO look: (Blue = La Nina; Red = El Nino) source: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I may be misremembering, but wasn't 2018 the year we had the SSW in late Feb. and then that put the squoosh on Spring until late May? Actually I went back and looked and I think that SWW was in late Feb (22nd?) 2017. We did however have a SSW in early 2018 a pretty good chance around March 12 of that year. Here are some relevant images and comments from that March: Some how one of the gifs of the HRRR's take on the system survived the 3.5 years: Yeah it doesn't look great, but the ground truth was a little south. I think there are some hypotheses we can throw out based on the above, but simply suggesting these "if this, then thats" do be all I haz energy for this AM. Also, High Latitude Blocking of some sort looks like a pretty safe bet to me too, between Christmas and New Year, its just a question of where it develops and how it evolves. Does it develop and evolve in favorable areas for the TN Valley, or no?

Some of y'all may have already seen this, but Webb posted the BOMM MJO RMM forecast today (It seems like its link has been dead at the CPC MJO site since mid 2020): I think like Jeff mentioned these tropical critters are going to slow its progression down even more and this BOMM forecast seems to show that well. Not happy to see it forecast to collapse into the COD as it moves into 8, but I think most of us would be happy to see it make it there. Watch this little critter to the east of New Guinea: In the past few years we've seen the MJO try to progress past 6/7ish and it gets sapped by a tropical critter in this area. I think it is the SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone). Masiello noted this as well a few days ago, in dialogue with Webb. On his gif you can see a mirror cyclone developing N of the equator as the Equatorial Rossby waves associated with the MJO pulse head east: Found this while trying to puzzle out the connections between Rossby Waves/ Kelvin Waves/ and the MJO: http://kejian1.cmatc.cn/vod/comet/tropical/MJO_EqWaves/navmenu.php_tab_1_page_2.2.2_type_text.htm I thought It might be of interest to some. Happy Hour GFS has a nice suppressed storm track: In no way trying to connect this gif to the tropical stuff above, but thought it was a pretty pattern for fantasy land. Looks to me like HL Blocking funneling energy and cold from the pole.

Yeah I saw that and was like "Ooooh some new forum I can haunt!!" lol

Skunked. Nary a flake.

The tension is building:

Woo hoo!!! I just checked radar and was about to ask what you had. The precip band is still about 4-5 miles north of me.

Looks like they're headed towards my way too. Little warm up here at my place at 38, but we'll see.

Ehrmergerd, could it be? GFS 50 mb Heights: GFS 10 mb heights: GFS 10 mb temps: Obvs still a long way to go, but 6z GFS was interesting regarding the strat.

NAMs, RGEM, and RAP all show a quick shot of snow tomorrow AM for extreme NE TN and SW VA. Just based on living here as long as I have, the RAP's solution looks realistic to me: I fully expect 27, 8 x 10 glossy photos with circles and arrows illustrating all 27 snowflakes that fall, lol. Seriously, if I could get away tomorrow AM, I would drive to the Grayson Highlands and brave the biting ponies, for my one exact hour of light snow.

TBH, I'm kind of waiting for Jeff to lay the smack down on me for bringing up the MJO again. (And from Twitter no less). Please be merciful Jeff. We weenies have to have hope.

Thoughts? Webb has a Masiello endorsement...

RGEM still showing a few flakes Wed AM: The NAM suite is ever so slightly flatter with the jet to our north and so there isn't as much lift. And just so it's clear, I'm not hoping for some crippling doom storm. I'm shooting for an hour of wet, light snow somewhere in the N. Plateau, SW VA or NE TN. But hey the "Thunder in the Mountains" (TIM model) is coming in with a good run at 12z:

OP Euro wants to make sure we are good and soaked :

A little (always successful ) "just in time" wintry action at the end of the hi reses at 18z

In terms of just having some cold around the TN Valley (which is I guess where we are at this point), the Euro has some light snow over KY in the wee hours of Wed morning.

One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that: That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19: ] Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen.

Normally not a huge BAMWX fan, but:

Today felt like a January thaw after the past few weeks. It just feels weird to have the January thaw feeling/ warm breeze before Christmas. Gut feeling is that this is going to flip hard later in Dec. I know, I'll go ahead and do it myself:

Overnight Euro starting to get ye olden rainy GFS look: Let's consider the OP's Norther American look at the end of its run: Obviously not a good look, but how many good looks have we seen at 240 hours that dissolve within even 7 days? Even if this does happen, (climatologically more likely than a good look for us) notice the connection between the SE ridge and ridging over Baffin Bay. Carvers, I think, remembers that look from 2018. Might could be some warming up yonder: now a little bit lower at 50mb: To me, even though the temp anomalies are close to stacked up, they don't quite sync up, so there is some instability (TBH not sure if that is the right word for anything that high up) I think there's some interesting stuff happening in the strat, but not only do we have to get to mid December to see how it plays out up there, but then we have to wait to see how and if it trickles down to the troposphere. GFS is not as enthused as the Euro for the temp anomalies.

The GFS speculates that any unfortunate aridity shall soon come to an end with our normal La Nina El Nino Winter monsoon pattern. Just think what surpluses of rain John could reach between today and April?!?! Trend gif of the last approx. 16 runs of the GFS total precip EPS members (admittedly only one run) seem a bit drier: But you know, if the we do actually get into the floody pattern that we all know and love, soon janetjanet will pay us a visit or two.

Found a fun new tool this AM: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100&center=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2&timespan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true