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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hi res models have been pretty consistent with a fetch of Lake Michigan
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM and RGEM look pretty good for NW flow on the 6z runs.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, one sort of meta-pattern I've thought about for the past few days is that the 1.5 week cool downs interspersed with the warmer periods seem to be later in the month since Oct. So it may even be like the 23rd IMO, before the next big front tosses us a change up. I also feel like the Oct cold snap was worse than the Nov. one. If that's the case this months one may be less impressive than the Dec one (it would be pretty hard for it to be worse lol) and the Feb one may be worse than the potential Jan one. All that of course implies the repeating pattern is legit. Some of that is almost wooly worm level on my part though lol.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET for the bowling ball FWIW: I'm not even looking at precip. type for that, but guessing it is elevation dependent. Ukie does seem to be digging a bitmore than 0z.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    And just to be clear I’m not giving up totally on next weeks bowling ball, it could still trend better or we could get some good upslope. For the above (wrt the 20th) I’m just talking in terms of the long wave pattern.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    not looking good so far, lol sorry for the double post but the edit to the original wouldn't embed the picture.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I honestly think we're looking at the 20th at least before we see a better and more average pattern in terms of temps.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anybody in SWVA SEKY or the tri cities seeing snow?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think that's banter. Cool to look at!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    A snapshot of just one 6 hr period on that run:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know that I've ever seen anything over the 30" color contour outside of the Sierra or some random NAM run for LeConte If this holds together as a bowling bowl at the very least I bet we get one heck of a NAMing for someone.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I move the post from banter to here just so more people will be likely to see it. Please, no one put much stock in this and get let down if it doesn't happen
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was the official VA Creeper Trail weenie run of the year
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ensembles: EPS MSLP members: H5 anomalies: GEFS MSLP members H5 anomalies: GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS 0z EPS: 6z GEFS centered on the same time:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight CMC clown map:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Meteocentre now has the Euro again, so we can compare the 98 storm to this one with the same color schemes: 98 upcoming pattern: I wish I could get em side by side, but I can't.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the individual low centers on the EPS:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is going to be fun for the bowling ball system next week, lol
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some of you SWVA folks @BuCoVaWx @BlunderStorm Some of the Hi res 12z models are giving you some snow early Sat AM. As is the custom I have chosen the model that shows the most snow (RGEM) and chosen the prettiest graphic presentation of said snowfall (COD)
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this over in the West Coast sub forum: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/#IWV atmospheric river models if anyone wants to fantasize about being in the Sierras
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