midatlanticweather

I take it tomorrow is a stretch. Not looking very probable - ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon.

48.2 this morning. So nice

50 for the low. Loving the cool temperature

0.02 outta small showers. Back n the drought feels again

Would love a map showing rain totals. The ones I am getting are all over the place and not great. Any ideas?

5.45" Tuesday through today. Definitely drought denting if not elimination for many in Western Loudoun. I am seeing reports of people seeing well over 8 inches in parts of west-central Loudoun for the event which I believe was the max deficits out this way.

AS much as I was following stuff last night, have there been damage reports in the area from the Confirmed tornado last night? I see some down in Central VA near Lake Caroline. I may have missed it in all the posts, but I am not seeing much from the outlets I follow.

It looks like there is a CC drop on the storm. EDIT: The next scan did not show it anymore

Dang. This looks ready to spin up

Good CC drop now!

Maybe more shenanigans near Middleburg

Good couplet - I so not see any CC

It just got warned!

That rotation near Bull Run has my attention.

Dang

Dang! Missed this earlier

Warning posted!

Radar Estimates just topped 6 inches in Purcellville. I am 2 miles away and have 1.5 inches now. I am still surprised there is no warning.

Lwx needs to expand the flood watch to Loudoun (at least western Loudoun). Some have had 5.5 inches of rain or more in spots according to radar. Lots more activity showing up. I was thinking that they had to be close on a warning earlier with that one downpour in west central Loudoun

WPC shifts east a bit.

And the close up of the rain

Another view of the WPC heavy rain axis shift