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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    The 18z RGEM would have been a nice hit and the 18z Icon was pretty good but they are 18z's of course so saying it's over after a bad 18z GFS run 4 days out run with a known south and east bias is a little premature.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes, at this point I would agree with that.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    Walt said 1-3 because he was worried about possible mixing issues along the coast on the 00z CMC. 12z was further east and colder.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    So once in 8 years.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    You are obviously new here. The guy never thinks it's going to snow and any model that shows nothing or warm and wet is the model that he hugs. I have never seen a positive post from him about an upcoming event if it means a snow possibility. With this snow potential next week the CMC, GFS, Ukie, Icon show a possible wintry solution to differing degrees. The Euro shows nothing. Which model do you think he is touting right now? I just laugh.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    Finished with 12 inches. Nice little storm. Good thing winter didn't end in December.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    28 with heavy snow. Picked up about 3 in the last hour. Up to about 8 now.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    And you were worried.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    Loving all the snow reports. 31 with steady light snow, started about 15 minutes ago.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    and driest.
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    Me too. I think min is 6 and absolute max is 10.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    Winter storm warning just issued for Dutchess county. 5 to 9 Saturday night and 3 to 5 on Sunday. I'm thinking the lower end around 8 in Poughkeepsie area.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    I don't trust the 3k or hrrr unless it's within 24 hours, maybe even 12.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    It's basically showing what most other models are showing in the area which is .8-1.0 total QPF. The Euro was the driest with .6-.8. It seems this system is lacking dynamics once the initial precip comes through and then some areas get dry slotted.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    Most models have BL temps in mid 30's in NYC metro and Long Island. It's going to be difficult to get significant accums in those areas. Those 10:1 maps are bogus.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    They aren't perfect and tend to be on the warm side but I would take that combo over the Nam/GFS every time.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    I think a frond end thump is a pretty good bet especially along and north of 84. That high and blocking means business and the CAD is pretty strong. The CMC and GFS are recognizing this more than the Euro right now.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    It's been so meh after the "upgrade". It used to be the king not it's more like Euro trash IMO.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    Not to spoil the fun but it's babka.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    Regardless of the exact track I'm honestly surprised by the meh QPF on the 12z Euro. I would think it would be more than .75 or so given the source region and tapping some atlantic moisture. Pretty weak if you ask me.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    Thanks for that info because we couldn't possibly see that.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    Yup, you would think it's been tropical from the talk. It's been an average December up here in MHV. Yesterday's high was 37 with snow showers. Last night went down to 22 and today's high was 35. After a mild weekend most of next week will be close to 40 for daytime highs. Not planting any palm trees here.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    36 and mostly snow here in Dutchess, coating on cars and grass.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    There are plenty of spots that have reported 7-8 inches so far and it's not over yet.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    55 with some light rain still. 3.10 in the bucket.
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