HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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Not up here. NWS Albany saying they expect 8-10:1 for much of storm.
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I don't know about model consensus right now. FWIW the Ukie, CMC, RGEM, and 18z Nam are all showing less than 6 inches when using less than 10:1 ratio.
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I just got a WSW issued here in Dutchess which is surprising because NWS Albany isn't an office that issues advisories/watches well in advance like other offices.
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These models have no clue still. 18z nam gives me 15 inches less than 12z, lol.
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That model hasn't been that great either. It's usually too warm and too light on precip.
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I was speaking in general terms, not just this storm. I don't trust that model. Actually I don't trust any 1 model.
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Some people think it's a good model but all I see is flip flopping run to run and questionable thermals.
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33 with some light snow. Picked up 2 inches for a total of 17.5 this season.
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34 with moderate snow, sticking to colder surfaces.
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38 and rain right now IMBY.
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Still hate 10:1 maps in this setup. Do Pivotal 10:1 maps count sleet as snow?
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Can't be using 10:1 ratio maps in a marginal thermal event.
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18z Vs 12z is considerably more in northern areas. .5 vs .3 by me.
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The CMC also shows a deepening coastal.
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Both CMC and Euro are similar in terms of 2nd wave which is a coastal. GFS on it's own right now.
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Wave 1 looks like a 1-2 inch type event for most and that's only because most precip falls at night. Wave 2 still a ways out but CMC looks similar to 00z Euro. Dicey at coast but interior would do well. GFS not impressed but will probably correct.
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Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave.
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That's not including all of the second wave. You have to go out further for northern areas. It still likely won't be accurate at 10:1.
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That is incorrect, especially north of the city. If that particular scenario were to verify most of the precip would fall at night when temps were close to 30(especially around 84) so it would accumulate.
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The models are struggling right now. Every model run is a different adventure. I don't think we start to see better consistency until mid week.
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That's a low bar.
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It's a terrible model all the time.
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33 with a light mix. Picked up 1.5 inches of snow/sleet cement mix overnight.
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33 and a major sleetfest
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Down to 33, moderate snow, sticking on colder surfaces.
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