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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    They updated the forecast late this afternoon from 7-13 to 4-8 but nearly every piece of guidance shows barely anything. I think it's pretty obvious where this is going. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we got only a dusting. They also didn't update the briefing from 4:30am that shows Poughkeepsie area getting 8-12. It's just strange.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know what they are thinking.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    Big changes today.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    I don't, lol. I thought it was a lock to see 8-12 a little north of 84, now it looks 4-8. Maybe.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    You think they are going to disregard globals such as GFS, Euro, CMC and just look at mesos? No way.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    3K Nam
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    00z runs will be interesting. I'm always leery of off hour runs.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    Not every model run is going to be exactly the same. I see no real difference except 12z nam is a little west with the low and GFS a tad east.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    Where exactly?
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    This is true but they are in the business of accurate forecasts. Haven't watched that channel in years.
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    Where is the south shift that some speak of? I see none of this at 12z.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    CMC has been abysmal with this storm. Ens prob above gives NYC metro nearly 100% of >1 but gives places south of Albany less chance. Not going to happen.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    See you after the Euro.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    Seems like even the nam is based more in reality than the CMC.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    Losing a lot of respect for the CMC with this one. It's either going to pull off a major coup or it's been just absolutely awful with this one.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    WSW posted for 6-9 inches in MHV and NW Ct.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    It doesn't look good but it's still not over for NYC metro. Maybe 1-3. Still no consensus among models. It's basically Euro/GFS/ICON vs CMC/NAM/Ukie.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    Yea and you are talking about the GFS 190 hours out. These models are still trying to figure out this upcoming event less than 72 hours out.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    It is yes, but it did come north at least 50 miles with precip field.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    It did come north at 18z FWIW.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    33 with moderate snow, around a half inch.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    34 with light snow and a little sleet mixed in. Starting to stick.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    Alternating between light rain and brief periods of moderate/heavy snow depending on precip intensity. Just a trace of snow on colder surfaces. Temp steady at 34. Hoping for some accumulation later this afternoon and evening.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    34 with light rain/snow mix now.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    34 with moderate/heavy snow, starting to stick to colder surfaces.
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