Nobody in NW NJ and mid hudson valley is seeing anywhere near those totals. Poughkeepsie area is maybe 1-2, Albany area is 3-6. Only places seeing 6+ are Catskills, Helderbergs, Berkshires and places well north.
Your elevation may help but I think most of Orange, Putnam, Dutchess crew see an inch, max 2. I think tonight is rain/snow mix and it depends on whether the period of snow on the backend tomorrow morning is legit.
I mentioned Catskills because you said elevated far N and W. I don't consider Sussex and Putnam counties far NW from NYC. As far as where the storm will impact the most I agree with everything you said, especially about I-84 corridor Fishkill-Beacon area. Southern Dutchess county definitely could go either way. I think Poughkeepsie on north sees 1-2.
Elevated N and W expecting more than a little, Catskills expected to get 5-8. Valleys should also get some snow, anywhere from 1-2 in MHV to 3-6 up towards I90.
I would say it doesn't look good for NYC metro and coast for Sunday night/Monday. Hell, it's dicey for me north of 84 where it's looking like snow/rain.
This storm really hasn't been that big of a deal in the HV. 2 inches of rain and max gust of 35. Right now 35 with some light snow that barely coated the ground and almost done.
33 with steady light snow right now. Still hanging on to an inch of snow OTG which will be gone by midnight. Hoping for a c-1 miracle with cold front passage.