HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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Western NY is in for it again. It could be really dangerous with winds gusting to 65 MPH, lake effect snow, and very cold temps. Power outages could be a real problem.
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CMC is usually the first to sniff these things out so it is something to watch.
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Yup. I trust nothing in the 10+ day range.
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Weren't those ensembles showing extended cold about a week ago and the talk was of a cold first half of January?
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If you look at the same timeframe on Pivotal weather it looks nothing like this. I'm not buying it.
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That's crazy. I would have expected Rochester to get something at least.
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Buffalo's totals this month are going to be insane.
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Why is it so damn hard to get a white Christmas in this area, especially in the HV? It's been a long time.
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I agree about the CMC. It's been very good and often is the first to recognize things before other models and it's generally consistent run to run. I look at the CMC/RGEM before any other models.
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I hope my friends in Michigan enjoy their blizzard. Bastards.
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The Jets are actually good. Wilson is not.
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The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good.
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00z CMC very similar to 12z. Woof.
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Unfortunately it's going to take a lot of evolving to move this baby east 1000 miles especially when all models are way west.
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It's over. These storms that cut like this don't trend east. It's not an inland runner. It's a strong low setting up shop in the midwest.
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Yes, I was just saying the GFS is normally stubborn and doesn't cave so quickly to other models no matter what the scenario. It usually takes a few days and not just 1 or 2 model runs.
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It hasn't been warm. I haven't been past the mid 30's for highs in a week and hit a low of 10 this week. December will likely finish average or slightly below average. It just hasn't snowed as much as we would like.
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Well that didn't take long for the GFS to partially cave. It usually takes a day or 2 at this timeframe.
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Yup. He's lighting a cigar as we speak.
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I was only kidding but it will still eventually cave. This weeks storm isn't close to the differences in next week's. It was more thermal and nuances with topography, elevation, downsloping, etc. The differences in next week's storm are huge.
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Or until GFS eventually caves. Whichever comes first.
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I don't and it's not just model output or this one particular storm. It's just a bad model that has had worse results after an upgrade. It's far worse than both the Euro and CMC. Look at what is happening with next week's storm.
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Just a minor difference of 1500 miles.
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What a disaster with today's runs. Don't worry though 18z GFS should show 2 feet of snow though.
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12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations
HeadInTheClouds replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
33 and mixed snow and rain. Big whoop.
