HeadInTheClouds

I think this is reasonable and close to what may happen.

UKIE

There is just no consistency or consensus even 24 hours prior to game time. Same thing all winter.

Hey, I would love to see it but my gut says 6-7 max. I'm interested to what CMC shows.

HRRR is usually in it's best range under 12 hours.

Nam is horrible and the run to run changes are laughable. Last night's 00z 3k gave me less than an inch and today's 12z gives me 10. I don't trust it one bit. RGEM has been the far better meso.

RGEM

It's going to be very difficult for the city on east to accumulate anywhere near 6 inches. This thing is flying and is basically over by late afternoon. I think the nam is way overdone in my area in MHV also. We are not getting 9-10 inches. It would be great by I don't see anybody in the area getting more than 6-7 inches N and W and far less NYC and east.

UKIE

GEFS Mean

Not as much QPF this run. It's done this before though.

It's still a very dynamic system with a surface low that deepens 25mb in 12 hours from 12z Saturday to 00z Sunday and it's still not done. I will also take snow any day over rain and severe weather, thank you.

For me it will and CMC was more than slightly east.

And you shouldn't because it's 48 hours out with multiple solutions. There has been an east trend though and the CMC coming east is huge.

From another board explaining why models may be trending slightly east. If you look west there are two things that may lend credence to the eastern soln. First is the pna ridge. It’s axis of over Nevada would allow for that eastern more soln. Going to have to watch that. Second is the energy crashing the W coast near Canada CONUs. This progressive Atlantic and Pac pattern tells me it will likely continue to push the entire mean trough complex along. This problem, energy crashing the west coast, has been a theme all winter so no reason to believe it won’t be a factor this time. In this situation it may lend a helping rather than hurting hand it pushing the entire this further east as we get in right if the timing is right.

GFS

It was cooler than 6z but still warmer than other models. It's a little wonky though with thermals. Later Saturday afternoon it has my area well below freezing at 850 and 700 yet my surface is at 33 with a NW wind and the low well east, and I'm getting sleet. Im not buying that right now.

Yup. Cmc has been the best with last several storms.

Rgem says hold on. It has been a little warmer than CMC.

12k

N and W gets Nam'd. Still snowing at 60 hours on 3k.

I think they are going to do well. Traveling on Saturday could be a problem though.

This was 00z Euro last night. I think it's a little aggressive but would love for it to be right. Can you post 6z?

Im not sure why you ever had 8+. That's not likely to happen but the system is trending a little east on latest guidance so I do think we see a little snow Saturday afternoon as low moves NE and colder air filters in. My forecast high went from 40 to 36. Euro is the most aggressive with the cold air and gives us 6 but not sure about that. Most models give us 1-3. Lets see what 12z's do.