HeadInTheClouds

UKIE

Nam 00z vs 18z. Still out of it's range but looks better.

Defintely but it's still the long term Nam.

What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am.

Im not familiar with anybody's sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so.

I think NWS snow estimates look realistic.

It's not a snow event for anybody in any sub forum lol.

Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree.

NYC will get snow in the beginning, 1-2, and then a lot of sleet/zr.

I think you're wrong.

On the flip side models have trended colder the last 24 hours at surface and aloft. Models also underestimate cold air to the north. A well respected poster on another board quoting a well respected met said "we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's. The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low. A well respected met taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over running event without any of the mid levels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier. It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast."

It's best to use 10:1 in this situation. Kutchera may not be accurate.

Anybody who sees no difference in the models in the last 24 hours isn't paying attention.

YUP

Pivotal weather maps don't count sleet as snow for the most part with other models. Where are your sources about UKIE snow maps including sleet? Funny how the NWS has nearly 3 inches in Rockland by 12z Friday. You might want to give them a call and let them know your thoughts.

850's were slightly colder and 2M temps were very similar though slightly colder north shore of Long Island.

It's slightly colder, yes.

It still showed snow from NYC on north. You didn't answer my question.

BS. The Euro and Ukie looked similar except for Long Island where they had a few inches. You still think no snow south of 84?

I don't know. Pivotal weather maps generally do a good job with the sleet unlike TT. GFS has Long Island snowing for 6 hours before changeover. I don't think that is going to happen though.

Long Island is not getting 6 inches like the gfs shows but I could see 2 inches on north shore.