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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    CMC still too warm IMO. Look at last 6 hours of RGEM. It gives more snow to NYC than CMC. Definite trend colder and south with snow on 00z's. Still 3 days out though but nice trends tonight.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    It's not even over at this time.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    Still going beyond 90 hours
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    A little wonky but does give metro area some snow.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    Nobody ever said this was going to be a NYC metro snowstorm but they can get maybe an inch or 2 on the front end and most of precip may fall as frozen. Go back to hugging the cmc.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    12z snowmaps
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    The soundings for the CMC are 6 hour increments. The CMC which is the warmest of the models still gives a couple inches well south of 84. How many times have we seen precip come in faster than modeled and a cold arctic high underestimated by models? How many? The moderate/heavy snows will likely be north of 84 but it's very plausible to see snow south of 84. Look at the 12z's, every model gives anywhere from 1-4 north of NYC up to 84.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    I’m 20 miles north of 84 and the warm cmc gives me 6 inches. I’m not buying the sleetfest for everybody. Places north of NYC and south of 84 will see some snow before changeover.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    Yup. CMC also had a lot of sleet for NYC.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    UKIE
  13. HeadInTheClouds
  14. HeadInTheClouds
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    Sure it is.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    QPF by me went from .74 12z to 1.15 on 18z and snowfall increased from 7 to 12. Who knows? It looked better at H5 for late next weekend also.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    Yeah, temp wise its been slightly above normal to date(1.4 degrees) and that includes a very warm December, but we have been shafted with the snow amounts.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    That map includes what falls Thursday night/Friday. Below is the map of what Euro shows for next Sunday. Right now it has zero support though.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes I know. I was just stating what the Euro was showing.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    The thing that stands out on that for me is Albany's 17.2 VS 40.5 average. I'm in the same boat, only 15.5 so far and well below average. Hoping I can make some of that up in the next month.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    It's just too early to say any thing is factual 4 days out. NYC could absolutely get a minor 1-2 inch front end dump of snow.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    FWIW Euro also has something interesting next Sunday last few runs.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    I'll take the 7 inches it gives me for sure but again way too early. Yesterday at 12z it was giving everybody .5-.6 liquid equivalent and today it's up to .8-1.0 for most. We track.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    Agree.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    They do favor northern areas. The higher your latitude the likely more snow and the changeover to sleet/ZR is delayed.
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