HeadInTheClouds

Exactly. Im near 84 and NWS Albany has my most probable snow accums at 4.4 FWIW.

It still gives N and W 3-6 so at least it's not zero.

NWS Albany has my most likely snowfall amount in Dutchess county as 4.4 with a min of 0 and a max of 14, so the goalposts are indeed still wide.

Definitely the Jets. They can't be trusted beyond 48 hours especially with a setup like this.

According to the 18z nam I'm going to have to drive to Newfoundland to see a snowstorm.

That was a laughable run by the 18z nam.

yes, this run cut my precip basically in half from 1.4 at 12z to .75, big difference.

It depends where you live. N and W of NYC gets nowhere near that on this run.

For me N and W it cut qpf in half so a little dicey with that run.

It's significant for N and W peeps. It was further west and N and W precip was more robust.

It's been a crap model for a long time but it got 1 or 2 things right this winter and people have recency bias I guess.

It's still over 3 day away, lol.

I wouldn't even look at the icon like ever.

It's actually west of it's 18z run when you look at the time stamp 29/06z. you're wrong.

This is all I have to say:

They have to distant cousins or something like that. They both ALWAYS harp on how it's not going to snow.

Is he related to snowman?

The low is the same position as 12z Euro at this time and 4mb deeper.

I wrote western ridge but you are right, they are talking about downstream ridge.

I thought this was interesting concerning the western ridge. The following is from the NWS Albany discussion: To add even more uncertainty to the forecast, Stony Brook Sensitivity analysis developed through CSTAR research suggests that the eventual track of the storm will also be sensitive to the strength of the upper ridge that develops downstream of the trough (as is usually the case with these large east coast storms). A stronger ridge will be associated with a storm track further to the west; this is seen in the Euro solution as well. Often, but not always, models underestimate the strength of the downstream ridge in the medium-range as they cannot resolve the diabatic ridge-building due to latent heat release. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it is certainly possible that this trend will manifest itself with this storm as well.

It gives NYC about 3 and N and W about 1. That's why.

No, just stupid, lol.

The surface low was only slightly west but H5 was markedly better.

It really is. Stubborn and stupid is no way to go through life.

That kuchera map is not that crazy IMBY. It shows a 14:1 ratio when my climo is 12:1.