HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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It will likely change to plain rain Monday morning around dawn but most precip should be done by then. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in Dutchess county. Still expecting 2-4 inches of snow starting around 10 pm before changeover to sleet and ZR 3-4 hours later. I think it snows pretty good in that small window and then maybe some snow showers later on Monday. I have included NWS Albany updated snow forecast which was slightly lowered.
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Maybe, maybe not. 3 hours of heavy snow could give us that total. I guess we will see how it plays out.
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I saw 84, my bad. I'll put you back on ignore and save us both the headache. It's still not a non event whether it's rain, mix, or snow. It will still have an impact especially with that wind potential.
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He posts the same bullshit for every storm. It's annoying and I'm not taking it personally.
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I posted what the pros at the NWS expect along and north of 84. Maybe you should give them a call and let them know your thinking. BTW 3-4 inches of snow plus sleet and ZR with strong winds is not a non event. Let me know what they say and when they are going to change their forecast after speaking to you.
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Along and north of 84 it's still going to snow for a period. About 4.5 forecast for Poughkeepsie with a low of 2 and a max of 6 expected.
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Yes everybody is going to mix with this setup but front end dump is definitely on the table for N and W. Surface temps are also important though when you look at sleet and ZR vs just plain rain. It may be that 50+ N and W doesn't get that much rain if cold air is locked in at the surface. It's something we just don't know yet and topography plays a big part in that. Remember it's going to be very cold this weekend.
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Thats not true. You can get a decent front end dump 50+ miles N and W with this setup, then mix, then maybe rain depending on how quickly surface temps warm Monday morning.
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Basically the same as 18z.
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This thread has seemed to have gone off the rails.
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CMC well inland also.
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The ensembles often have individual outlier members that skew the mean. The Euro ensembles for instance have a lot of coastal huggers and inland runners so the op does have support.
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Gfs is often on it's own. Horrible model.
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I hate suppression more than I do cutters. At least with a cutter you may be able to get something on the front end or back end depending on setup.
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I do but I just don't think it's going to happen. Both Euro and GFS also have the storm suppressed south. It's early but I think we may have to wait for next week. I hope things change because I have a lousy 3 inches so far this season.
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Really think the fat lady is singing about any hope this weekend for snow. Too bad because it's going to be cold. The ocean storm and the high are just not going to let it happen. Oh well, hopefully something happens next week.
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The CMC has shown a significant event next weekend for 4 straight cycles. It's been consistent with it.
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32 with freezing rain/rain. Looks like things are starting to melt a little. Sheet of ice on driveway.
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Yes, obviously. I don't trust operationals(especially GFS) beyond 72 hours. I just posted it for shits and giggles.
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Kuchera is even more fun to look at for the GFS storm. Some eye candy.
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But I read it was over last month.
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Only 2 inches here 20 miles north of 84. Glad to see so many did so well.
