HeadInTheClouds

It's still over 3 day away, lol.

I wouldn't even look at the icon like ever.

It's actually west of it's 18z run when you look at the time stamp 29/06z. you're wrong.

This is all I have to say:

They have to distant cousins or something like that. They both ALWAYS harp on how it's not going to snow.

Is he related to snowman?

The low is the same position as 12z Euro at this time and 4mb deeper.

I wrote western ridge but you are right, they are talking about downstream ridge.

I thought this was interesting concerning the western ridge. The following is from the NWS Albany discussion: To add even more uncertainty to the forecast, Stony Brook Sensitivity analysis developed through CSTAR research suggests that the eventual track of the storm will also be sensitive to the strength of the upper ridge that develops downstream of the trough (as is usually the case with these large east coast storms). A stronger ridge will be associated with a storm track further to the west; this is seen in the Euro solution as well. Often, but not always, models underestimate the strength of the downstream ridge in the medium-range as they cannot resolve the diabatic ridge-building due to latent heat release. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it is certainly possible that this trend will manifest itself with this storm as well.

It gives NYC about 3 and N and W about 1. That's why.

No, just stupid, lol.

The surface low was only slightly west but H5 was markedly better.

It really is. Stubborn and stupid is no way to go through life.

That kuchera map is not that crazy IMBY. It shows a 14:1 ratio when my climo is 12:1.

And the ratios are going to be high as well N and W. Climo up by me in Dutchess is 12:1 and I suspect it could be 15:1 or higher with this storm. Euro gives me 1.40 qpf. I'd sign for that now but do want it to come a tick west.

Rgem at 84 hours was a little quicker with the phase and position of the trough compared to cmc. That is what I was hoping for cmc but not there yet.

The RGEM looked very good so GGEM should be much improved.

The model we see is the operational. There are also 51 or so different ensemble members that provide different solutions and are usually looked at in the mid and longer term so he is saying just treat the operational like one of those and just another solution that may or may not be right until closer to the event. IMO operationals have a lot of variablility beyond 72 hours.

I got 1.5 inches of snow tonight. That may be more than I get from this, lol.

GFS was an improvement but still not good. Blah.

27 and still moderate snow but looks to be ending soon. Picked up an inch.

27 and moderate snow here, about 1/4 inch.

Thanks. I forgot the 18z only went out to 84 hours.

Thats only 12z Saturday so likely still snowing.