HeadInTheClouds

Up here in Albany visiting family. 31 with flurries.

Concerning the 6/7th time period, It's not just the 18z GFS showing a storm signal. The 12z Euro, Ukie, and ICON(FWIW) all showed a possible significant storm.

Yeah, like about on Thursday.

It had frozen N and W on other runs as well just not this much. I do agree that it is still way too early in the game but at least it may be something.

It did have something, the deepening low was just farther north than this latest run.

It's insane to run the GFS out to 384 hours. I don't trust any operational beyond 72.

Had a period of snow earlier that put down a dusting. Right now 30 with sleet and ZR.

31 with light snow.

30 and overcast. Not expecting much from this, .5-1 inch with some sleet and ZR. Hoping NAM is on to something tomorrow night as that seems a little more robust. It's been really consistent with it.

CMC had a similar evolution at 12z although a little further west.

Picked up 3/4 of an inch, looks nice. 26 and cloudy now. WWA for ZR tonight.

Same here a little north of Poughkeepsie. 28 with Light/moderate snow, coating right now.

And possibly HV. 27 right now.

I'm talking about before that storm. First 2 weeks of December there were some saying the fat lady was about to sing. I understand this winter not be anywhere near last winter's total but I do expect several snow chances. Last years D-J-F temps were above normal also but we managed some decent amounts. The average December snowfall in NYC is about 4 inches with less than a 25% chance of a White Christmas so it's not that great a month for snow anyway although this one has been very warm. Hopefully things get better next month.

Many people were throwing in the towel last December as well. I wound up with 60 inches, over 30 in February.

The next time I trust any operational beyond 5 days will be the first, especially the GFS.

This is a good point. Next 5 nights are forecast to be well below freezing at night up by me so that should help.

63 today, expecting a mix up here on Saturday.

That's nuts that they are still blooming on Dec 15th. Haven't see that in a while up here in mid HV. Last night had a low of 22 and still only 35 right now. Has central park hit freezing yet?

Picked up .5 inch of snow last night with a low of 23. 36 for a high today.

It's like night and day from where I live in the MHV to NYC metro and it's only about 75-80 miles to Manhattan. No leaves, already had a little snow last weekend, and it's gone down to 20* a few nights. Has Central Park hit freezing yet?

Euro also showing possible accums N and W.

Yup. I got 5 inches but it was spread out over about 16 hours and there were no problems.

I don't think there is a question the HV will be in the in 5-6 inch range, some spots may get even more. Up here in Dutchess county where I am 20 miles north of 84 it's been raining all day and approaching 2 inches. Main event I suspect will be 8pm-1am, something like that.