HeadInTheClouds

It's still decent. Slightly south of benchmark track. I'll take 2-4 right now.

Nice 18z Nam run FWIW

Much better than previous run. RGEM next.

Good luck with that. It's ridiculous to say the GFS nailed this storm except for the QPF. Thats like saying a goalie has good form and is square to the puck but then can't stop a beachball. I understand the precip gradient was always going to be very tight but nearly every other model had it much different. GFS brought some precip up to HV. It's a lousy model.

The other models weren't showing anything really for NYC metro. The GFS has consistently been a poor model. For instance it has nothing for the 7th threat while other globals like Euro, CMC, UKIE have been showing a legit threat. Guess who my money is on.

Yes, but the QPF parameter is the most important to snow lovers. Most other models gave nothing to very little for NYC metro especially mesos. GFS is a POS.

Forget about any snow in Rockland. Too far north.

Up here in Albany visiting family. 31 with flurries.

Concerning the 6/7th time period, It's not just the 18z GFS showing a storm signal. The 12z Euro, Ukie, and ICON(FWIW) all showed a possible significant storm.

Yeah, like about on Thursday.

It had frozen N and W on other runs as well just not this much. I do agree that it is still way too early in the game but at least it may be something.

It did have something, the deepening low was just farther north than this latest run.

It's insane to run the GFS out to 384 hours. I don't trust any operational beyond 72.

Had a period of snow earlier that put down a dusting. Right now 30 with sleet and ZR.

31 with light snow.

30 and overcast. Not expecting much from this, .5-1 inch with some sleet and ZR. Hoping NAM is on to something tomorrow night as that seems a little more robust. It's been really consistent with it.

CMC had a similar evolution at 12z although a little further west.

Picked up 3/4 of an inch, looks nice. 26 and cloudy now. WWA for ZR tonight.

Same here a little north of Poughkeepsie. 28 with Light/moderate snow, coating right now.

And possibly HV. 27 right now.

I'm talking about before that storm. First 2 weeks of December there were some saying the fat lady was about to sing. I understand this winter not be anywhere near last winter's total but I do expect several snow chances. Last years D-J-F temps were above normal also but we managed some decent amounts. The average December snowfall in NYC is about 4 inches with less than a 25% chance of a White Christmas so it's not that great a month for snow anyway although this one has been very warm. Hopefully things get better next month.

Many people were throwing in the towel last December as well. I wound up with 60 inches, over 30 in February.

The next time I trust any operational beyond 5 days will be the first, especially the GFS.

This is a good point. Next 5 nights are forecast to be well below freezing at night up by me so that should help.