HeadInTheClouds

I agree they both suck and all globals have been bad this year IMO. I still won't totally dismiss any model within 4 days.

Yes, thats why I was asking for you to clarify. Latitude will play an important part in who sees what.

What area exactly? 50 miles north of city should see some snow from second wave.

But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle.

Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the eastern CONUS. Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types. For now, we continue snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating some sleet and freezing rain may be possible. Also, some light to moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to 20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and upper 30s on Thu. Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to run above early FEB climatological normals.

I'm north of 84 and when both Euro and GFS show a period of possibly significant frozen precip only 5 days out I'm paying attention.

Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out.

Yes, after hour 330 it shows some snow and then deep freeze. What could possibly go wrong?

It's been consistent in showing a system for the fish. The 06z was only run to show a hit.

To add insult to injury 12z GFS takes low on the 7th OTS although obviously its way to early to be looking at that. In general I think GFS is a lousy model and they should limit it to 240 hours like the rest. What is the point of going out farther on an operational?

A sandstorm.

The NAVGEM and ICON, lol.

Yes it is but it's not like we haven't seen back loaded winters before. We can still get plenty thru mid-march, it's still winter.

I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for this weekend. It really does look it will be wide right with maybe light snow/rain in area. I think we need to wait until 2nd week in February to see something significant.

This is just common sense. I don't trust the models beyond 72 hours let alone a week.

Why can't he? He always does.

Where do I sign?

It's a lock.

That could be a really good spot for this one, west of NYC Metro and with some elevation.

NWS Albany talking about this as a system to watch. Temps are marginal at best especially for coast but to early to say it's not possible. Latest GFS similar CMC with decent snows north of city. I will definitely be watching this.