HeadInTheClouds

There is going to be a time frame from early afternoon until early evening when most if not all accumulation will happen. I still think central park sees a slushy inch or 2, just north of NYC 2 maybe 3, then further N and W into NW Jersey and HV 3-4, isolated 5.

Same here, 33 and moderate snow.

I don't. Keep up the positive vibes.

I think most locations including my area in HV are going to get their snowfall in a 3-4 hour period from early afternoon to dark, then mixing and/or a reduction in precip intensity will occur. IMBY I'm thinking 3-4 is a good call right now.

Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility.

Still looking like 2-4 30+ miles north and west of NYC.

Can somebody post Euro snow map if possible?

Was it ever going to be more than a 1-3/2-4 event for the coast? Not really. It's looking like a 3-6 event by me north of 84. It was 68 degrees last weekend so I'll take it and run.

NWS Albany latest discussion on the storm. Right now looking pretty good 40-50 miles N and W of NYC. Active winter weather expected to return on Saturday, as a primary cyclone is forecast to track from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. Southerly flow and isentropic lift will increase in our area ahead of the eastward advancing cyclone. Model guidance in fairly good agreement with regards to the track/intensity of this system. There is increasing probability for a moderate to heavy snowfall across much if not the entire region, as both 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance support this trend. Guidance indicating a Miller Type B system, with a secondary coastal cyclone developing Saturday night near SE New England. At this time it appears most of the precip in our area would be from the primary cyclone. With the southerly flow regime at 925-850 mb, local research indicates the maximum snowfall to set up across the southern Adirondacks, the Glens Falls/Saratoga region and the southern Greens of VT. While thermal profiles have shown a cooling trend, there could still be a chance of mixing for areas SE of Albany Saturday night as thermal profiles become borderline as the primary cyclone tracks just north and west of our area. Still too early for specific snow accumulation numbers, but will mention possibility of moderate to heavy snowfall in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

I'm having trouble connecting to tropical tidbits. Anybody else having this problem?

Dutchess county is certainly part of this subforum. I'm 75 miles north of NYC, not near buffalo.

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below: By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low. While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.

We all know the next 7-10 days are going to be above normal. Whats your point? It looks to get much colder after that though. BTW today I had a low of 17 with a high of 29. Felt like January to me.

I may be close to that. My normal split is 35/15 and I may be looking at a 65/55 this weekend.

He didn't say anything about that. He said that maybe people shouldn't have talked like the winter was over and the patio furniture was coming out when the calendar changed to 2020.

Good for you guys getting snow on the Island. 34 and sucking virga in HV.

It would be great if NYC metro and Long Island get a nice surprise from this system. So much talk on this board recently about about 60 degree warmth it would be nice to get a little snow.

That sounds about right. I'm 20 miles north of 84 with 13.5 so far which is about average. Albany(Capital region) has received about 30 so far which is half their seasonal total already.

The trend on this system Tuesday has been south but 18z GFS takes it way south and east. We all get bubkus on this run, lol.

Nah, this weekend was never going to be snow. Only model that showed any real snow was Euro for a few runs and then it corrected. At least it's something to watch before the warm up.

Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible.

Should I get the barbecue and patio furniture out?

Poughkeepsie area finished the month .42 degrees above normal and with 13 inches of snow. Not a bad month really.

A/O 12/27 Poughkeepsie area is still .9 degrees below normal for the month. Our normal temps this time of year are 37/18. Looking at forecast temps for next 4 days I think we will end the month normal to slightly above.

Lets cancel winter.