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HeadInTheClouds

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  1. HeadInTheClouds
    22 with moderate snow. 2.5 OTG.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    19 with moderate snow.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    It started snowing up here 20 minutes ago, now a steady light snow with a dusting, temp 20.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    Just overcast here in mid hudson valley. 21/3.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    18/2, feels like snow.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    For you in Rockland probably between 2 and 3pm.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    You aint kidding. 18 here right now with a forecast low of 7 tonight and high of 28 tomorrow.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes, and I think 3-4 inches is still a good call for us in Mid HV. I would be surprised with anything more than that.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    Latest discussion from NWS Albany below. Looks like 3-5 for most of lower and mid HV. North of I90 get 6+ A fast moving storm with favorable jet dynamics will bring a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall to the region. A cold airmass will be place across the region ahead of this storm. There will be impressive insentropic lift with strong frontogenetical forcing. CSTAR research indicates banding will be possible. Laterally translately bands occur with strong warm air advection and the low approaching from the west. Overrunning warm air advection snow will quickly spread across the area early Saturday afternoon. Once it starts expect it come down heavy with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. The bulk of the snow is expected to fall between noon and midnight. The highest snowfall amounts are expected across the southern Adirondacks, lake George Saratoga Region, Berkshires and southern Vermont where 7+ inches are expected. Secondary development is not expected to occur until Saturday night and off along the northern New England coast. So our snow will come from the primary low and with the southerly flow ahead of it some mixing with rain possible into the mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut late Saturday evening however the dry slot should also be moving in at the time.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    There is going to be a time frame from early afternoon until early evening when most if not all accumulation will happen. I still think central park sees a slushy inch or 2, just north of NYC 2 maybe 3, then further N and W into NW Jersey and HV 3-4, isolated 5.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    Same here, 33 and moderate snow.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    I don't. Keep up the positive vibes.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    I think most locations including my area in HV are going to get their snowfall in a 3-4 hour period from early afternoon to dark, then mixing and/or a reduction in precip intensity will occur. IMBY I'm thinking 3-4 is a good call right now.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    Who said the city is getting 6? 2 inches though is a definite possibility.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    Still looking like 2-4 30+ miles north and west of NYC.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    Can somebody post Euro snow map if possible?
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    Was it ever going to be more than a 1-3/2-4 event for the coast? Not really. It's looking like a 3-6 event by me north of 84. It was 68 degrees last weekend so I'll take it and run.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    NWS Albany latest discussion on the storm. Right now looking pretty good 40-50 miles N and W of NYC. Active winter weather expected to return on Saturday, as a primary cyclone is forecast to track from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. Southerly flow and isentropic lift will increase in our area ahead of the eastward advancing cyclone. Model guidance in fairly good agreement with regards to the track/intensity of this system. There is increasing probability for a moderate to heavy snowfall across much if not the entire region, as both 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance support this trend. Guidance indicating a Miller Type B system, with a secondary coastal cyclone developing Saturday night near SE New England. At this time it appears most of the precip in our area would be from the primary cyclone. With the southerly flow regime at 925-850 mb, local research indicates the maximum snowfall to set up across the southern Adirondacks, the Glens Falls/Saratoga region and the southern Greens of VT. While thermal profiles have shown a cooling trend, there could still be a chance of mixing for areas SE of Albany Saturday night as thermal profiles become borderline as the primary cyclone tracks just north and west of our area. Still too early for specific snow accumulation numbers, but will mention possibility of moderate to heavy snowfall in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    I'm having trouble connecting to tropical tidbits. Anybody else having this problem?
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    Dutchess county is certainly part of this subforum. I'm 75 miles north of NYC, not near buffalo.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below: By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low. While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    We all know the next 7-10 days are going to be above normal. Whats your point? It looks to get much colder after that though. BTW today I had a low of 17 with a high of 29. Felt like January to me.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    I may be close to that. My normal split is 35/15 and I may be looking at a 65/55 this weekend.
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