HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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NWS Albany Ice and Snow forecasts. Most of frozen precip falls as sleet in MHV.
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Don't underestimate .1 or .2 of ice. It could cause problems and you could fall on your ass.
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General comments like this are ridiculous in this situation. It's says no to ice NYC metro and Long Island, its shows significant icing N and W of there.
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Really tough forecast. NWS Albany isn't buying the .50+ ZR in my area and calling for about .20 ZR and 1-2 inches of sleet and then 1-3 of snow. We shall see.
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Honestly it won't be in it's best range until 12z tomorrow at the earliest.
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Nam is clueless. The wave is not going north of NYC.
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18z Euro precip panels
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People make these blanket statements about how the area is going to get this or that but don't realize that people in this forum are separated by 100 miles or more. Some places on the Island picked up 2ft with the latest storm and I got 2-3 inches. The climo is vastly different from eastern Long Island to Mid Hudson Valley.
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I looked at soundings. It's snow in my area from 12z on. They are available on TT.
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Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility.
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It certainly can wind up as some snow 50+ miles N and W. Ukie, GFS, and Euro all show that.
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For NYC metro and Long island yes, but for well N and W Ukie has us changing to frozen after midnight Thursday night. Hoping for sleet/snow rather than ice.
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No doubt, Any ice is a problem. I'm worried that some areas are going to get .50 or more of ZR. We just don't know where yet. I think GFS is too cold and CMC is too warm, using a blend of GFS/Euro/CMC is prudent at this time.
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When I said somebody is going to get a serious ice storm I didn't mean NYC in particular and the 1 inch is likely way overdone. You are right though, right now N and W most likely and I'm 80 miles north so I'm concerned.
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The only thing that was noticeably different was it backed off on icing over southern Jersey. It was still very aggressive north of there. I still don't believe the 1 inch of ZR in NYC metro although somebody is going to get a pretty bad ice storm.
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GFS and Ukie still cold and CMC trended slightly colder.
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You got that right. Im not sure if it's right but I hope so. The GFS tends to be stubborn when it locks onto something but then eventually caves to other guidance. It did that with the last storm.
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The farther north and west you are the better chance you have with this one. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so hoping for some snow after initial rain, then sleet/ZR. We will see.
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Maybe even Wednesday night. The Nam was atrocious in it's long range with the last storm.
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The front and wave or waves have plenty of moisture associated with this setup. The big question with this is how quickly the cold air pushes south and what precip type is the result and where. That is complicated and has not been resolved yet.
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That depends on where you live. Im north of 84 and it gives me plenty of ZR and sleet. Like I said its a battle and a long way to go on this one but I wouldn't be surprised if models continue to trend colder.
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GFS was a dumpster fire also. It had hardly any snow for the area, including Long Island, 48 hours before snow began.
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That artic high means business and models starting to pick up on it. Ukie was the colder outlier but ICON FWIW has trended significantly south and GFS also. GFS verbatim gives me a little rain to sleet to heavy snow. It's a battle and we are in the battle zone.
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That icing could be serious up here along 84 and north.
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12Z Cmc has also trended colder. Give area frozen precip after initial rain.
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