HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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This is why you can't jump off the ledge with each model run a week out with so much in play.
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CMC was great but this is one ugly run.
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It depends on what you mean by here because I could see both working out to some degree just N and W. Still too early to tell about the 16th.
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I feel the system on the 16th may produce more than the first one. That blocking means business.
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There is enough cold air for it to snow especially N and W. Wet bulbing helps too.
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Minor event, mostly N and W for the first one.
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It's fantasy land but we can pray to the weather Gods. I find it funny that yesterday people were lamenting how warm and wet the GFS looked mid-late month.
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CMC, LOL
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More than a few well north. CMC looking robust also.
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Shocker
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Yeah but it costs money to run it out to 16 days I would guess. Medium range to me is is 5-7 day time frame and I doubt there will even be a time where the 10 day period is anything but a low verification. 2 week time frames with op models will always be like throwing darts with your eyes closed. It serves no purpose.
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Some people actually think that.
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When what gets better? Verification scores 10 days out are low. To have an op model, and a crap model at that, go out 16 days is useless.
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This is the perfect example of why I keep saying that running the op out beyond 240 hours is a complete waste of time.
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The GFS is trash in mid term time frame and an absolute dumpster fire beyond that. It had rain up to Canada with next weekend system as late as 00z run last night and that was obviously not going to happen. I would take both the CMC and Euro over that crap model any day of the week in nearly any scenario.
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Gfs will cave. It will just take another day or 2.
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We know operationals are garbage beyond 5 days. I still have no idea why the GFS goes out 16 days. It's as useless as tits on a bull.
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Had light/moderate snow for about 4 hours then turned to rain around 10pm. Only got an inch mainly on colder surfaces most of which was gone by morning.
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32 with light/moderate snow. Nearly an inch on colder surfaces and just some slush on pavement.
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34 with moderate snow. Sticking on grass and cars but not pavement.
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36 with sleet/snow.
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Looking forward to a little wintry precip tomorrow night north of 84. Forecast is for 1 inch of snow before changeover to sleet/rain. Not much but it's only mid November. Right now 31* and headed down to near 20.
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And March. March is the new December. Already had 8 inches in March.
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January was 3.5 below normal and Feb was only 1.5 above. The heart of winter wasn't exactly a heat wave.
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22 and windy. Snow is done, measured 5 to get to 27 for the season. Still well below normal up here but with the 3 on Wednesday and today's snow March has been decent. I never bought those 9-10 inch totals the nam was giving me. It was just moving too fast. I got most of my snow between 9 and 1.
