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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    And it continues to prove my point. The truth will set you free.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    Remember what I said yesterday about believing the opposite of what the GFS shows. This is a prime example.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    I'm not liking these last few model runs at all. Euro was inland at 00z and CMC was a disaster with a major rainstorm. Icon also showed basically a front with rain. Anytime the GFS is basically on it's own it usually spells trouble.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    And? That damn model can't get things right 12 hours before an event. POS. I'm going to be like George Costanza and believe the opposite of whatever the GFS shows.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    Yeah, that sounds reasonable.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    Poughkeepsie's average is around 36-38 I believe. Albany is generally around 50. I'm 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and average about 40.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    It's disappointing for sure. I never thought we were going to get the GFS totals but I didn't think we were going to get nothing either. I was thinking 2 or 3 inches for a total. So far CMC/RGEM have been spot on. Maybe we get some light accums as storm pulls away later Friday/Friday night. Oh well, on to the next.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    36 and moderate rain.
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    34 and doing absolutely nothing.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    33 and light rain now.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    32 and light snow just started.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    Hanging tough at 32 and overcast.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    28 and cloudy. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here. I'm right on the Hudson in central Dutchess county about 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and could get anywhere from near nothing to 6 inches or more if thermals are cold enough.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    Yup. CMC/RGEM have been very consistent with downsloping/shadowing. American models not so much. It's a huge difference with only 24 hours before game time.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    Big difference between GFS and CMC especially in HV.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    00Z RGEM - a lot less and nearly nothing east of Hudson and it has been consistent with this.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    I think a lot will be determined by precip intensity at lower elevations. If it's heavy it could snow and when it is moderate or light it will rain. I still think Nam numbers are overdone at lower elevations. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    Dacks just got named
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    18z GFS won't back down with colder solution and higher snow amounts.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    Winter Storm Watch up in Orange county, obviously higher amounts expected in NW section and higher elevations.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    Yeah, NWS Albany was talking about downsloping and shadowing in the valleys. I'll be happy with 2 inches before changeover.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    12z Euro at 10:1. Kuchera map is not available on free Pivotal Weather so cut these amounts in half for our area.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
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