HeadInTheClouds

Not a total bust in Dutchess and Ulster is what I said. More of a bust in other areas like north of NYC and LHV where many models(Euro, GFS, Ukie) were colder and gave those areas snow. NWS was calling for 2-4 in those areas and many got just sleet. Most of the models have not done a good job this winter. CMC/Rgem have been the best and did a good job with this one actually.

The thing is no matter how some want to say it was a sleetfest in this area many places in Dutchess and Ulster got between 4 and 5 and some places close to 6. It may have been a little less than expected but it also wasn't a total bust.

Wednesday night/ Thursday is something to watch for. Northern areas probably favored on this one but it may be a minor/moderate event for some.

I mostly vented about the nam being way too warm and not correct with it's snow totals north, especially in and around I90. The Capital district was never going to get inundated with sleet and it was always going to get a 6+ inch snowfall. When the nam corrected in later runs to a more reasonable solution I said as much. Yes I did think LHV was going to get more snow than they got and Poughkeepsie area in MHV was going to get a 6 inch snowfall and we fell a little short. I was wrong about that. You happy now?

Yeah and? Albany reported 7 inches, Delmar 8. Places in Greene county which is south of Albany reported 7 and 8 also. So what if they got some sleet? The nam had them getting LOTS of sleet 2 days ago and hardly any snow.

This is true.

Models have been good at sniffing out events but they have been very poor with the details for the most part this winter. Often this season there has been no consensus even within 24 hours of event. Euro used to be the king, not it's as mediocre as the rest of them. I don't expect them to be perfect as each model has it's own biases and strengths, but I think they have been poor this winter and the American models have been the worst of the bunch even though nam was good this storm the last 6-7 runs once it corrected.

Actually it was 2 consecutive runs and it was within 48 hours of the event I believe. Shift around? It took sleet up to central Vermont, might as well taken it to Canada. In the end it was good though still too far north with the sleet. 45 minutes north of me received 7 inches and Albany area got 8-9.

I got 3.5 which ties the biggest amount so far this year so I didn't entirely miss out, although 45 minutes north got 7, and it took me 2 hours to clear driveway. It's white outside and has high moisture content so maybe it will stick around for awhile. 19 so far this season.

CMC/Rgem were pretty good I thought. Other globals(GFS, UKIE, Euro) were too cold with too much snow and the nam was giving Albany 3 inches and had sleet up to vermont before it corrected. Im not saying they all have to be perfect especially in complicated setups but this winter they have been pretty terrible for the most part.

There is just no go to model like the Euro used to be. They all suck.

It could I guess. 45 minutes north of me got 7 so you could look at it both ways.

Measured 3.5 inches of mostly snow, some sleet. A little disappointing but whatever. 19 for the season. My daughter who lives near Albany said they got about 8.

27/10 NW wind at 5

Yes, and NWS talking about 1-2 inch per hour rates overnight where it does snow.

Yes, that was my point. It was OTL especially along and north of I90.

You really want to play that game? Look at the forecast in your own backyard numbskull.

You should be the one bringing up other people's posts. Pot meet kettle. I could write a novel of your posts that were embarrassingly incorrect. I wrote that because it showed stupid amounts north of 84, like 3 inches for Albany and 1 for Poughkeepsie. It has since corrected to a more reasonable output especially in the Capital District. It is still the warmest of the models and did the storm happen already? We will see what verifies.

and isn't that exactly what happened at 00z vs 18z therefore it looked a little more like other guidance as far as snow vs sleet. I have seen the nam be too aggressive with the warming many times and it did correct somewhat at 00z.

UKIE

The nam is also known to be too warm at times also. 00z was different, with the primary not being as strong and secondary further south and it was colder. The bottom line is the output was far different from other models, particulary up north, and if Albany gets 3 inches I'll eat my shorts in Macy's window.

Did you look at the 12z and 18z. It was a joke. 00z was a big correction and is still a warm outlier particularly north of 84. At 18z it gave my area 1.5 inches and Albany 3. Every other piece of guidance gives north of 84 up to I90 anywhere between 8 and 12. Should we ignore all the other guidance?