Coach B

OHX am Disco on next week: "However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as first half of next work week progresses from a surface low expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid 20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation, but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation event."

Measured .2" on the snowboard at home southwest of Lewisburg. Just a dusting in town. Roads, even at elevation, are just wet. Very small flakes dominated with a temp of 32-34. Oh, and we're in school! The central counties in middle TN seem a little more stringent about closing than those both farther east and west.

I have been trying to remind myself while gazing at the long range that we were told a couple of things by these SSW experts: 1. They do not always lead to cold and snow for the eastern US. That said, they can still have a major effect on the pattern, most of us just don't really care if it doesn't deliver(myself included). 2. Cohen talked extensively about a trickle down effect for us. We are usually third in line on these deals anyway. Siberia/China are first and they had historic high pressure/cold a week ago. Europe is second and I just saw some buried cabins in the Alps and a bunch of crazy snow pics from Madrid. So maybe this shows up by February here. I think I remember reading there was often as much as a 30 day lead time on effects for us. Maybe we are rushing it?? I get it, even those of us who know better want to see some pretty maps on the ops or ensembles to feel better.

Measured .3 on the snowboard. Still snowing lightly, temp of 28. Some of the roads were snow covered when I was out earlier.

Ended up with 1.5" total on the snowboard. Secondary roads were awful when I was out checking for the school system last night. Got sideways twice coming off the big hill. Not sure how to shrink the pics to fit? Sorry, getting old and left behind on the technology.

Looks like the southern Plateau may get blasted if those heavy returns in NE Alabama keep on their current trajectory.

Just saw a picture on the Nashville news of a full size snowman in Summertown. OHX has now expanded the WWA across their southern counties.

I like that the 12k and 3k NAM as well as the RGEM are actually bringing some accums to even some non Plateau areas back into middle TN. This one is going to be close. Pretty good spread on the boom or bust potential for the southeastern half of mid TN and the valley locations in east TN.

Pretty good snow shower just passed through here. Wasn't really expecting it. Briefly whitened the car tops.

Webber has pointed out the likelihood for a greater percentage of Miller A's or hybrids with the potential pattern later in January and through February. Anyone willing to share what that might mean for our general area?

I'm about 30 miles north of the border and can confirm a mix of rain and snow pellets.

Sounds like they've shut it down for a couple of weeks by cancelling the games with Gonzaga and Notre Dame. At this point they might as well all get it just to get it over with.

Sorry just now seeing this. Nope, I can talk cows, chickens, bees, and firewood. That's about the extent of my country living.

49 at 1:00 in the afternoon on May 6th. Ughh! I'm going to have to bring another load of firewood to the back porch for this weekend.

We are way behind. Had some frost this morning so not a big deal except for the lack of early season stuff. Supposed to get it tilled tomorrow, then will have to fence out the chickens. Hopefully will get much of it in the ground by Friday. MIL says we are getting our own tiller for the tractor next year.

Still waiting on the first tomato, should be pretty soon. Have had some sweet corn in the last couple of days. Wife has put up a bunch of green beens, but they have been a little buggy this year. Lots of squash, cukes, and zuchini. She has been dehydrating some if the squash and zuchini. Was a little behind on the okra so its still a ways off.

Good luck with the chickens. They were my first foray into farm animals, and now several years later I've still got them. Make double sure to keep them out of the garden. They are awful on seedlings, but great on post season cleanup. They can make a mess if they get into places you don't want and it is a balance to find the right amount of free-range/pen time. Once you get used to fresh greenery fed eggs the store bought ones are hard to go back to.

Nice write up on the New Year's Storm from 63/64 from OHX and HUN: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=96629&source=0