Coach B
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Everything posted by Coach B
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My temp has dropped into the upper 50s with steady rain in S mid TN. Sure doesn't have the severe feel??
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Appreciate all of the play by play from y'all. There seems to be much disappointment/frustration out there from many on our current pattern and the forecast for the next two weeks. However, my hope is that we can time up a slow tour through MJO phases 8 - 2 just in time for our peak winter period in mid to late January. All those of us outside the mountains need is a week or two of the goods.
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Chattanooga!
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I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.
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I was supposed to get mostly freezing rain with the first batch where I am south of Nashville, but I've got mostly sleet with lots of snow grains. I'm holding at 25 for now.
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I think the all snow forecast will be wrong, but I hope it's right!
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Only a bit of melting here outside of Lewisburg. Temp has been stubborn to move much above freezing. Took a hike to the top of the almost 1200 foot ridge behind the house. Guessing between three and four inches up there. House is about 990 and had 2" here. I've got to remember to add a snowboard up there for comparison.
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I'm sure I had a bit of melting/compaction overnight, but I ended up with right at 2" this morning. Fantastic little event for many of us. Sounds like the models were spot on with the finger of slightly heavier accums back into southern middle TN and for the Plateau.
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Ground now totally covered. Probably between a quarter and half an inch. Temp 33. I'm southwest of Lewisburg at about 1000 feet.
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I've got all snow outside of Lewisburg. Temp now down to 34.
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Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard.
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I don't know how to describe that trailing energy, but it seems some of the models are keying on it for any hope of accums west of the Plateau.
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TT's Positive Snow Depth Change always looks more realistic to me:
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OHX am Disco on next week: "However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as first half of next work week progresses from a surface low expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid 20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation, but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation event."
