Coach B

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Everything posted by Coach B

  1. Totally agree! I'm a big fan of the Fall blowtorch. Great time of year to be outside in our part of the country. As long as we can keep it below the mid 80s and we don't have major fire problems I say get out and enjoy it. There is plenty of cold, dark, and dreary to come in winter even in bad years.
  2. Still waiting on the first tomato, should be pretty soon. Have had some sweet corn in the last couple of days. Wife has put up a bunch of green beens, but they have been a little buggy this year. Lots of squash, cukes, and zuchini. She has been dehydrating some if the squash and zuchini. Was a little behind on the okra so its still a ways off.
  3. You really need to know your microclimate when it comes to last freeze/frost data. I'm 50 miles or so south of Nashville and have had more than one frost into May in just the last 15 years. Don't think we have been to freezing in May since I've been here, but I know its happened in the past.
  4. Ive been in and out of the bands in middle TN all day and have yet to encounter a rain drop. Drove thru the heavy band near Nashville this morning. It was ripping between Murfreesboro and Lebanon. Caught back up with it in southern mid TN later. Both times there was some sleet/snow pellets at the onset. Now getting a light sleet/snow mix with the next batch. Edit: right after I posted went outside to a rain/sleet mix. Lol!
  5. No doubt the conservative approach is what on air folks should do at this lead time. I just get tired of the "more north and east" mantra that the Nashville mets use. I get that it often works out that way, but they beat it to death even when the models show otherwise. Wow at what the CMC is doing in NC!
  6. I like Paul. However, the middle TN mets often overuse/overplay the "north of 40" thing. Sure it works at times, but anybody watching these models run knows there is potentially a much different possibility going on. Even the NWS does it at times if you read the AFDs.
  7. Haven't the Euro weeklies been advertising a cool down during about the same period that the GFS tossed out today? We'll see what happens. While we have been absolutely roasting so far, climo says everything is still on the table for at least three or four more weeks. As far as the stove, Ive burned less wood this year than anytime since I started burning full time 15 years ago. You know its really warm for Jan and February when you can't at least light a small fire in the evening to knock the chill off without running everyone out of the stove room.
  8. I have seen quite a few positive winter posts on twitter in the last couple of days. Unfortunately, they are all about cold and snow in Europe and Asia!!
  9. Most of us know that a +PNA generally leads to cold for our area. But to link it to actual historical data over a long period of time takes it to another level. Thank you John! Fascinating reading.
  10. 06Z GFS lost it totally. Its still there in some form on four or five of the ensemble members. Certainly not a very strong signal at this point. I guess it still gives me a reason to check in on the models run to run, which is more than I can say for the last three or four weeks.
  11. The 12Z GFS has a remarkably similar solution. But I don't think I'd be jumping on any wagons just yet.
  12. That look is far enough west for most of the state to at least keep an eye on it. Upper Cumberland and mountains look good. Would like to see it slow down and come in later in the evening for any potential minor accums in non-elevated areas. Have to take whatever we can get in a winter like this.
  13. Jax, you got a link to that? Interesting info. So the last two weeks in Nashville is comparable to normal deep winter weather in New Orleans. lol
  14. That 51 storm in Nashville is likely the most epic winter storm in Nashville history. There was 4.86" of liquid equivalent in the sleet/snow/ice mix. 11.9" of total ice/snow. Sounds like four or five inches of brick like sleet/ice/snow combo covered up with five or six inches of powder! Snowcover from that one storm lasted at least 15 days and it took some 70 weather in mid-February to fully get rid of it. In addition January was actually above normal and February was normal in spite of three days of sub-zero to begin the month.
  15. Congrats to you guys who did well last night. I ended up with 2" yesterday. The snowcover no doubt helped it drop to the current temp of 7!
  16. I'd guess its actually outperforming expections in west and middle TN. Our expectaions were pretty low though. lol
  17. Up to 1.5" in Lewisburg with snow picking back up. Temp is 18.
  18. Close to 1" in Lewisburg. All roads are snow covered/packed. Temp of 19. Still snowing.
  19. Snow beginning to accumulate here in Marshall county.
  20. Big jump for northern Miss and AL as well. Its keying on the secondary wave coming in thru OK and AR. We've seen it on some of the other models, but the GFS really beefed up that wave this run.
  21. All I can see is the mean out to hour 96 which has exactly jack squat from Memphis to Nashville. The mean is 1-2" for most of east TN.
  22. Looks ever so slightly up for most of TN but down for everyone south and east of us.
  23. Agreed. The ensemble means have been as good as could be hoped for at this point. I wouldn't worry much about individual op runs for awhile yet. If the ensembles start trending away in the next 48 hrs that would be cause for concern.
  24. Excellent summary! This is as much as we could possibly hope for at this point. All options are indeed on the table as we move towards prime winter weather climo time for our part of the country.