SENC

Brother had a "intense" couplet come ashore here in Surf city,, taking out alot of trees..

Alot of Folks are going to be caught Unawares, here on the SENC Coast with this..

Breezy & Rainy here on the Coast.. Typical Nor'Easter..

I reside almost, (On the sound) in Surf City.. Water temp(s) BEACH FRONT, are at 80F (depending where), here at Surf City it's @ 79.3 F...East/North East winds are already screaming, gust(s) up to 30MPH..Wind Average2 min ago NE 20 mph5 min ago NE 21 mph10 min ago NE 21 mph15 min ago NE 21 mph30 min ago NE 22 mph60 min ago NE 19 mphHaven't checked the tides yet,, though on Sloop Point Road, down by the Marsh Bridge, It's already being (almost), over topped.. (Mid-Tide).. It's already looking "Ugly" on the beach Strand..

Remember that OLD term? A far as *coding & Modeling*.. Garbage In,, Garbage Out.. Equals a Pre-fabricated (NOT Necessarily TRUE ), Result..

Here Today, in SENC, (Topsail Island & beaches).. Wind was "Ripping" earlier this morning.. Currently 71F (76F earlier today about 12PM ).. Pressure 29.81 in Visibility good Clouds: & Cloudy Dew Point 61 F Humidity 73 % Precip : trace

No One talking about TS Freddie? Dangerous Cyclone Freddy Taking Aim At Africa There is concern that Tropical Cyclone Freddy will make landfall next week on the eastern coast of Africa with high winds and heavy rain. &&& Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be headed for the record books Tropical Cyclone Freddy formed in Australian waters about two weeks ago and is still tracking across the Indian Ocean, putting it on track to challenge two world records. The tropical low that would become Tropical Cyclone Freddy initially formed late on Saturday February 4, before being upgraded to a category 1 tropical cyclone on Monday, February 6. Freddy initially moved to the south until it was about 660km northeast of Broome, where it took a turn to the west. While in Australian waters, Freddy posed no threat to the mainland, Christmas or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, even as it became a category 4 severe tropical cyclone with wind gusts of up to 265km/h. It eventually left Australia's region of responsibility on February 14, as it tracked towards the west across longitude 90 degrees east. More @ link---> Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be headed for the record books (weatherzone.com.au)

Flurries here IMBY..

Confirmed report, Moderate sleet in/around Tabor City, (Columbus county), NC

decent thunder storms ya say? /sarc

Nice blustery Day on tap here on Topsail Island.. 66FPressure 29.8 inVisibility 0~5 milesClouds CloudyDew Point 64 FHumidity 97 %Rainfall (so far) 0.15 inWind(s) are Quite "blustery"

Maybe, I'll go take a look see as it rolls on by..

Updated ON the ground #Truth..Temps are crashing? temps have falling 4 degrees too 33F, (RATES WILL overcome) or so it's said..Dynamic cooling, taking place..Rain & snow MIX, has switched over too ALL SNOW! woot woot!Starting to stick on elevated surfaces.. Dusting thus far..Updated Obs..33FPressure 29.75 inVisibility 1.9 milesClouds Cloudy (Heavy overcast?)Dew Point 32 FHumidity 92 %Rainfall, Snowfall 0.03 inSnow Depth 0.02 (RAIN) Remains too be seen..

[Quote] Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the ground.[/q] We (atmosphere),, is saturated here on the Coast, Light Rain falling ATM..

Forecast Temps here on the Coast, Busted.. 5 Degrees Lower than Modeled.. It got too 45F Today.. Onset of Precip Is (alot) Earlier than expected, (Was 10 PM or so).. Temp(s) have now fallen too 42F with light Rain in My Forecast area(s).. Light rain right now.. NWS Local Office Disco has mentioned Thunder snow being Possible,, (Locally)..

Virga here on the Coast.

Gale & (Possible) WSW here on the coast here shortly.. First cup O' Joe this morning.. Looked @ the Radar.. Showed freezing precip over my head.. Went out & looked.. Sure enough It's Virga falling, from over head. Through the (semi) broken clouds.. You could see, (Jet contrails/Cirrus clouds) are FLYING.. @ (30K?) feet West too about due North east? Current temps are @ 32F Winds North at 5mph..

30F.. Here on the Coast light freezing Rain

Here on the Coast, Hit the freezing mark @ 8am, (roughly).. Now at 31.. Pressure 30.31 in Visibility 9 miles Clouds Cloudy Dew Point 29 F Humidity 93 % Winds NNE @ 17~20 mph..

Not happening..

Now cast thing..

KILM.. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Shallow arctic air moving into the area Thursday night. A very chilly rain falling will start to turn to freezing rain from NW to SE, not long after midnight over far interior zones and closer to daybreak along the immediate coast. And while the forecast has not changed much in the last 12 hours or so there still seems to be a distinct possibility that the vertical thickness of the cold air may be on the rise and at least part of the area winds up with more of a sleet storm that a near full duration freezing rain event. If so this will cut down on the potential for ice accretion. Sleet certainly poses travel hazards all its own, but tends to be less hazardous than pure FZRA. This is due to the fact that the warm nose now looks less pronounced and a broad baroclinic zone nearly stalls parallel to the coast. The immediate coast may also stand to see lower ice amounts due to a brief afternoon rise (barely) above freezing. Freezing rain persists along the coast for most of Friday night while inland the cold air thickens in height and sleet and eventually snow become favored. Most areas appear to change over to all snow as the precipitation tapers off leading to small accumulations nearly area-wide that may total almost a half inch over interior/west of I95 counties. Due to the uncertainties discussed above all of the Carolina NWS offices have decided to hold off on upgrading the Winter Storm Watch at this time.

Ice, Ice baby..

I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account.. (Just My 2 pennies here).. .. As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F here on the Beach's..