SENC

17Z hour 5?

17Z HRRR running.. I'll post as it comes in.. (If it's ok with the crew)..

16Z HRRR

KILM Local AFD finally updated after 3 Days of nothing.. Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/... as of 300 PM Friday...wet weather expected through this period as storm system tracks up and off the southeast coast. While the NAM was the cooler of the models, still holding to an all rain event for our local forecast area with wintry mix remaining just west and north of US through this period. The column will basically remain saturated through this period with a significant amount of rainfall expected. The track of the sfc low will remain off shore as it parallels the Carolina coast through Sunday reaching offshore of the Cape Fear coast sun evening. This will maintain stiff cool north-NE winds at the sfc while a moist onshore flow increases above the sfc, with a more SW flow in the mid to upper levels as shortwave digs down into the southern states. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift to drive widespread rain across the area. The best dynamic cooling will come Sun morning as low tracks across northern FL, but still looks like local area will remain in all rain. The overall thermal profile points to all rain throughout our local forecast area at this time, but the coolest NAM forecast points to possibility of some mixed pcp Sun morning. The NAM sounding for lbt Sun morning shows a decent shallow cool layer below 2k ft and warm nose drops toward 0c for a few hours, but the grounds will be wet and warmer and do not expect any impacts at this time. The best chc of seeing any mixed pcp will be in the far western reaches of Marlboro and Robeson counties. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times with rainfall total 2 to 3 inches with possibly greater amounts, especially along the coast. The main impacts of this storm will be widespread rainfall, coastal flooding, river levels rising, and marine hazards. The coastal flooding should occur during Sunday morning's high tide, with potential for minor to moderate tide levels. Rivers will rise during this period, with potential for minor river flooding into early next week. Not expecting any flash flood problems at this time as rainfall should be steady and ground is not saturated from any previous rainfall. Although we are not expecting any wintry mix impacts in our local area, the temps will be running between 35 and 45 for much of our area through this period, producing a cold rain. The brisk northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. && Long term /Monday through Friday/... as of 300 PM Friday...as low pressure lifts off to the northeast Monday, shortwave energy will dig down around the base of mid to upper level trough over the southeast. The models are hinting at low pressure developing off the southeast coast Mon night which should hold onto clouds and pcp a bit longer, as it wraps around the back end of the low. This will coincide with decent cold air advection. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out of the question Mon. Temps will not rise past the 40s most places on Mon in cold air advection with temps remaining cool through mid week as high pressure builds in on the back end of the low. ….. Post a lot of Pictures Our upstate Folks! My Step=Daughter is in Pinelevel (just southEast of Raleigh), With Her GF currently, I told Her expect a "pastebomb"..

@Orangeburgwx& I are all set I think..

My current Dew point is @ 31F..

that's just,, cruel, frozen sweat, I mean sleet, Sweating frozen sleet & Swearing,,, I mean sleet, (YOU know what I mean!).. While crying ice cubes! Lets have another one..

Even I got snow that run..

GFS out too 72

Critical thickness out to Hour 84..

NAM (freezing precip).. Out to hour 84

freezing rain profile.. out to 57, ,, I'm just trying help ya'll folks out here.. Honestly.. use these in addition to the Maps posted above..

Namnest out to 12Z (60hours)..

I HOPE the above Images give folks some Hope, I assume this is the "onset" of the Storm.. 72 Hours out.. I tried to get All the Relevant Images..

next 3

This will be a 2-part post Image heavy.. I hope thishelps.. 18Z GFSFV# run(ing).. Says 84% complete) I took it out to Hour 72 in all images..

So are we "Mostly" in agreement yet?.. Some need Sleds & Ski's .. While others, (South & East of the I-85) Will need either Life jackets, or a Ice-breaker, type of Noah's Ark for the upcoming event? @Orangeburgwx & I will need Life-Jackets AND A ARK.. Let me know If I need to pick you up "buddy", @Orangeburgwx, I'm prepared to go "goose" hunting.. I'll swing by & pick ya up in this..

I forgot the /SARC tag..

I read the Whole Blog.. Nice thinking Outside the Box, considering the "upstream" ramifactions on Our Local Weather.. Thoughts on this @griteater??

you need a Oculus Rift!

Maybe We can get a "BOMB-O-Genies" (Rubs Magic Lamp) yet still.. Me and @Orangeburgwx are "hopeful"..

Well this time around there will be Lotsa QPF to break ya'lls fall!

Thanks for this @Wow, shows quite a bit of "variables" in these Forecast(s),, Quite a complex System.. Lotsa "players" on the Field ATM.. Realistically, anything is still on the Table at "Gametime" ,, Will this be a "Run out the Clock" to the Last Moment in the "End-Zone"?? 4th & Goal w/ .01 on the clock? While down by 2 points? Until We see the LP position sets-up/transitions in the Gulf, or around New Orleans, into Florida, Anything is still quite possible? Including "Bomb-O-Genesis" Off the SE Coast A-la Jan 3~4 2018? (Yes; fantasy) I know but still,, it could somewhat be on the Table if the LP gets further south? Say off Jacksonville to Daytona Beach? Asking for a "friend"..

Looks "somewhat" better for Me & @orangeburgwx , on the backside, We "might" see "something"..

@Orangeburgwx, We have a 1 in 10 "chance"..