SENC

Happy New years everyone.. At this point, I'm goona move too Portland or Seattle Wash.. They are getting MORE sun etc than I am in Wilmington.. Lordy... I feel like I'm living in the PNW!.. (Pacific NorthWest)

examples.. On the "extremes".. What have you got @LithiaWx?? Cold as a Witches...… T**Ts ,, First picture Or.. Secondly.. second Warm winter.. And Bikinis

cold & cool & cold? depends on the length of the Bands of color.. from the trusty Farmers Alamac Full story here.. https://www.almanac.com/content/woolly-bear-caterpillars-and-weather-prediction# Keep your picture for Posterity, see what happens.. It would really be a cool thing to Discuss! As to upcoming weather! @LithiaWx take your pic,,,, open it in paint, go too "resize" use 50 X 50 until it's "fits" into the forum limits.. (I hope I could help)..

OH MY, If the GFSFV3 comes to Fruition..that is some pipebusting cold, even down to ILM... after the 3rd.. Plenty of chances at wintery fun down here!

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Can I quote you on that? We'll see how this ages over time..

Well, the FV3-GFS is HINTING for something possible happening..

I'm "experiencing" Extremely Light snow Flurries" ATM, Pixel sized flakes, But,, it IS SNOWING here in WILM!

Thank you for the Kind words.. Wish I could report something other than wind driven Cold Rain though, it is, what it is living around ILM.. that's life.. I feel "Our" probabilities here in SENC & SC are Certainly, "elevated" to get a Wintery event over the course of this Winter.. Hope your "pregnancy" goes well for you & your Sig other on a healthy Girl..

@Orangeburgwx We just may get a second chance. (I saw a few big wet sloppy flakes about 5:30 am this morning, so theres that)… Local AFD here. Concerning the ULL.. However later tonight a deformation zone and or east to west 850-700mb frontogenesis band develops within the complex mid level pattern. This area will take up residence just along our northern zones or close proximity to. Although deep moisture will be limited, the dynamics of this feature will allow showers and or areas of rain to develop moreso during the day Monday. I don't expect anything heavy or any wintry precipitation, but the extended duration of light rain and or showers could add up to quarter to half an inch or so. Don't expect too much movement in temperatures with the main storyline being much cooler Monday as cold air advection behind departing surface low pressure warrants. (lets hope things trend COLDER!)..

Our Local NWS has this too say.. I think as this Storm overperformed the UUL will also?

Oh My look at this Station report.. (Here in Wilmington.. ) Talk about that Amazing CAD!

Shades of the 2017, bust.. Just IMOP,(and I was rooting for ya'll!)..

HRRR total snow accumulation is NOT good, 10-1 (Kuch) It just finished..

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out to 10

ok like this? trying to figure out the timing part

ok I'll give it a shot..

Grit & Mods skip panel 8 and wait a few frames?

2M temps & Precip panels(next frame)

17Z hour 5?

17Z HRRR running.. I'll post as it comes in.. (If it's ok with the crew)..

16Z HRRR

KILM Local AFD finally updated after 3 Days of nothing.. Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/... as of 300 PM Friday...wet weather expected through this period as storm system tracks up and off the southeast coast. While the NAM was the cooler of the models, still holding to an all rain event for our local forecast area with wintry mix remaining just west and north of US through this period. The column will basically remain saturated through this period with a significant amount of rainfall expected. The track of the sfc low will remain off shore as it parallels the Carolina coast through Sunday reaching offshore of the Cape Fear coast sun evening. This will maintain stiff cool north-NE winds at the sfc while a moist onshore flow increases above the sfc, with a more SW flow in the mid to upper levels as shortwave digs down into the southern states. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift to drive widespread rain across the area. The best dynamic cooling will come Sun morning as low tracks across northern FL, but still looks like local area will remain in all rain. The overall thermal profile points to all rain throughout our local forecast area at this time, but the coolest NAM forecast points to possibility of some mixed pcp Sun morning. The NAM sounding for lbt Sun morning shows a decent shallow cool layer below 2k ft and warm nose drops toward 0c for a few hours, but the grounds will be wet and warmer and do not expect any impacts at this time. The best chc of seeing any mixed pcp will be in the far western reaches of Marlboro and Robeson counties. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times with rainfall total 2 to 3 inches with possibly greater amounts, especially along the coast. The main impacts of this storm will be widespread rainfall, coastal flooding, river levels rising, and marine hazards. The coastal flooding should occur during Sunday morning's high tide, with potential for minor to moderate tide levels. Rivers will rise during this period, with potential for minor river flooding into early next week. Not expecting any flash flood problems at this time as rainfall should be steady and ground is not saturated from any previous rainfall. Although we are not expecting any wintry mix impacts in our local area, the temps will be running between 35 and 45 for much of our area through this period, producing a cold rain. The brisk northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. && Long term /Monday through Friday/... as of 300 PM Friday...as low pressure lifts off to the northeast Monday, shortwave energy will dig down around the base of mid to upper level trough over the southeast. The models are hinting at low pressure developing off the southeast coast Mon night which should hold onto clouds and pcp a bit longer, as it wraps around the back end of the low. This will coincide with decent cold air advection. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out of the question Mon. Temps will not rise past the 40s most places on Mon in cold air advection with temps remaining cool through mid week as high pressure builds in on the back end of the low. ….. Post a lot of Pictures Our upstate Folks! My Step=Daughter is in Pinelevel (just southEast of Raleigh), With Her GF currently, I told Her expect a "pastebomb"..

@Orangeburgwx& I are all set I think..