SENC

#MeToo..

Various Model Run(s) show My area(s) SENC, getting a dusting & pasteing.. looking back at Historical records.. Seems We get a "decent" pasteing every 3~4 years here, in Jan~Feb, so yeah,, were due.. Wilmington, NC Snowfall Database since 1870 (weather.gov)

No Snow for you..

06Z JAN 21 (+174 hour) GFS was.... Interesting..

Temp(s) are crashing here on the Coast as I type, In the last hour, from 55/54 too 44 & falling..

In My (Untrained eyes) looks the Deform band is starting to set-up just NW of Fayettenam..

NO, SLP/ULL off the coast (yet),, i'm here, (On the coast),, nothing happening yet..

Thats what I'm watching looking at.. Looks to be about 50 +/- miles SW of Florence, SC..

Looking @ Radar, ULL looks to be around between Columbia & Florence SC, (Not yet transitioned off the coast)

(Local NWS) for My Coastal area(s).. .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will impact the area with cold and blustery winds today, with increasing clouds and isolated showers, followed by widespread showers tonight. The showers may change over to, or mix with snow and sleet from I-95 eastward across interior SE NC, tonight into pre-dawn Saturday, before moving off the coast just prior to daybreak Saturday. No accumulation of snow or ice is expected. Drying with fair and cool weather can be expected over the weekend. A less intense system may bring rain to area Monday night and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Dry slot lifting NNE, will bring infusion of cloud `re- fill`, after which by late afternoon, upper cold pool rotates across NE SC and SE NC, bringing widespread showers from west to east, and some of this apt to change over to -SHSN and IP in the evening as NW winds bring bolstered cold air advection. `Cold air chasing moisture` will see overlap, to bring brief frozen pcpn tonight, favored over interior SE NC. Accumulations of ice or snow not anticipated on roadways, as temps on the concrete surfaces are likely to melt quickly, anything arriving frozen. Will see what 12z data brings in terms of -SHSN/IP adjustments, that will shape messaging into the main issuances this aftn.

Can (I) assume the ULL is making the "transfer" ATM? To the Coast? We went from Sunny to VERY cloudy Skies, in the past hour.. Cloud deck has Lowered, & looks (Ominous) AND NWS is now calling for a "mix" here on the Coast, Later this afternoon/tonight..

looking at the various Mesoscale Models, & soundings, (for My area(s)),, I *MAY* see some token Flakes, MIX, or a plaster crush.. As the ULL transfers to the coast & deepens.. Wouldn't mind some "token flakes" too see..

EBS/NWS EXTREME ALERT (Take shelter NOW! ) Holly Ridge/Hampstead, NC, just went off for My area, Tor. Warning until 12:30

This was the coldest morning of the cold wave across the interior Southeastern states. Temperatures in Talladega reached 1 degree, 4 in Birmingham, 6 in Atlanta, 9 in Crestview (Florida), 11 in Pensacola, and 13 in Tallahassee. It was absolutely brutal in the North Carolina mountains with -18 degrees recorded in Banner Elk, -7 on Grandfather Mountain, and -5 in Blowing Rock.

1989 RDUX baby once more in My lifetime... I was 23~24 then? It was when My oldest Daughter was "conceived".. Christmas Coastal Snowstorm: December 22-24, 1989 (weather.gov) Temps in the Zeros for Days.. I'm watching that Baha Low.. Oh My showing Muh Age.. I still recall awesome snowstorms in the 70's..

Warm nose,, other wise Bring it!

i'm so sry, this is OT but I gotta share.. (15) WildTurkeys - YouTube

Going over on 441, freezing rain fog Early in the morning..

Visited Cades Cove, visited Clingsmans Dome, etc, beautified places, i envy you folks up in the High Mountains, (as much as ya'll envy the coast)..

missed this just by a couple days.. I knw I've not posted in Awhile, perfect temps in the 70's with (freezing) temps in the Low 20's.. dern it I cannot insert files.

Breezy & Humid down here on the Beaches, gusting to 25~30 Max..

Morning Folks.. Another beautiful Day on Tap for the Coast! 77/54 Currently 54F.. (Loving this Pattern Change)! Clear Skies, No wind(s) to speak of.. Well outta the North @ 2mph.. Your current Beach Conditions.. Water Temp is still at a toasty 84F Winds light WNW @ 4 mph.. Waves/swell, 1ft and the Ocean looks like a lake.. Honestly, This September, with the Pattern change, feels like, the "Fall" Weather when, I was Young & growing up in the 70's.. Starting school and there was a chill in the air in the mornings.. Unlike the past several, Sept. & Octobers, (like last year) We were still being "BAKED" under 90F+ temps and Dew/Humidity's near 90% .. This is certainly a VERY Welcome respite.. Lordy, I'm almost tempted to turn on the HEAT this Morning!

53/72 Currently 68 & breezy.. Carolina Blue Skies.. Winds out of the N @ 10mph On the Beach... NE Winds 15~20, gusting to 30MPH.. Waves: Lets go Surfing! Nice Swells this Morning 6 too 7 feet, Kinda Choppy, (Due to Wind), though VERY Surfable!

NHC Disco/Update... Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm remains strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and northeast of the low-level center. A combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but it now seems to be moving. The current initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward later today. This motion should continue for a couple of days, taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night. After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This change in the pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is fairly similar to the previous prediction. The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially on the west side of the circulation. Since the shear is not expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected through landfall in 36 to 48 hours. After Beta moves inland, steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower. Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite. Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED