eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Yesterday's mid-Atlantic snowstorm had a ton of GOM moisture out ahead of the trof just pumping northward into a wall of cold air. We won't really have that luxury with this one. Here we need to rely on the dynamics of a rapidly deepening SLP and moist easterly inflow. The main precipitation shield is not likely to extend very far NW unless this really wraps up.
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Nope, you're not whacked. The previous run was better. Little bit of wishcasting going on.
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Maybe it goes negative earlier in time, but it doesn't look like it does so earlier in geographic location. I don't care if it does negative tomorrow if it does so in Nova Scotia. I don't hate the look, I just liked previous runs much better.
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We'll happily take our 2-6" with decent ratios, but that NAM run is not what most are looking for. Also no sign of the kind of trend we're looking for. Flatter, less wave spacing, later developing, and SLP further offshore.
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Maybe some were fooled by the earlier arrival? The 18z looked pretty clearly less impressive aloft to me.
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We get mostly light snow on the 18z NAM. Widespread couple of inches. Probably decent ratios. The trof is less sharp, late developing mid-level lows, SLP offshore.
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It's unfortunate that twitter is obsessed with QPF maps. They make a lot of people who should know better seem meteorologically ignorant. And they make the general public confused and angry.
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It's not you. - Nova Scotia
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You don't even have to look at the surface to see that guidance has shifted everything east. Look at H5 - best PVA is SE. The surface is just a reflection of the upper level divergence/convergence. Good thing is that if this sharpens up 10 %, the SLP ends up 100 miles NW. There will be plenty more changes.
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Still lots of options on the table. But it seems like the upper ceiling decreases with each model run that doesn't increase the amplitude of the LW trof. Still warning snows potential almost everywhere.
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We're dealing with a little bit of a transition from the initial inland surface reflection and associated precipitation in PA to the developing coastal low. It's possible I-95 or just inland sees a bit of a precipitation minimum as the transition skips over this area and refocuses closer to the coastal. The precipitation shield as modeled looks to be shrinking and tightening as the SLP winds up.
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Intense lift for a couple hours.
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ORH east would get hit pretty good for 4-6 hrs on that run.
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Yeah the 12z is a little less sharp than 06z aloft. This run it kind of matches inter-model consensus. Mostly all snow for the entire area. .25-.5" QPF. Clips eastern MA with heavier stuff.
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The heaviest precipitation has been modeled (GEFS, GEPS) along and south of I-95 for several runs with the heaviest in eastern NE. All major models have snow to the coast except the 6z NAM. So those graphics look a little funny. Ending at 12z Friday takes out most of what falls in NE. But I think those probs. heavily weigh members of the NAM model family...? Maybe the NAM is on to something. There is plenty of room for this to hook even further NW with a neutral tilt and vortmax in AR/MS by 0z Fri.
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As I clearly said, if you overlay the 80 hr GFS with the 84 hr NAM they are very close in most key features - unusually so. If you cannot concede that, you are being unreasonable IMO. The NAM does not have any more time to deepen. On NCEP, the GFS is 2mb deeper, 4 hours earlier, in nearly the same location. None of the rest of what you said makes any sense. It doesn't matter anyway, since we're 3.5 days out and it will change every 6 hours. I just think your original comment exaggerated a little bit.
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It's true we shouldn't be paying much attention to QPF at this stage. But this 36hr QPF image tells the tale of where a late developing coastal storm blows it load. Most would sign on for this type of outcome. Ensembles also give some indication of a higher ceiling. But let's not go crazy building up unrealistic potential based on the currently modeled features.
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All I'm saying is the GFS has almost the same negative tilt, same vmax placement, same jet core and positioning etc... which is why it develops a very intense SLP - low 960s or something - in the Canadian Maritimes. The NAM and GFS are not typically so similar 84 hours out. Maybe the NAM would go even wilder, but they don't seem so far off to my eye.
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If you overlay the 500mb vorticity chart of the NAM at 84hrs with the GFS at 80hrs, they look pretty similar considering the lead time. The NAM is maybe a touch sharper and there's more ridging both up- and downstream. But still very similar. So the GFS should be a reasonable estimation of what the NAM run might have led to. In this case, a deep and powerful storm in the Maritimes.
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We're not even looking at QPF. H5 and H7 tell the tale. Nice storm but it doesn't get going until higher latitudes.
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Classic for Fredericton, NB maybe. Too late for most.
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Glad the GFS joined the party. It actually looks a lot like the NAM. Still a late developer for everyone except maybe eastern Maine and the Maritimes. Still really good to see a semblance of consensus this far out.
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Kind of immature and late developing mid-levels on the RGEM. Even on the much sharper NAM, the mid-levels haven't taken off by the end of the run. They look like they would really get going thereafter, but mostly for the benefit of eastern NE. The quick forward motion also limits the potential somewhat. Plowable would be more than acceptable.
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The NAM has the vortmax further south than 18z at the end of the run and it's sharper. Nice run. That would lead to a snow event for most of the area. The limiting factors are the quick motion and the relatively undeveloped or late developing mid-levels. If the trof digs further south and matures sooner, the chances of significant snow increase, along with the possibility of mix, or even rain. Overall I think the guidance right now looks promising for snow on Friday - maybe even plowable.
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I would maybe put the odds of a 3-6" storm somewhere in the NE at 50%. But the odds that our region will get that range is probably less. Most snow events don't work out from 4 days out. That doesn't mean it's not a decent snow threat... just that the likelihoods are always low until the short range.
