eduggs

I follow that same area for skiing purposes as well, but I don't fully agree with your analysis. The ICON, GFS, and CMC were clustered fairly close together for several days. Only the ECM showed a stronger primary SLP holding on and sending mixing into NVT and NNY. Yesterday the GFS shifted a bit towards the ECM, but the CMC stayed in the southeast (faster 2ndary development) camp. It's a bit difficult to judge since it changes every cycle, but I would say the ICON has adjusted similarly to the GFS. From NW to SE the order has been ECM, GFS, ICON, CMC... with the NAM now the furthest NW as we approach shorter ranges. I have not noticed the ICON having a "weak" bias relative to the other mid-range models. Certainly it has less of a tendency to amplify minor shortwaves than the NAM. But from what I've seen it's fairly middle of the road in its upper level synoptics and surface reflections. Regardless of its specific biases, it is slightly less accurate than the CMC and UK. It's one of the best mid-range models in the world, but clearly on the 2nd tier.

0z EPS looks great. Lots of left leaning individuals and a robust mean QPF total. GEPS similar.

Great 0z cycle. GFS, CMC, and even ICON are not that far off aloft. Big time threat. I'd ignore the kuchera snow output for now as it can only lead to disappointment.

I think the 12z EPS looks excellent for late next week. I couldn't really draw it up much better at this stage unless I wanted to risk mixing with a direct hit. I guess you could ask for slightly longer duration if you were really greedy. But it has high end potential, only modest (for this time range) spread, and lots of good hits among the individuals.

ICON, EC, GFS, and ~ 25% of ensemble members have offered snowstorm solutions over the past 2 days for late next week. There is clearly some inter-model support here. Very tenuous with the PV evolution though.

CMC would work.

Every storm is unique so each favors a different area. Trying to fit everything into "patterns" and storm types like "gradient" or "SWFE" is way too simplistic. There is just too much variability and randomness.

I believe the EPS and GEPS 10-day (240hr) mean total snow got into the 13-15" range for the metro for a few runs. Can't confirm the highest GEFS total for NYC, but some areas were over a foot for run total (384 hr).

You are aware that the GEFS is run every 6 hours right? And therefore the mean total snowfall at 10:1 also changes every 6 hours...

It's hard to tell if the UKMET would turn the corner, but I like where it's at for the end of the run. Big time threat there. Statistically we're probably looking at a hit 1 time in 5 here. A big hit maybe something like 1 in 8. Major snowstorms are uncommon and still more likely than not to miss even with favorable synoptic features in place. The evolution of the elongating PV will determine the outcome.

Perfect GFS run but 8 days out. Peaked too early . 0z ICON was heading in a similar direction. Obviously key to get the PV lobe to split off and dive far enough south and west to give room for a ridge near the coast.

The AO, EPO, PNA stuff is like vodoo. If you are a true believer, you might see a causal connection to an outcome in hindsight. But those parameters are simplistic, numerical representations of a very complex atmosphere-ocean interaction. They are merely broad descriptions of characteristics over a very large geographic area. The correlations to local weather outcomes are very tenuous. Our weather, storm tracks, and rain vs. snow are local phenomena. The details of synoptic progression and evolution matter far more than the state of the indices.

It's uncommon for sufficiently cold air (to generate ocean-effect snow) to advect from the east. It's pretty cool to see it happening today with the high in Quebec, coldish air in place, and a moist easterly flow.

Storm track is driven by regional weather features not global or continental-scale indicies.

Can we have this happen please?

But it seems to be missing in EPA and WNJ.

What's up with the explosion of returns in CT? Just flurries here.

Looks sweet in SNJ tonight! Nice. I think that area has had more SN+ obs this winter than some northern areas have had in total since 2020.

It's too early to give up on next week. Plenty of hope on ensembles still. Even Saturday could end up snowy.

Could be a pretty sharp cutoff. I'm cautiously optimistic for Monmouth County, NJ across to the southern shore of LI. But I'm not too excited for NENJ to Rockland Co. NY. NYC right on the boundary between plowable and nuisance.

The 850mb low track is more critical than the SLP. The 850mb low tracks inland along the east coast until it reaches near NYC. This is the reason eastern coastal areas briefly go to a mix or rain on that depiction.

The 0z EPS included only a few members with SLP that tracked west of us. A few more that tracked close enough to mix, and the majority with an ideal track or east. None would be considered cutters. GEFS has only 1 close pass. All options are still viable at this range, but a miss east has to be considered the more likely outcome at this juncture.

It's light - maybe a tenth, but not 0.

Everything always looks clear in foresight. And then in hindsight we can see what went wrong: block in wrong location, too warm, southeast ridge too strong, western ridge not amplified enough etc. If only we could see exactly how things would evolve over the next 10 days. Then we would know exactly when to get excited.

Isolated severe?