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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    A slight downside to colder solutions is that they are also shifting a little drier. I think we'd take that tradeoff. And there should still be enough moisture for a significant period of wintry precipitation should it slide far enough south.
  2. eduggs
    The UK looks a touch colder than 12z... a little more ice and snow into or near the metro. Not nearly as cold as yesterday's 12z, however. And the front does not penetrate southeast as fast as on the GFS. Still a solid run though.
  3. eduggs
    The CMC is colder and further southeast with the SLP than 12z. Can't see how much frozen gets to our area yet. Gonna have to check 18z too.
  4. eduggs
    It's a nice thought. But I have a bad feeling if this trends south on other guidance it will end up BOS cashing in again... especially with an extended period of easterly flow Ocean enhancement, while we get rain to freezing rain. Regardless of who cashes in snow-wise, it would be great if this trends towards a primarily wintry event for our region. That would be a big win when the overall synoptics could easily favor a warm solution.
  5. eduggs
    What a weenie run on the GFS!
  6. eduggs
    Yup. Nice and cold. The northern stream "shortwave" shifted slightly east, forcing a continued slight flattening of the height field. Probably slightly less QPF than the more amped models, but continued colder. Like it!
  7. eduggs
    You're obviously in a much better spot than most of us for this one. I think you have a great shot at an extended period of wintry precip. But I still expect that the primary snow axis will be something like Ithaca to Saratoga. I'd like to see the EC shift BGM to ALB and then AVP to POU. Huge shifts would be nice
  8. eduggs
    The height field ended up slightly more meridional on the NAM. Same thing on the ICON. That caused the SLP to gain more latitude. The GFS was much flatter... particularly 12z. I think the NAM will be more right than the GFS here. But I hope I'm wrong.
  9. eduggs
    Yeah it's a pretty good moisture feed for a dampening wave. Lots of areas should get pretty significant snow over a relatively long duration. It just appears probably not us... again.
  10. eduggs
    This map is overdone is parts of Morris County. There were definitely places that got below 4". The screw zone has really set up over Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris Counties so far this winter. These areas pretty much missed out on every event. Too far west for the two big coastal storms and too far south to stay frozen for the mixed event that hit Sussex and Orange County.
  11. eduggs
    I was not. That must have been incredible. I've maxed out around 20" while living in several places dating back to the 90s.
  12. eduggs
    ISP reported Heavy snow for 6 straight hourly obs. PVD is at 7 hrs and BOS is at 8 hrs and counting. That's sick. I don't think I've ever personally experienced more than 3 hrs HEAVY SNOW consecutively outside of the Mountains - and I've been around a few decades.
  13. eduggs
    Half inch here since 8:30am. BOS gets half inch in 10 minutes
  14. eduggs
    The BOS radar just pisses me off. I don't think I've ever experienced anything like that. Never in the right place at the right time. No risk of rain or taint, no risk the band just passes through, and hour after hour of cold powdery dentrite dumpage during daytime on a weekend!! I haven't experienced even moderate intensity of snowfall at any moment during daytime this winter.
  15. eduggs
    Wow, nice! That's more than double what I have. Must be some downsloping off the highlands? 8" is pretty significant snow. Nothing like that around here.
  16. eduggs
    Measured about 3.5" in central Morris County. Relatively minor impact here. Only light snow observed. Could be a little subsidence going on locally. It has been a winter of light events. But it has been a perfect Saturday morning for long snow walks!
  17. eduggs
    The heavy snow bands with this really set up exactly where we expected for the past few days. No big surprises so far unlike previous storms. Looks beautiful for the immediate NJ shore across to most of LI. Wow! And it's such a static radar so no worry that the band will quickly move through.
  18. eduggs
    Interesting mesoscale enhancement in the terrain of the Catskills and Taconics and also a mesoscale band in central NJ. Maybe a little downsloping in parts of NNJ. Pretty minor event up here so far.
  19. eduggs
    Was hoping for days this would end up tucked closer to the Outer Banks at this stage. Didn't happen. Well modeled all along as an offshore low. Still could be a really good one for many.
  20. eduggs
    That's a good start! It looks like NYC is going to be straddling the edge of heavy snow for several hours. Close call on really good stuff. Solid dusting off to the west. All surfaces are covered, but rates are light so far.
  21. eduggs
    The radar already appears to be showing where the sharp gradient will set up right along I-95.
  22. eduggs
    Such glorious looking runs for LI to ECT to BOS. Gonna be some serious banding in there somewhere. There are also hints of an outer deform band from coastal NJ through NYC to WCT. If this materializes, it could kind of pivot in place on Saturday.
  23. eduggs
    NAM, EC, UK, CMC actually all in pretty good agreement at this point. With a large QPF gradient, small shifts in the precipitation shield will have a big impact on totals.
  24. eduggs
    So true. I think of it as being tucked into the armpit between NJ and LI. But like you say it's relative to location of interest and also previous runs. Funny thing is we use the SLP as a reference point for model shifts, but the SLP doesn't even generate precipitation. The track and evolution of lift and moisture (e.g, PVA and 700mb RH) determine precipitation. But we barely look at those other features.
  25. eduggs
    Yeah it's all relative. No model runs have been tucked. Even the furthest NW ens member isn't really tucked (well maybe one or two EPS members over the past several runs). This is an offshore low. Fortunately the mid level lows get going early enough and the trof takes on a significant enough tilt to wrap moisture and lift mechanisms pretty far west of the SLP. That's a good thing for most of the coastal plane since it keeps everyone snow.
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